Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jonathan Reynolds  (LAB)
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate: 80,075
Turnout: 59.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB28,05359.1%
CON16,50734.8%
UKIP1,0632.2%
LIB9231.9%
Green8711.8%
OTH250.1%
LAB Majority11,54624.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left4° Left
National Position5° Nat1° Nat
EU Leave %59%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health44%46%48%
UK Born91%92%88%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job46%49%51%
High SEC43%48%51%
Average Age47.748.648.5
ABC1 Class44%50%53%

Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge ranks #128 for "Leave", #444 for "Right" and #197 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ashton under Lyne

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashton under Lyne, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ashton under LyneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
OldhamFailsworth East7,748Oldham South and Droylsden1,4962,642106252580004,554
OldhamFailsworth West7,734Oldham South and Droylsden1,4752,662104271330004,545
TamesideAshton Hurst8,687Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge2,0252,83941133680005,106
TamesideAshton St Michael's8,737Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge1,6103,24469136760005,135
TamesideAshton Waterloo8,277Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge1,7472,71879254660004,864
TamesideDroylsden East8,607Oldham South and Droylsden1,5713,05180285730005,060
TamesideDroylsden West8,546Oldham South and Droylsden1,5273,04395285720005,022
TamesideSt Peter's9,337Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge1,2613,80571262880005,487
 Total67,673 12,71224,0046451,87853400039,773

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashton under Lyne seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Denton and Reddish

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Denton and Reddish, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Denton and ReddishTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StockportReddish North11,070Stockport East and Denton1,7384,3082093118400166,666
StockportReddish South10,378Stockport East and Denton1,7133,8812722828600176,251
TamesideAudenshaw8,588Oldham South and Droylsden1,3373,400722616200405,172
TamesideDenton North East8,545Stockport East and Denton1,4603,274772526400195,146
TamesideDenton South8,491Stockport East and Denton1,3533,325532705500585,114
TamesideDenton West9,036Stockport East and Denton1,8753,225941466100415,442
TamesideDukinfield9,643Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge1,6083,747772787200255,807
 Total65,751 11,08425,1608541,8004840021639,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Denton and Reddish seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stalybridge and Hyde

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stalybridge and Hyde, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stalybridge and HydeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TamesideDukinfield Stalybridge8,325Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge1,6013,11311801170004,949
TamesideHyde Godley8,787Marple and Hyde1,6223,3819601260005,225
TamesideHyde Newton10,467Marple and Hyde1,9064,03013701510006,224
TamesideHyde Werneth8,941Marple and Hyde2,4952,60810001120005,315
TamesideLongdendale7,820Marple and Hyde1,9132,5597701010004,650
TamesideMossley8,556Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge1,7942,89326501340005,086
TamesideStalybridge North9,910Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge2,2263,40711701430005,893
TamesideStalybridge South8,603Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge2,6352,2878601070005,115
 Total71,409 16,19224,278996099100042,457

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stalybridge and Hyde seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge

The new seat of Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TamesideAshton Hurst8,687Ashton under Lyne2,0252,83941133680005,106
TamesideAshton St Michael's8,737Ashton under Lyne1,6103,24469136760005,135
TamesideAshton Waterloo8,277Ashton under Lyne1,7472,71879254660004,864
TamesideDukinfield9,643Denton and Reddish1,6083,747772787200255,807
TamesideDukinfield Stalybridge8,325Stalybridge and Hyde1,6013,11311801170004,949
TamesideMossley8,556Stalybridge and Hyde1,7942,89326501340005,086
TamesideSt Peter's9,337Ashton under Lyne1,2613,80571262880005,487
TamesideStalybridge North9,910Stalybridge and Hyde2,2263,40711701430005,893
TamesideStalybridge South8,603Stalybridge and Hyde2,6352,2878601070005,115
 Total80,075 16,50728,0539231,063871002547,442

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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