Tactical Voting 2025

This page first posted 24 September 2025

Summary headlines:

• Major poll of over 10,000 asks voters about their tactical voting intentions
• Strong anti-Reform tactical voting could cost Reform over 60 Seats
• Over a third of Labour voters say they would vote Conservative to keep Reform out

This poll has featured in The Times and the Daily Express.

1. Introduction

Since the 2024 general election, Reform UK have consistently enjoyed a strong lead in the national polls, doubling their support from 15pc to 30pc in about a year.

This dramatic rise comes as the party capitalises on the political vacuum left open by an unpopular Labour government and a Conservative party that is struggling to rebuild its footing.

But even with 30pc support, that means that seven out of ten voters prefer another party. And some of these may be quite opposed to Reform.

This raises the question of whether Reform may be vulnerable to the same tactical voting push by voters that gave the Conservatives their worst-ever election defeat last year. Electoral Calculus does not support or endorse any particular tactical voting campaign, but we try to measure and predict whether there will be any tactical voting, and assess what its likely effects will be.

In that spirit of analysis, we have worked with Find Out Now to ask the public about tactical voting, whether they would consider doing it, and in which situations. Find Out Now interviewed 10,990 adults from 1-8 September 2025. The questions asked were:

• Likelihood to vote, to focus on those voters likely to vote
• Current voting intention (benchmark)
• Hypothetical voting intention to discover true 'first preference' party
• Various hypothetical A/B scenarios about how people would vote if there were only two (specified) parties who are competitive in their seat.

The aim is to find out, for example, how many Labour supporters might vote in a seat which is a contest between the Conservatives and Reform. Would any Labour supporters vote Tory to keep Reform out?

2. Summary voting intention

The table below shows the basic results from the two voting intention questions. The first just asked people how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. The second asked instead how they would vote if all the parties were equally likely to win the seat. We call this the "first preference" party, which can differ from current voting intention for those voters who are already thinking tactically.

Respondents who are unlikely to vote, are designated as non-voters.

The results are consistent with current national polling by Find Out Now, showing a clear Reform lead over Labour. They also show only small differences between current VI and first preferences. Except that Labour has less 'first preference' support (16pc) than its voting intention (20pc). This suggests that Labour already has some benefit from tactical voting, possibly as a rollover of anti-Conservative voting in 2024.

Other parties have less difference, although the smaller left-wing parties have more first preference support compared with VI. This suggests that some Green Party and Your Party supporters would vote Labour where their parties are unlikely to win.

But we can explore these behaviours in more detail with the A/B scenario questions.

3. A/B Scenario Questions

England

Let's look at England first. We started by asking people how they would vote if their seat were a contest between Conservative and Reform. Here's what people said:

• Over a third (38pc) of Labour supporters would vote Conservative to keep Reform out. Over half (53pc) would stick with Labour, with only 6pc choosing Reform.
• Lib Dem and Green supporters behave similarly, but Your Party (YP) supporters dislike both Conservatives and Reform too much to vote tactically.

For Labour-Reform battles, people said:

• Most Conservative supporters favour Reform (52pc), with only 11pc choosing Labour, and 37pc staying with the Tories.
• Lib Dem, Green and Your Party supports mostly choose Labour, as would be expected.

For Lib Dem-Reform contests:

• Conservatives prefer Reform (43pc) over the Lib Dems (25pc), with 31pc unchanged.
• Labour, Green and YP supporters clearly prefer the Lib Dems and are likely to vote tactically.

And for Conservative-Lib Dem fights:

• Most Reform supporters (56pc) will stick with their party, and only a third (34pc) will vote Conservative. Just one in ten would vote Lib Dem.
• Most Labour, Green and YP supporters would vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats.

In summary, most tactical voting follows the expected left-right division. The main exception is that a third of centre-left voters will vote Conservative to defeat Reform, and that Reform supporters are less keen to support Conservatives than vice versa.

Scotland

For Conservative-SNP contests, Lib Dem supporters prefer the Conservatives, Labour supporters prefer the SNP, and both Reform and YP supporters are less inclined to vote tactically.

For Labour-SNP contests, most non-SNP supporters prefer Labour. Except Reform supporters who remain unmoved.

For Lib Dem-SNP contests, Conservative and Labour supporters mostly vote Lib Dem tactically. But Reform and YP supporters are less likely to switch.

For Reform-SNP contests, most Labour and YP supporters would vote SNP, most Conservatives would vote Reform, and Liberal Democrats are uncertain.

Scottish tactical voting is a mixture of partisan left-right tactical voting, with some pro-Union tactical voting when the SNP is up against a centre-left party.

Wales

For Labour-Reform contests, Conservatives mostly vote tactically for Reform, and Plaid supporters are often attracted to vote Labour.

For Reform-Plaid contests, Conservatives mostly vote tactically for Reform, and Labour supporters mostly vote tactically for Plaid Cymru.

Overall Welsh tactical decisions are mostly driven by left-right partisan attitudes.

4. Tactical voting in three-way races

As part of our model, we also made assumptions about how voters would behave in three-way (or four-way) marginals. In these cases the seat is not a straight two-horse race and simple tactical voting models may be misleading. Our model assumptions are:

• If the gap between the second and third placed parties is at least 10pc, then tactical voting will operate in full. In this case the seat is a clear contest between two parties.
• If the gap between the second and third placed parties is less than 5pc, then there will be no tactical voting. The seat is a contest between at least three parties, and tactical voting will be less applicable.
• If the gap is between 5pc and 10pc, then tactical voting will partially apply, since the seat is in between the two clear cases.

5. Impact on a General Election

The key question is how much impact these tactical voting preferences might have on a general election.

To find out, we ran the Electoral Calculus tactical voting model, using the tactical preferences from our poll, to see if it would change the election result and, if so, by how much.

The table below shows the predicted election results (using national polling data up to the end of August 2025) both with and without tactical voting.

The table shows that the two big parties benefit most from tactical voting, with Labour gaining 42 seats and the Conservatives gaining 29 seats. This mostly comes at the expense of Reform UK, who win 67 seats fewer than expected due to anti-Reform tactical voting.

With current public opinion, this could be the deciding factor between an outright Reform majority and a hung parliament. Based on these numbers, Reform would be 25 seats shy of an overall majority, but a coalition with the Conservatives would give them a comfortable 82-seats in Parliament.

6. Conclusions

Reform UK generates strong feelings, both positive and negative, in the British public.

Their positive support has taken them to a strong and consistent lead in the opinion polls. But many of their opponents are prepared to vote tactically against them. A third of Labour voters say they would vote Conservative to keep Reform out, if their seat was a Conservative-Reform contest.

If these tactical voting preferences were applied to a general election now it would deprive Reform of an outright majority, forcing them to form a coalition or arrangement with another party to govern.

7. Quotes

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said "Our figures show a significant number of voters ready to vote tactically to keep Reform out. This could deprive Reform of an outright majority if there were an election, and force Nigel Farage into a coalition with the Conservatives. Many Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters would vote Conservative in Conservative-Reform seats to stymie Reform UK."
"Expect to see slogans like 'Only Labour can stop Reform' widely used at the next general election, as Labour tries to consolidate the centre-left vote behind their own candidates. But the overall fragmentation of the left, compounded by the new 'Your Party', is still a big handicap for Labour."
"Tactical voting makes things harder for Reform, as so many voters are strongly opposed to them. But Farage's party are still leading in the polls, and still on course to be the largest party. Though it's unclear if they can keep up that momentum all the way to the next election."

Appendix 1: Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 10,990 GB adults online between 1-8 September 2025. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Data tables are available here.

Appendix 2: Full text of questions

Q1. We know that many people in your area didn't vote in the last general election. How likely do you think you are to vote in the next general election on a scale from 0 to 10? (10 - certain to vote, 0 - certain not to vote)

Q2. If a general election was called tomorrow, how would you vote?

Q3. Suppose all the of following political parties were equally likely to win your seat at a general election. Which party would you most like to win?

Q4. [A/B Template] Suppose your seat is a close contest between [A] and [B] and no other party is likely to win. How would you vote in this case?

Question four was asked up to four times for each respondent, with different values for the two parties [A] and [B]. The choice of parties used depended on whether the respondent lives in England, Scotland or Wales. The table below shows which combinations were asked in which area:

Respondents were not asked for combinations which included the first preference party they gave earlier in question three. Other possible combinations (eg Con-Lab) were not asked, since they make up only a small proportion of seats.

Appendix 3: A/B question matrices

The following matrices give more details of the respondents' views in all the various cases.

Each matrix represents one A/B test. For example, table one refers to contests between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in England. Each row of the matrix refers to the first preference party of respondents. Each column describes what they would do in this A/B scenario.

For example, the first row of table one shows what Labour supporters would do in seats which are Con-Lib contests. Of those whose first preference party is Labour, 7pc would tactically vote Conservative, 72pc would tactically vote Lib Dem, 20pc would non-tactically vote Labour, and 1pc would vote for other parties.

There is one for each relevant party. Note that, in table one, there are no rows for Conservative or Lib Dem supporters as they are all assumed to vote for their first preference party.

England

Table 1 Tactical preferences for Conservative-Lib Dem contests in England

Table 2 Tactical preferences for Conservative-Reform contests in England

Table 3 Tactical preferences for Labour-Reform contests in England

Table 4 Tactical preferences for Lib Dem-Reform contests in England

Scotland

Table 5 Tactical preferences for Conservative-SNP contests in Scotland

Table 6 Tactical preferences for Labour-SNP contests in Scotland

Table 7 Tactical preferences for Lib Dem-SNP contests in Scotland

Table 8 Tactical preferences for Reform-SNP contests in Scotland

Wales

Table 9 Tactical preferences for Labour-Reform contests in Wales

Table 10 Tactical preferences for Reform-Plaid contests in Wales