Belfast East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast East: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,337
Turnout: 66.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP25,13953.9%
MIN16,56335.5%
UUP1,4063.0%
SF1,3032.8%
Green1,0752.3%
SDLP5831.2%
OTH5761.2%
DUP Majority8,57618.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East100151,62009105669222,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East118181,908010124788262,992
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East6561,01305081,084352,261
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East110171,781010116736242,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East104161,68609109696232,643
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast South426672044427891,055
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East61695704781,022332,134
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East6871,05405281,127362,352
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East38661603402548965
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East6871,06605281,139372,377
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East80121,2970784535172,032
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East87131,4020891579192,199
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East60693604671,001322,088
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East6871,06405281,138372,374
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East6671,02905181,100362,297
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East95151,54408100637212,420
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast South10210019032
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East3117490254468151,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East4111,0000335624201,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East3418150274508161,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East3618680295541181,498
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East3418190274510171,412
 Total63,494 1,40716923,917055989115,44350142,887

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South6651565505625825181,809
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South875807660250336705222,746
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South1399281,22504015381,128354,394
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South35284213020320301903
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South6550564305525324681,775
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East423412560243853611,085
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South6752366605726125581,837
BelfastMerok0 000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South7256471806128227591,981
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South815417130234313657202,559
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South735944470436716321,893
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South856975230507857322,215
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South1016778940292392823253,204
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South6852767105726325781,851
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1348941,18003855181,087344,232
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South927505640548467922,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South53394523033119328101,460
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4533344302810127791,236
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South423104120269425781,149
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South4936548503111130491,354
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4634145302910328391,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4634045102910328291,260
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South402993970259024881,107
 Total66,106 1,52811,30213,29802,2407,1427,94424743,701

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East0144071634120
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North0352504512590361,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North05705013222967591,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North04544010217748451,460
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North0471206116798481,639
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North04598011219819501,602
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North04540010117740451,447
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North03059208120666401,429
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North010280011281298466
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North04590011019810491,582
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North031649019629525321,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North032657019929532321,481
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North0470306016788481,619
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North0461605214692421,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North05680012722932561,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North030626019028507311,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Belfast East037771023334624381,737
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03568909523776471,665
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North0143850153817711640
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Belfast East041844025637684411,903
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North02956307819634381,361
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North03059708220673411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North0472406116812491,666
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North03262708621704431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North0467705715758461,557
 Total64,334 040114,93802,54953216,14897935,547

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast East

The new seat of Belfast East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East100151,62009105669222,540
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East118181,908010124788262,992
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East6561,01305081,084352,261
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East110171,781010116736242,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East104161,68609109696232,643
BelfastGarnerville219Down North0144071634120
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East61695704781,022332,134
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East6871,05405281,127362,352
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East38661603402548965
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast South423412560243853611,085
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East6871,06605281,139372,377
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East80121,2970784535172,032
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East87131,4020891579192,199
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East60693604671,001322,088
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East6871,06405281,138372,374
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East6671,02905181,100362,297
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East95151,54408100637212,420
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East3117490254468151,293
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East4111,0000335624201,724
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East3418150274508161,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East3618680295541181,498
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East3418190274510171,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Down North037771023334624381,737
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Down North041844025637684411,903
 Total70,337 1,40658325,13901,0751,30316,56357646,645

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast East.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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