Alyn and Deeside: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Alyn and Deeside: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Tami  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 79,867
Turnout: 71.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB29,26651.3%
CON23,36741.0%
Plaid1,6802.9%
LIB1,5842.8%
UKIP1,1162.0%
LAB Majority5,89910.3%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Alyn and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Alyn and Deeside constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC47%46%51%
Average Age49.549.648.5
ABC1 Class47%47%53%

Alyn and Deeside ranks #244 for "Leave", #436 for "Right" and #339 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Alyn and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Alyn and Deeside been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Alyn and Deeside

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Alyn and Deeside

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Alyn and Deeside, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Alyn and DeesideTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireAston2,351Alyn and Deeside7897702945036001,669
FlintshireBroughton North East1,728Alyn and Deeside4577031727023001,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,880Alyn and Deeside7251,1475548070002,045
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,594Alyn and Deeside79381613251049001,841
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,520Alyn and Deeside9011,33613163067002,498
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,292Alyn and Deeside7767343143042001,626
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,584Alyn and Deeside1,2081,1535070063002,544
FlintshireCaergwrle1,235Alyn and Deeside297521152102300877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,535Alyn and Deeside5351,1602745033001,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,222Alyn and Deeside9461,8344774097002,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,335Alyn and Deeside1,1231,67413173077003,078
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,729Alyn and Deeside4706662334034001,227
FlintshireEwloe4,185Alyn and Deeside1,5981,1805372069002,972
FlintshireHawarden1,428Alyn and Deeside6872751722013001,014
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,306Alyn and Deeside463380442102000928
FlintshireHope1,944Alyn and Deeside6806032436036001,379
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,449Alyn and Deeside5574021624031001,030
FlintshireMancot2,655Alyn and Deeside6581,1033046049001,886
FlintshirePenyffordd2,915Alyn and Deeside8991,0373450050002,070
FlintshireQueensferry1,606Alyn and Deeside3576991631037001,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,103Alyn and Deeside328399172201700783
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,792Alyn and Deeside7351,0874347070001,982
FlintshireSealand2,289Alyn and Deeside5321,0002037037001,626
FlintshireShotton East1,465Alyn and Deeside3476122027033001,039
FlintshireShotton Higher1,993Alyn and Deeside4249181435024001,415
FlintshireShotton West1,648Alyn and Deeside3677082829039001,171
FlintshireTreuddyn1,256Alyn and Deeside427398112303200891
 Total63,039 18,07923,3151,0751,11601,1710044,756

The full details of these calculations are given on the Alyn and Deeside seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Delyn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Delyn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DelynTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,161Alyn and Deeside730714910039001,574
FlintshireBagillt East1,474Rhuddlan and Flint428602110032001,073
FlintshireBagillt West1,732Rhuddlan and Flint375845140027001,261
FlintshireBrynford1,693Rhuddlan and Flint749433110039001,232
FlintshireCaerwys1,970Rhuddlan and Flint898467170053001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,470Rhuddlan and Flint639391130029001,072
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,400Rhuddlan and Flint350646100014001,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,611Rhuddlan and Flint297840150022001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,056Rhuddlan and Flint6761,421660063002,226
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,383Rhuddlan and Flint5639773900158001,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,863Rhuddlan and Flint7191,225770064002,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,141Rhuddlan and Flint512984260038001,560
FlintshireGronant1,180Rhuddlan and Flint29453415001600859
FlintshireGwernaffield1,517Alyn and Deeside649387420027001,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,371Alyn and Deeside466467410026001,000
FlintshireHalkyn1,341Rhuddlan and Flint46745713004000977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,533Rhuddlan and Flint326736360019001,117
FlintshireHolywell East1,365Rhuddlan and Flint34060119003300993
FlintshireHolywell West1,822Rhuddlan and Flint5216601600129001,326
FlintshireLeeswood1,651Alyn and Deeside484652240042001,202
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,116Alyn and Deeside635764950047001,541
FlintshireMold East1,529Alyn and Deeside367704230020001,114
FlintshireMold South2,083Alyn and Deeside6946077900137001,517
FlintshireMold West2,047Alyn and Deeside4818463400130001,491
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,437Rhuddlan and Flint40560790026001,047
FlintshireNew Brighton2,353Alyn and Deeside782810800041001,713
FlintshireNorthop2,368Rhuddlan and Flint849801300045001,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,182Rhuddlan and Flint39243716001600861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,442Rhuddlan and Flint61236390066001,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824Rhuddlan and Flint632594610042001,329
 Total54,115 16,33220,5721,032001,4800039,416

The full details of these calculations are given on the Delyn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Alyn and Deeside

The new seat of Alyn and Deeside is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Alyn and Deeside
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,161Delyn730714910039001,574
FlintshireAston2,351Alyn and Deeside7897702945036001,669
FlintshireBroughton North East1,728Alyn and Deeside4577031727023001,227
FlintshireBroughton South2,880Alyn and Deeside7251,1475548070002,045
FlintshireBuckley Bistre East2,594Alyn and Deeside79381613251049001,841
FlintshireBuckley Bistre West3,520Alyn and Deeside9011,33613163067002,498
FlintshireBuckley Mountain2,292Alyn and Deeside7767343143042001,626
FlintshireBuckley Pentrobin3,584Alyn and Deeside1,2081,1535070063002,544
FlintshireCaergwrle1,235Alyn and Deeside297521152102300877
FlintshireConnah's Quay Central2,535Alyn and Deeside5351,1602745033001,800
FlintshireConnah's Quay Golftyn4,222Alyn and Deeside9461,8344774097002,998
FlintshireConnah's Quay South4,335Alyn and Deeside1,1231,67413173077003,078
FlintshireConnah's Quay Wepre1,729Alyn and Deeside4706662334034001,227
FlintshireEwloe4,185Alyn and Deeside1,5981,1805372069002,972
FlintshireGwernaffield1,517Delyn649387420027001,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,371Delyn466467410026001,000
FlintshireHawarden1,428Alyn and Deeside6872751722013001,014
FlintshireHigher Kinnerton1,306Alyn and Deeside463380442102000928
FlintshireHope1,944Alyn and Deeside6806032436036001,379
FlintshireLeeswood1,651Delyn484652240042001,202
FlintshireLlanfynydd1,449Alyn and Deeside5574021624031001,030
FlintshireMancot2,655Alyn and Deeside6581,1033046049001,886
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,116Delyn635764950047001,541
FlintshireMold East1,529Delyn367704230020001,114
FlintshireMold South2,083Delyn6946077900137001,517
FlintshireMold West2,047Delyn4818463400130001,491
FlintshireNew Brighton2,353Delyn782810800041001,713
FlintshirePenyffordd2,915Alyn and Deeside8991,0373450050002,070
FlintshireQueensferry1,606Alyn and Deeside3576991631037001,140
FlintshireSaltney Mold Junction1,103Alyn and Deeside328399172201700783
FlintshireSaltney Stonebridge2,792Alyn and Deeside7351,0874347070001,982
FlintshireSealand2,289Alyn and Deeside5321,0002037037001,626
FlintshireShotton East1,465Alyn and Deeside3476122027033001,039
FlintshireShotton Higher1,993Alyn and Deeside4249181435024001,415
FlintshireShotton West1,648Alyn and Deeside3677082829039001,171
FlintshireTreuddyn1,256Alyn and Deeside427398112303200891
 Total79,867 23,36729,2661,5841,11601,6800057,013

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Alyn and Deeside.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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