Antrim South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Antrim South: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jeffrey Donaldson  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 78,685
Turnout: 62.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP24,98750.8%
UUP10,64021.6%
SF4,7889.7%
MIN4,5969.3%
SDLP3,7967.7%
OTH4220.9%
DUP Majority14,34729.1%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Antrim South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Antrim South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Antrim South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South5951575900043511001,887
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South501966310023414701,609
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,875Antrim East663207870017817001,818
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386Antrim East550176530014814101,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,425Antrim East334113700092940901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Belfast North1723321300147490614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304Antrim East532166310014313601,458
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331Antrim East537166390014413801,474
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Belfast North34767432002979901,242
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Belfast North30859382002638801,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Belfast North313880021160159
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South446118443003278201,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,239Antrim Mid344119504003985101,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South5431435380039710001,721
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295Antrim Mid530166280014213601,452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122Antrim East498165520013714001,343
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South419805280019612301,346
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South425815350019812401,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Belfast North1312516200112370467
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown170Antrim East401440011110107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South6421696360046911902,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,533Antrim East594196590016316701,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,098Antrim Mid322112473003734801,328
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,512Antrim Mid386134566004465801,590
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,345Antrim Mid360125528004165401,483
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6681278410031219602,144
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South490946170022814401,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South519996540024315201,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South427113424003127901,355
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,443Antrim Mid375130550004345601,545
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South36391768002428701,551
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South2095344300140500895
 Total68,247 13,3012,36016,509007,7983,202043,170

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann132260013045
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5441021,1320055143201,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid423788780042111151,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid507941,0530051133181,856
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1335810014193165
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West371103200060335565
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2391959440013570101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1561129520014133181,385
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid197508010013193261,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2151531,3080019183251,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South339747090014190261,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West23015498000116251341,765
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid228589260015223311,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South199508070013194271,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1781207590090195271,369
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South21314390700107233321,635
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South244629910016239331,585
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid347777270015194271,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1921361,1670017163221,697
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South338747070014189261,348
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1711211,0400015145201,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1951318330098213291,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South1561109470014133181,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2712221,0720015479111,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1831247840093201271,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South321716720014180251,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South416928720018233321,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2011431,2230018170231,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid201518160013198271,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South3226127001891213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South23015498100116251341,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2982431,1770016987121,986
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South820420084082
 Total72,380 7,5353,38726,761001,5694,99568444,931

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Antrim South

The new seat of Antrim South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Antrim South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South5951575900043511001,887
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South501966310023414701,609
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South446118443003278201,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South5431435380039710001,721
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South419805280019612301,346
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South425815350019812401,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South6421696360046911902,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6681278410031219602,144
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South490946170022814401,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South519996540024315201,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South427113424003127901,355
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Lagan Valley2391959440013570101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Lagan Valley1561129520014133181,385
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Lagan Valley2151531,3080019183251,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Lagan Valley339747090014190261,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South36391768002428701,551
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Lagan Valley1781207590090195271,369
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Lagan Valley21314390700107233321,635
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Lagan Valley244629910016239331,585
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Lagan Valley1921361,1670017163221,697
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Lagan Valley338747070014189261,348
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Lagan Valley1711211,0400015145201,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Lagan Valley1561109470014133181,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Lagan Valley2712221,0720015479111,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Lagan Valley1831247840093201271,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Lagan Valley321716720014180251,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Lagan Valley416928720018233321,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Lagan Valley2011431,2230018170231,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Lagan Valley3226127001891213
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South2095344300140500895
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Lagan Valley23015498100116251341,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Lagan Valley2982431,1770016987121,986
 Total78,685 10,6403,79624,987004,7884,59642249,229

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Antrim South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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