Our ever-popular voter transition graphic shows visually the extent of movement between parties. It also includes 'non-voting' as an option, which is an important reservoir of voters.
The transition graphic below shows the results of our recent MRP polling, plus national vote share changes, up to May 2025. Each figure represents one per cent of those who voted in the 2024 general election, which is equivalent to about 280,000 actual voters. The colour of each figure indicates which party they voted for in 2024.
The migration flows, indicated by the arrows, show how voters have changed their minds since 2024, and indicate the likely transfer of votes at the next election. Parties which are losing voters, such as Labour and the Conservatives, have their ranks thinned by lost voters (coloured in grey) who supported them in 2024 but are switched away now. Parties which are gaining votes have their ranks augmented by figures bearing a plus sign (+) who are new supporters of that party since 2024.
Also important are voters who will likely not vote. These are indicated by the big grey figure in the middle. Some voters did not vote in 2024 but will likely vote next time, and they are represented by figures coming out of the non-voting area. Other voters did vote in 2024 but are unlikely to vote next time are shown going into the non-voting area.
In 2024, Labour won 35pc of the vote, with the Conservatives on 24pc, Reform with 15pc, the Liberal Democrats on 13pc and the Greens on 7pc. This is shown in the sizes of the party blocks (including grey voters but ignoring 'plus' voters). The remaining 7pc of voters voted for the SNP, Plaid Cymru and minor parties.
In terms of voter migration, the main story is that voters are leaving Labour in all directions. Thirteen out of the 35 Labour voters no longer support the party. A large group of six have chosen not to vote at all. Three have switched to Reform UK, two have gone to the Liberal Democrats and two more have gone to the Greens. It should be noted that more Labour voters have stayed with the centre-left than switched to right-of-centre parties, and the 'non voting' group could be won back. But the overall situation is not good for Labour at the moment.
The Conservatives have also lost ground. Of their 24 voters, four have switched to Reform and two have decided not to vote. That leaves them with only around 18 voters out of one hundred. The Liberal Democrats have gained net one voter (winning two from Labour but losing one to Reform), and the Greens have gained two from Labour.
The biggest winner currently is Reform, who have picked up voters from the Conservative, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, as well as gaining seven voters who did not vote in 2024. The Reform total support rises from 15 to 30.
You can compare the current migration with the 2019-2024 migration.
Current opinion is dominated by the slump in Labour support and the growth in support for Reform UK. The Conservatives are now reduced to third place, according to current opinion polls. The situation is very fluid, and could easily change again before the next general election. Few voters have made the transition from centre-left parties to right-of-centre parties, with most changes reflecting the decline of the (previous) big two parties and differential likelihood to turnout.
But the current signs signal a potential transformation in British politics.