Belfast East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast East: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,407
Turnout: 63.8%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
DUP22,40447.8%
Alliance20,74444.3%
UUP3,0106.4%
SDLP4881.0%
OTH2010.4%
DUP Majority1,6603.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity56%40%29%
Good Health45%48%48%
UK Born93%93%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job57%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age48.647.248.4
ABC1 Class56%45%53%

Belfast East ranks #368 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Belfast East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,924Belfast East16101,2721,08100002,514
BelfastBeersbridge4,622Belfast East18801,4981,27500002,961
BelfastBelmont3,492Belfast East13309281,17700002,238
BelfastBloomfield4,314Belfast East16801,3041,29200002,764
BelfastConnswater4,083Belfast East16301,2811,17200002,616
BelfastCregagh1,629Belfast South61049648700001,044
BelfastGarnerville3,296Belfast East12708941,09100002,112
BelfastGilnahirk3,632Belfast East14501,0551,12700002,327
BelfastHillfoot1,492Belfast East5504934080000956
BelfastKnock3,673Belfast East13408811,33800002,353
BelfastMerok3,140Belfast East11801,14175200002,011
BelfastOrangefield3,396Belfast East12501,09695500002,176
BelfastSandown3,226Belfast East12709301,01000002,067
BelfastShandon3,668Belfast East14301,0251,18200002,350
BelfastStormont3,545Belfast East13309121,22600002,271
BelfastSydenham3,738Belfast East15101,2301,01400002,395
BelfastWoodstock50Belfast South201614000032
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,997Belfast East74076943700001,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,665Belfast East9301,03558000001,708
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,172Belfast East80084147100001,392
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,311Belfast East74091549200001,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,181Belfast East61086247400001,397
 Total66,246 2,516020,87419,055000042,445

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,895Belfast South59913791178000191,960
BelfastBlackstaff4,397Belfast South931,4121,179260000312,975
BelfastCentral7,037Belfast South953,231878478000794,761
BelfastCregagh1,445Belfast South264333671430009978
BelfastFinaghy2,841Belfast South571,232476133000251,923
BelfastHillfoot1,738Belfast East31488501145000101,175
BelfastMalone2,942Belfast South521,402282233000231,992
BelfastMerok0 000000000
BelfastMusgrave3,173Belfast South521,528392142000322,146
BelfastOrmeau4,099Belfast South531,726424535000352,773
BelfastRavenhill3,030Belfast South49927522532000202,050
BelfastRosetta3,549Belfast South591,364421530000272,401
BelfastStranmillis5,133Belfast South1052,235633456000453,474
BelfastUpper Malone2,965Belfast South581,048676203000202,005
BelfastWindsor6,778Belfast South1262,671933800000564,586
BelfastWoodstock3,823Belfast South811,251868360000282,588
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,340Belfast South44821429275000141,583
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,978Belfast South37750304235000131,339
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,839Belfast South36645384167000121,244
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,169Belfast South41835348228000151,467
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally2,024Belfast South37758307255000131,370
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,016Belfast South36804260251000141,365
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,773Belfast South32605303249000101,199
 Total69,984 1,25927,07911,6786,78800055047,354

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville228Belfast East16048690005138
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,285Down North1670557592000681,384
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,567Down North27907611,0020001182,160
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,757Down North2110587787000851,670
North Down and ArdsBallymagee3,095Down North2250753805000921,875
North Down and ArdsBloomfield3,024Down North2350666832000991,832
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,731Down North2070620744000841,655
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,697Down North1930519848000731,633
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore879Down North50030416200017533
North Down and ArdsCastle2,987Down North2330662814000991,808
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,760Down North1970693711000711,672
North Down and ArdsCultra2,796Down North2110537867000781,693
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee3,056Down North2230762772000941,851
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,679Down North1940650698000801,622
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,439Down North28005931,0940001172,084
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,665Down North1980545799000721,614
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,281Belfast East24906321,015000921,988
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,142Down North2230762829000891,903
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,207Down North69040823000024731
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,593Belfast East2610861961000942,177
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,568Down North1820625676000721,555
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,723Down North1830726672000691,650
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,146Down North2320764812000981,906
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,856Down North2040643804000801,731
North Down and ArdsWarren2,939Down North2150714763000891,781
 Total67,100 4,937015,39218,3580001,95940,646

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast East

The new seat of Belfast East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast East
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,924Belfast East16101,2721,08100002,514
BelfastBeersbridge4,622Belfast East18801,4981,27500002,961
BelfastBelmont3,492Belfast East13309281,17700002,238
BelfastBloomfield4,314Belfast East16801,3041,29200002,764
BelfastConnswater4,083Belfast East16301,2811,17200002,616
BelfastGarnerville228Down North16048690005138
BelfastGarnerville3,296Belfast East12708941,09100002,112
BelfastGilnahirk3,632Belfast East14501,0551,12700002,327
BelfastHillfoot1,492Belfast East5504934080000956
BelfastHillfoot1,738Belfast South31488501145000101,175
BelfastKnock3,673Belfast East13408811,33800002,353
BelfastMerok3,140Belfast East11801,14175200002,011
BelfastOrangefield3,396Belfast East12501,09695500002,176
BelfastSandown3,226Belfast East12709301,01000002,067
BelfastShandon3,668Belfast East14301,0251,18200002,350
BelfastStormont3,545Belfast East13309121,22600002,271
BelfastSydenham3,738Belfast East15101,2301,01400002,395
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,997Belfast East74076943700001,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,665Belfast East9301,03558000001,708
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,172Belfast East80084147100001,392
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,311Belfast East74091549200001,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,181Belfast East61086247400001,397
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,281Down North24906321,015000921,988
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,593Down North2610861961000942,177
 Total73,407 3,01048822,40420,74400020146,847

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Belfast East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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