Aldershot: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Aldershot: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Leo Docherty  (CON)
County/Area:Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:81,330
Turnout:66.1%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,64857.0%
LAB16,12030.0%
LIB3,7897.0%
UKIP1,8103.4%
Green1,2972.4%
OTH1020.2%
CON Majority14,52827.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Aldershot been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Aldershot: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Aldershot

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aldershot

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aldershot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AldershotTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HartBlackwater and Hawley5,460Hampshire North East2,029847532154480003,610
HartYateley East1,772Hampshire North East67726416146160001,164
RushmoorAldershot Park5,177Aldershot1,6301,367172140460003,355
RushmoorCherrywood5,057Aldershot1,6421,836350163610004,052
RushmoorCove and Southwood5,276Aldershot2,1669291801381090003,522
RushmoorEmpress4,259Aldershot1,66562123654880002,664
RushmoorFernhill5,190Aldershot2,062915255143970003,472
RushmoorKnellwood5,442Aldershot2,2628251811331080003,509
RushmoorManor Park5,447Aldershot2,1201,457206157580003,998
RushmoorNorth Town4,547Aldershot1,4151,467158128400003,208
RushmoorRowhill4,994Aldershot1,7831,0221791381100003,232
RushmoorSt John's4,966Aldershot2,1048411671311010003,344
RushmoorSt Mark's4,763Aldershot1,88384242361980003,307
RushmoorWellington2,471Aldershot1,7611,31612962260003,294
RushmoorWest Heath4,898Aldershot1,756927308148830003,222
 Total69,719 26,95515,4763,6371,7961,08900048,953

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aldershot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBramley and Sherfield4,261Hampshire North West2,375620300688500293,477
Basingstoke and DeanePamber and Silchester3,598Hampshire North West1,925455196446000122,692
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John1,580Hampshire North West9061741099250071,230
Basingstoke and DeaneUpton Grey and The Candovers2,240Hampshire North East1,3122159911270051,669
HartCrookham East5,834Aldershot3,08086742311113600534,670
HartCrookham West and Ewshot6,394Aldershot3,31988842210313600494,917
HartFleet Central6,374Hampshire North East3,2391,05348011615300675,108
HartFleet East5,670Hampshire North East2,8838156337612100124,540
HartFleet West5,820Hampshire North East3,3467954688712300394,858
HartHartley Wintney6,713Hampshire North East3,3487157737811900125,045
HartHook6,123Hampshire North East3,2819685368612100135,005
HartOdiham6,302Hampshire North East3,8487406618712900435,508
HartYateley East4,819Hampshire North East1,970716777769900113,649
HartYateley West6,482Hampshire North East2,9219591,11010814200145,254
 Total72,210 37,7539,9806,9871,0601,4760036657,622

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Aldershot

The new seat of Aldershot is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Aldershot
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HartCrookham East6,117Hampshire North East3,08086742311113600534,670
HartCrookham West and Ewshot6,441Hampshire North East3,31988842210313600494,917
RushmoorAldershot Park5,223Aldershot1,6301,367172140460003,355
RushmoorCherrywood6,305Aldershot1,6421,836350163610004,052
RushmoorCove and Southwood5,483Aldershot2,1669291801381090003,522
RushmoorEmpress4,146Aldershot1,66562123654880002,664
RushmoorFernhill5,405Aldershot2,062915255143970003,472
RushmoorKnellwood5,464Aldershot2,2628251811331080003,509
RushmoorManor Park6,222Aldershot2,1201,457206157580003,998
RushmoorNorth Town4,993Aldershot1,4151,467158128400003,208
RushmoorRowhill5,032Aldershot1,7831,0221791381100003,232
RushmoorSt John's5,206Aldershot2,1048411671311010003,344
RushmoorSt Mark's5,150Aldershot1,88384242361980003,307
RushmoorWellington5,127Aldershot1,7611,31612962260003,294
RushmoorWest Heath5,016Aldershot1,756927308148830003,222
 Total81,330 30,64816,1203,7891,8101,2970010253,766

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Aldershot. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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