Anglesey and Bangor: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Anglesey and Bangor: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Albert Owen  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 78,976
Turnout: 70.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB23,66342.5%
Plaid16,15929.0%
CON14,18625.5%
LIB1,0081.8%
UKIP6231.1%
LAB Majority7,50413.5%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Anglesey and Bangor : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Anglesey and Bangor constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position15° Left9° Left
National Position6° Glo
Social Position7° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %47%52%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born94%95%88%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job46%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age49.449.648.5
ABC1 Class49%47%53%

Anglesey and Bangor ranks #439 for "Leave", #530 for "Right", #461 for "National" and #499 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Anglesey and Bangor: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Anglesey and Bangor been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Anglesey and Bangor

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberconwy

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberconwy, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberconwyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Gwynedd323244110012500703
ConwyBryn1,469Anglesey and Bangor3405582100124001,043
ConwyCaerhun1,599Gwynedd6403521400131001,137
ConwyCapelulo1,191Anglesey and Bangor39834841005900846
ConwyConwy3,269Conwy and Colwyn9511,1264200204002,323
ConwyCrwst1,706Gwynedd4704905800195001,213
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Gwynedd387298110017000866
ConwyGogarth3,088Conwy and Colwyn9859904300175002,193
ConwyGower960Gwynedd242294120013500683
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Conwy and Colwyn651478450083001,257
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Conwy and Colwyn81794911200120001,998
ConwyPandy1,454Anglesey and Bangor3605212600126001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Anglesey and Bangor5529542900102001,637
ConwyTrefriw996Gwynedd283282150012800708
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Gwynedd367283120017900841
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Conwy and Colwyn9556943200271001,952
ConwyDeganwy3,154Conwy and Colwyn1,3656779400106002,242
ConwyMarl3,109Conwy and Colwyn99591616200137002,210
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Conwy and Colwyn1,5721,0016500152002,790
ConwyPensarn2,269Conwy and Colwyn6336713300275001,612
ConwyTudno4,036Conwy and Colwyn1,0511,5776500173002,866
 Total45,250 14,33713,703943003,1700032,153

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberconwy seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Arfon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Arfon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ArfonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd948Anglesey and Bangor12919060032200647
GwyneddBethel972Gwynedd13131850020800662
GwyneddBontnewydd785Gwynedd9516790026500536
GwyneddCadnant1,407Gwynedd108450180038400960
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo675Gwynedd8525490011200460
GwyneddDeiniol1,310Anglesey and Bangor119454400028000893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,316Gwynedd132366110038900898
GwyneddDewi1,293Anglesey and Bangor120373340035400881
GwyneddGarth681Anglesey and Bangor70174120020800464
GwyneddGerlan1,626Anglesey and Bangor1353932700555001,110
GwyneddGlyder1,186Anglesey and Bangor136269420036200809
GwyneddGroeslon1,178Gwynedd181327120028200802
GwyneddHendre1,017Anglesey and Bangor85342100025700694
GwyneddHirael1,137Anglesey and Bangor117406440020800775
GwyneddLlanberis1,392Gwynedd185409240033200950
GwyneddLlanllyfni863Gwynedd8321660028400589
GwyneddLlanrug1,314Gwynedd150289150044200896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,381Gwynedd195325150040600941
GwyneddMarchog1,757Anglesey and Bangor1427251400317001,198
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,812Anglesey and Bangor3317709700720001,918
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,500Gwynedd2013242100477001,023
GwyneddOgwen1,609Anglesey and Bangor1443921600545001,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,630Gwynedd1165151100469001,111
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,168Gwynedd129247140040600796
GwyneddPentir1,680Anglesey and Bangor2413774300486001,147
GwyneddPenygroes1,227Gwynedd125301110039900836
GwyneddSeiont2,035Gwynedd2466413100470001,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,283Gwynedd162392110031000875
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,510Anglesey and Bangor1734591700381001,030
GwyneddWaunfawr1,130Gwynedd139244140037300770
GwyneddY Felinheli1,545Anglesey and Bangor2103161000517001,053
 Total41,367 4,61511,4256490011,5200028,209

The full details of these calculations are given on the Arfon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ynys Mon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ynys Mon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ynys MonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of AngleseyAethwy5,246Anglesey and Bangor1,0151,3021105101,259003,737
Isle of AngleseyBro Aberffraw2,864Anglesey and Bangor6187876340597002,042
Isle of AngleseyBro Rhosyr3,562Anglesey and Bangor79797216380714002,537
Isle of AngleseyCaergybi5,741Anglesey and Bangor7512,58964760609004,089
Isle of AngleseyCanolbarth Môn6,563Anglesey and Bangor1,1211,741217201,720004,675
Isle of AngleseyLlifôn4,522Anglesey and Bangor1,1281,41031640589003,222
Isle of AngleseyLligwy4,641Anglesey and Bangor1,0851,29118610851003,306
Isle of AngleseySeiriol4,569Anglesey and Bangor9221,101824301,108003,256
Isle of AngleseyTalybolion4,613Anglesey and Bangor8731,16194801,196003,287
Isle of AngleseyTwrcelyn5,597Anglesey and Bangor1,1121,76489760946003,987
Isle of AngleseyYnys Gybi4,529Anglesey and Bangor9621,52433600647003,226
 Total52,447 10,38415,642479623010,2360037,364

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ynys Mon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Anglesey and Bangor

The new seat of Anglesey and Bangor is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Anglesey and Bangor
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBryn1,469Aberconwy3405582100124001,043
ConwyCapelulo1,191Aberconwy39834841005900846
ConwyPandy1,454Aberconwy3605212600126001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Aberconwy5529542900102001,637
GwyneddArllechwedd948Arfon12919060032200647
GwyneddDeiniol1,310Arfon119454400028000893
GwyneddDewi1,293Arfon120373340035400881
GwyneddGarth681Arfon70174120020800464
GwyneddGerlan1,626Arfon1353932700555001,110
GwyneddGlyder1,186Arfon136269420036200809
GwyneddHendre1,017Arfon85342100025700694
GwyneddHirael1,137Arfon117406440020800775
GwyneddMarchog1,757Arfon1427251400317001,198
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,812Arfon3317709700720001,918
GwyneddOgwen1,609Arfon1443921600545001,097
GwyneddPentir1,680Arfon2413774300486001,147
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,510Arfon1734591700381001,030
GwyneddY Felinheli1,545Arfon2103161000517001,053
Isle of AngleseyAethwy5,246Ynys Mon1,0151,3021105101,259003,737
Isle of AngleseyBro Aberffraw2,864Ynys Mon6187876340597002,042
Isle of AngleseyBro Rhosyr3,562Ynys Mon79797216380714002,537
Isle of AngleseyCaergybi5,741Ynys Mon7512,58964760609004,089
Isle of AngleseyCanolbarth Môn6,563Ynys Mon1,1211,741217201,720004,675
Isle of AngleseyLlifôn4,522Ynys Mon1,1281,41031640589003,222
Isle of AngleseyLligwy4,641Ynys Mon1,0851,29118610851003,306
Isle of AngleseySeiriol4,569Ynys Mon9221,101824301,108003,256
Isle of AngleseyTalybolion4,613Ynys Mon8731,16194801,196003,287
Isle of AngleseyTwrcelyn5,597Ynys Mon1,1121,76489760946003,987
Isle of AngleseyYnys Gybi4,529Ynys Mon9621,52433600647003,226
 Total78,976 14,18623,6631,008623016,1590055,639

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Anglesey and Bangor. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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