On Tuesday 3rd November, Americans return to the ballot box for the 2026 midterm elections. Of the plethora of offices up for re-election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. At the previous election in 2024, the Republicans won 220 seats to the Democrats 215, with 218 being required for a majority. While the observant will notice the fractional nature of the current Republican majority, the fragility is exacerbated by the vote share split in the previous election where the Republicans received 49.8pc to the Democrat's 47.2pc.
Current polling averages place the Democrats on 50.4pc, with the Republicans on 41.4pc (22-27 October 2026). While polls should be taken with a pinch of salt and given due consideration, the most recent CBS/YouGov poll placed the Democrats on 53% and the Republicans on 45% (21-23 October 2026).
Certain elements of cause and effect should be taken into consideration when assessing possibilities and probabilities in relation to this election. Historic gerrymandering has led to many seats in the House becoming uncompetitive safe seats for either the Republicans or the Democrats. This means that regardless of how well the Democrats perform on Tuesday, the scale of defeat facing the Republicans will be tempered by the artificial chopping and changing of congressional lines.
A good example of the effects of gerrymandering can be seen in the 2012 House election, where the Democrats won 48.8% of the vote and 201 seats, with the Republicans winning 47.7% and 234 seats. While this was predominately a consequence of re-districting following the 2010 US census, it goes to show how much of an electoral impact these changes can have. It is also worth noting that this is not exclusively a Republican issue, with Democrats also historically partaking in the practice.
Despite the potential influence of re-districting and historical polling errors, we can still comfortably predict a blue wave to sweep over the lower house. The swelling of support for the Democrats is not an outlier, rather a clear observable trend across all pollsters. It is also exacerbated by the collapsing support for President Trump, whose own approval rating has dropped to 34%, with 61% of Americans disapproving of their president (The Economist/YouGov, 14 October 2026).
If the Democrats win the House, they will be doing so for the first time since 2020. Like their victory in 2018, this would allow them to check Trump's domestic agenda and scrutinize his handling of the executive branch. While Democratic influence will be constrained to the legislature, it will ensure that Capitol Hill runs very differently come January 3rd. The balance of power, however, will be decided in the Senate.
| Party | Seat Forecast | Seat Range |
|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 239 | 228-278 |
| Republican | 196 | 157-207 |
On Tuesday 3rd November, 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate are up for election. Senators are elected for 6-year terms, with a third of the chamber up for election every 2 years. Of these 35 seats, 22 are being defended by the Republicans, with Democrats defending 13.
While Senate elections usually only elect 33 or 34 members per election cycle, the resignations of JD Vance in Ohio, and Marco Rubio in Florida (from which they resigned their positions as senators, in order to take up the positions of Vice-President and Secretary of State in the Trump administration) means two extra states are heading to the ballot box. The last time the majority of these seats were up for election was 2020, in a different, but remarkably similar political climate. Like 2020, this election will be dictated by a strong anti-Trump voting coalition.
After the previous election cycle in 2024 the Republicans controlled 53 of the 100 seats in the Senate, with the Democrats winning 45, supported by 2 Independents who align with the Democratic caucus, but are not official Party members. This means that Democrats need to flip just 4 of the 22 seats being defended by Republicans in order to win the Senate. With polling looking favourable for the Democrats, the possibility of flipping the Senate is very real. The most recent CBS/YouGov poll gave the Democrats a nationwide eight-point lead over the Republicans 53pc-45pc (21-23 October 2026).
Key seats to look out for include Maine, Michigan, Texas and Alaska. If Democrats are able to hold seats like Michigan (where Abdul El-Sayed is running to replace the former Democratic incumbent), and win in previous Republican strongholds such as Maine, Texas and Alaska, the Democrats will be in for a very good night.
While states like Texas and Alaska may seem like fairy-tale targets for the Democrats, James Talerico is currently leading in 4 of the 5 most recent polls in Texas, with an average of 49.4pc to the Republican's 46.8% (23-30 October 2026). A similar story is unfolding in Alaska, where Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is ahead in all 3 rounds of the latest polling put out by Alaska Survey Research. Peltola averages 49pc of the vote to Sullivan's 47.3pc (Alaska Survey Research, 26-29 October). Four of the five most recent polls in Maine also have the Democrats ahead of the Republicans, with the aggregated average placing Democrats on 49.8pc to the Republicans 45.3pc (21-27 October).
While polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt, the winds of change are directional. The Democrats are set to make gains, but will they be as successful as pollsters currently predict? Historically, the polling industry has had issues accurately measuring right-wing support, meaning that it is very plausible for the margin of error to fall in favour of the Republicans. While Democrats look set to take the Senate, it could be closer than pollsters are anticipating. A prolonged public narrative of Democrats being expected to win congress, could lead to a deflated turnout for progressives, working in favour of the Republicans.
| Party | Seat Forecast | Seat Range |
|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 51 | 48-58 |
| Republican | 47 | 40-50 |
| Independent (Democrat aligned) | 2 | 2-4 |