Belfast North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast North: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2019: John Finucane  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 76,721
Turnout: 66.7%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SF22,22343.4%
DUP21,25941.6%
Alliance6,01311.8%
UUP1,3252.6%
SDLP2120.4%
OTH710.1%
Green460.1%
SF Majority9641.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %49%44%52%
British Identity41%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job47%47%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age47.547.248.4
ABC1 Class43%45%53%

Belfast North ranks #402 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Belfast North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,481Belfast North63233832881653025851
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff784Antrim East8310217106816012452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill366Belfast North194114544906210
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,266Antrim East2332853440922430331,302
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,591Belfast North2483369739326520401,489
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,202Antrim East3114073461931590461,840
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,126Antrim East10745453301302460411,223
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin838Causeway48181841151191016483
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,387Antrim East2753063432624470361,372
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,182Antrim East1852759234622470351,254
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,102Antrim East2212656530421400321,209
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,367Antrim East1974855341528780411,360
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,274Antrim East13348502313312390421,308
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,624Antrim East1343073547927590441,508
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,920Antrim East19244787434331390501,679
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,493Antrim East2913362333726840381,432
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,432Antrim East15741618393291180431,399
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry194Antrim Mid13366202403111
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,377Antrim East2163064037524460361,367
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,354Antrim East2342957041923430341,352
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,329Antrim East2603057237323460351,339
Mid and East AntrimKilroot3,083Antrim East2293887048431690511,772
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,910Antrim East3533776338829580451,673
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,356Antrim East1602867537424540401,355
Mid and East AntrimSlemish251Antrim Mid15386272704144
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands3,076Antrim East2553890742631630491,769
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,640Antrim East18642697367311490461,518
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,710Antrim East1543178944827630461,558
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,561Antrim East2323261448225500381,473
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,554Antrim East2713270135225490381,468
 Total64,830 5,47590116,87510,1676862,12101,04537,270

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove3,134Antrim South5411286224030183001,877
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,672Antrim South481985253350163001,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East3,021Antrim East557637703190101001,810
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,507Antrim East49252638242079001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,497Antrim East2853136616804700897
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,020Belfast North1753120914405200611
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,421Antrim East50549589237072001,452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,449Antrim East50850607230073001,468
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,064Belfast North34645514251080001,236
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,827Belfast North32442436216076001,094
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill264Belfast North26587310800157
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,352Antrim South493964042430174001,410
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,353Antrim Mid352984732700218001,411
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,860Antrim South3901213352720597001,715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,411Antrim Mid51249562250072001,445
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,230Antrim East43345509276072001,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,237Antrim South43177457305071001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,265Antrim South38058578257084001,357
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown775Belfast North1242912810607700464
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown179Antrim East38435240600107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,380Antrim South6691415484370231002,026
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,662Antrim East50054649306086001,595
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,204Antrim Mid37562585238061001,321
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,640Antrim Mid3291114432910407001,581
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,464Antrim Mid3891005133040171001,477
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,560Antrim South6321436585060194002,133
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,612Antrim South45063675294083001,565
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,768Antrim South4341025553760191001,658
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,251Antrim South47670484255065001,350
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,567Antrim Mid3161103132370563001,539
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,578Antrim South3161094662240431001,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,487Antrim South18252416141010000891
 Total71,711 12,4612,28815,1498,18804,8880042,974

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,073Belfast North0040287024000729
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,053Belfast North0035394026800715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill386Belfast North001423308700262
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney212Belfast North00781804900145
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,664Belfast North006631290338001,130
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,096Belfast North004591570807001,423
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,214Belfast North005031710829001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,554Belfast North008492330652001,734
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,327Belfast North00369119041300901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,209Belfast North009201520428001,500
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,276Belfast North009461580441001,545
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,298Belfast North006741650721001,560
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,088Belfast North008361610420001,417
BelfastArdoyne3,821Belfast North0066119001,743002,594
BelfastBallysillan3,521Belfast North001,4042070779002,390
BelfastBellevue3,625Belfast North0084323701,381002,461
BelfastCavehill3,104Belfast North0083125401,022002,107
BelfastChichester Park3,855Belfast North0091429001,413002,617
BelfastCliftonville3,840Belfast North0074821101,649002,608
BelfastDuncairn4,634Belfast North001,60833601,203003,147
BelfastForth River781Belfast West0031838017300529
BelfastFortwilliam3,339Belfast North0099124101,035002,267
BelfastInnisfayle3,661Belfast North001,14828001,057002,485
BelfastLegoniel4,006Belfast North0097922901,512002,720
BelfastNew Lodge3,474Belfast North0062017401,565002,359
BelfastShankill1,979Belfast West00831960416001,343
BelfastWater Works4,003Belfast North0075020401,764002,718
BelfastWoodvale3,132Belfast West001,2941600673002,127
 Total72,225 0021,1344,824023,0780049,036

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast North

The new seat of Belfast North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast North
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,073Belfast North0040287024000729
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,481Antrim East63233832881653025851
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,020Antrim South1753120914405200611
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,053Belfast North0035394026800715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill386Belfast North001423308700262
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill2,064Antrim South34645514251080001,236
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney212Belfast North00781804900145
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,827Antrim South32442436216076001,094
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill264Antrim South26587310800157
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill366Antrim East194114544906210
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,664Belfast North006631290338001,130
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,096Belfast North004591570807001,423
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,214Belfast North005031710829001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,554Belfast North008492330652001,734
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown775Antrim South1242912810607700464
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,327Belfast North00369119041300901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,591Antrim East2483369739326520401,489
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,209Belfast North009201520428001,500
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,276Belfast North009461580441001,545
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,298Belfast North006741650721001,560
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,088Belfast North008361610420001,417
BelfastArdoyne3,821Belfast North0066119001,743002,594
BelfastBallysillan3,521Belfast North001,4042070779002,390
BelfastBellevue3,625Belfast North0084323701,381002,461
BelfastCavehill3,104Belfast North0083125401,022002,107
BelfastChichester Park3,855Belfast North0091429001,413002,617
BelfastCliftonville3,840Belfast North0074821101,649002,608
BelfastDuncairn4,634Belfast North001,60833601,203003,147
BelfastFortwilliam3,339Belfast North0099124101,035002,267
BelfastInnisfayle3,661Belfast North001,14828001,057002,485
BelfastLegoniel4,006Belfast North0097922901,512002,720
BelfastNew Lodge3,474Belfast North0062017401,565002,359
BelfastWater Works4,003Belfast North0075020401,764002,718
 Total76,721 1,32521221,2596,0134622,22307151,149

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Belfast North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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