A YouGov poll in the Times of 26 February puts national support for the Independent Group (TIG) at 18pc. This is 4pc higher than the previous YouGov poll, and nearly double their average support in yesterday's poll of five polls.
There has to be come caution that this is an outlier, until it is backed up by other polling. But if it is correct, it would point to a big jump in support for TIG and their predicted number of seats. The proprietary Electoral Calculus model for the breakaway group estimates that they could win around 78 seats nationally, assuming they became an official party and stood candidates in most seats.
The new party is occupying similar centre ground to the Liberal Democrats, so there is an obvious possibility that they could form an electoral pact (or an even deeper alliance). A simple electoral pact would mean that the two parties would only stand a single candidate in each seat (either a Lib Dem or a TIGger), depending on which was more likely to win the seat. Assuming that the seat's voters transferred their support to the joint candidate, then TIG could win 91 seats, with the Lib Dems winning 22. Overall, their combined total would be 113 seats, which would be only thirteen seats behind the Labour party.
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats No Pact | Pred Seats With Pact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 43.5% | 318 | 36.0% | 353 | 343 |
| LAB | 41.0% | 262 | 23.0% | 134 | 126 |
| TIG | 0.0% | 0 | 18.0% | 78 | 91 |
| LIB | 7.6% | 12 | 6.0% | 15 | 22 |
| UKIP | 1.9% | 0 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 1.7% | 1 | 4.0% | 1 | 1 |
| SNP | 3.1% | 35 | 3.1% | 46 | 45 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 4 | 0.5% | 4 | 4 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 | 18 |
This needs a succession of big 'ifs' to come to pass, but the new group could just be snapping at Labour's heels to become the official opposition. Heady thoughts for a group that's less than two weeks old.