As the prime minister no doubt learned doing his English degree at Cambridge, it all depends what you mean by winning. Election television describes the winner as the party that wins the most MPs. By that definition, the current Electoral Calculus prediction makes Andy Burnham the winner. Thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system, with a lead of less than two percent over Reform UK in the polls, there is a 63pc probability that Labour would be the largest party.
By the alternative definition of winning as gaining an absolute parliamentary majority, the forecast shows that Burnham would fail by sixty seats to gain a secure hold on Downing Street for another five years. His predicted lead is only fifteen seats ahead of the combined Reform UK and Conservative total of 251 seats. Thus, the analysis predicts that there is an 84pc probability that Labour would fall short of winning the 326 seats required for a parliamentary majority.
To govern on its own as a minority government, Andy Burnham would need the active support of another party. With a predicted total of 35 MPs, the Scottish National Party is in a unique position. If a Burnham government promised to give the devolved Scottish government the right to call an independence referendum at a time of its own choosing (that is, when it thought it could win), the SNP could support a Burnham government remaining in government for three years – the time needed to enact the transfer of power that the SNP longs for. Moreover, it would not want seats in a Burnham Cabinet because its aim is to become independent of Westminster. The probability of Labour winning enough seats to secure a deal with the SNP is 8pc.
The Liberal Democrats, with a predicted 69 seats, may also be able to decide the fate of a Labour government that comes first in seats but falls short of a parliamentary majority. The current prediction shows a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition has a 21pc probability of together winning an absolute majority of MPs. If Labour did not want to negotiate a pact, with the Lib Dems, they could join with the Conservative, DUP and Reform parties to carry a vote of no confidence and force another general election.
Ideologically, Andy Burnham's big-tent appeal to Labour voters has many policies that overlap with Lib Dem MPs and voters. To win Lib Dem participation in a coalition government, Ed Davey would need the support of the Liberal Democrat party membership. It would want a firm guarantee that a coalition government would introduce proportional representation. Burnham has voiced positive views of PR as a means of strengthening popular involvement in government.
Since all parties except the Conservatives are committed to proportional representation in one form or another, failing to win the most votes would not upset Andy Burnham's ambitions. He could remain prime minister for eight years and gain an entry in the history books by being the prime minister who promoted the most radical change in the electoral system in more than a century.
Professor Richard Rose's new book, The Disruption of the British Party System: A Guide to the Next General Election is published in paperback by Manchester University Press.