Belfast East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast East: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Gavin Robinson  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,337
Turnout: 66.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP25,40254.0%
Alliance15,79933.6%
UUP1,4163.0%
MIN1,3722.9%
Green1,0622.3%
SF1,0062.1%
OTH5761.2%
SDLP3970.8%
DUP Majority9,60320.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast East constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerDUPDUPCON
EU Leave %51%44%52%
British Identity56%40%29%
Good Health45%48%48%
UK Born93%93%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job57%47%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age48.647.248.4
ABC1 Class56%45%53%

Belfast East ranks #368 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East97231,42683361230332,541
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East11331,682985261440392,992
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East7581,1001,00536110262,261
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East97231,4661,012401230332,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East96121,438911321220332,644
BelfastCregagh1,561Belfast South33855938515420111,053
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East7231,05793134110252,133
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East8521,23494640150292,351
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East3075583211228010966
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East72171,0611,15834110252,378
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East65141,28958217440222,033
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East68161,25877831230232,197
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East7421,08684535210252,088
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East8321,2061,00139150282,374
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East74171,0841,04835110252,294
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East9021,382782181150312,420
BelfastWoodstock48Belfast South101811010031
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East4018743401960141,294
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East4611,1754512680191,726
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East4319543662060151,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East3311,0363802270161,495
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East2019763692270161,411
 Total63,494 1,40716423,91915,440559894049842,881

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,735Belfast South79374859236332160111,808
BelfastBlackstaff4,153Belfast South1285111,2713711892580182,746
BelfastCentral6,647Belfast South691,0219235883341,4330264,394
BelfastCregagh1,365Belfast South351444011833010405902
BelfastFinaghy2,684Belfast South69530528165294450101,776
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast East431735451993287061,085
BelfastMalone2,779Belfast South6273935728683302091,838
BelfastMerok0 000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,997Belfast South53638434167326470111,982
BelfastOrmeau3,872Belfast South477515165902673760142,561
BelfastRavenhill2,862Belfast South613586145801261430101,892
BelfastRosetta3,352Belfast South685895195731353220112,217
BelfastStranmillis4,849Belfast South1329367455342785620183,205
BelfastUpper Malone2,801Belfast South77472752260452340111,851
BelfastWindsor6,402Belfast South1521,0651,0918994105910254,233
BelfastWoodstock3,611Belfast South110438954438733590152,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,210Belfast South5840950631424143081,462
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,868Belfast South4737236826420157071,235
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,737Belfast South4628543419720161061,149
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,049Belfast South5239441126122208071,355
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,912Belfast South4838937628620138071,264
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,904Belfast South4540932728020171071,259
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,675Belfast South433103672771887061,108
 Total66,106 1,52411,30713,2987,9482,2407,144024843,709

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East00482782463134
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North04540885016601361,335
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North06718135119251,020622,085
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North0556315212224702431,611
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North057281216921813491,806
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North056311049820856521,766
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North0559612110721702421,594
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North04151328312126558341,576
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North01230829951419513
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North05624848518876531,745
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North01668716116725524321,612
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North03752525820428548331,633
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North05734875018840511,785
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North046281045818709431,564
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North0555022716330973592,007
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North03453623718126511311,556
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Belfast East04361730024332642391,916
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North0137441608224766461,835
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North0164144513819712705
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Belfast East02585022923534684412,098
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North0246131397221595361,500
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North0417221478024544331,591
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North05732945419879531,836
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North0406292009726637391,668
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North056901076120786481,717
 Total64,334 040114,9403,6392,54853116,15097939,188

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast East

The new seat of Belfast East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBallymacarrett3,761Belfast East97231,42683361230332,541
BelfastBeersbridge4,430Belfast East11331,682985261440392,992
BelfastBelmont3,347Belfast East7581,1001,00536110262,261
BelfastBloomfield4,135Belfast East97231,4661,012401230332,794
BelfastConnswater3,913Belfast East96121,438911321220332,644
BelfastGarnerville219Down North00482782463134
BelfastGarnerville3,159Belfast East7231,05793134110252,133
BelfastGilnahirk3,481Belfast East8521,23494640150292,351
BelfastHillfoot1,430Belfast East3075583211228010966
BelfastHillfoot1,642Belfast South431735451993287061,085
BelfastKnock3,520Belfast East72171,0611,15834110252,378
BelfastMerok3,010Belfast East65141,28958217440222,033
BelfastOrangefield3,255Belfast East68161,25877831230232,197
BelfastSandown3,092Belfast East7421,08684535210252,088
BelfastShandon3,516Belfast East8321,2061,00139150282,374
BelfastStormont3,398Belfast East74171,0841,04835110252,294
BelfastSydenham3,583Belfast East9021,382782181150312,420
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallyhanwood1,914Belfast East4018743401960141,294
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarrowreagh2,554Belfast East4611,1754512680191,726
Lisburn and CastlereaghDundonald2,082Belfast East4319543662060151,405
Lisburn and CastlereaghEnler2,215Belfast East3311,0363802270161,495
Lisburn and CastlereaghGraham's Bridge2,090Belfast East2019763692270161,411
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Down North04361730024332642391,916
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Down North02585022923534684412,098
 Total70,337 1,41639725,40215,7991,0621,0061,37257647,030

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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