Belfast North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast North: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nigel Dodds  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,649
Turnout: 66.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP21,87245.2%
SF18,72438.7%
Alliance3,2366.7%
SDLP2,2114.6%
UUP1,3522.8%
Green6031.2%
OTH3850.8%
DUP Majority3,1486.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast North constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerDUPDUPCON
EU Leave %49%44%52%
British Identity41%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born94%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job47%47%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age47.547.248.4
ABC1 Class43%45%53%

Belfast North ranks #402 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Belfast North1656510176092021871
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761Antrim East78727761027011461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Belfast North1061483101605216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,199Antrim East221207002870740301,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Belfast North232258932460900381,524
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107Antrim East2952896745001020421,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,063Antrim East241455997903710321,250
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Causeway1754241290140012493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,316Antrim East262228141910810341,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,117Antrim East162237642190810351,284
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,040Antrim East209197261850690291,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297Antrim East14714472720701350321,392
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207Antrim East541446558103720321,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,546Antrim East722996832501020471,543
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833Antrim East125771,01321602400461,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,419Antrim East2752380018701460361,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360Antrim East9210280319302050361,431
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim Mid968260803114
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,307Antrim East198228242410800331,398
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,284Antrim East221217452920760311,386
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,260Antrim East248227452440790331,371
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992Antrim East183331,12630101190521,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824Antrim East3372898322101010431,713
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,286Antrim East118268752330930411,386
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim Mid108106801203147
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985Antrim East219311,16024401100471,811
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562Antrim East1267989115802580411,553
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630Antrim East95311,02828501090481,596
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,485Antrim East213238073440850351,507
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,478Antrim East257238982060840351,503
 Total62,909 4,5251,27721,8755,94603,557096338,143

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South5621716771490328001,887
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South5001145731290293001,609
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,875Antrim East629258371480180001,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386Antrim East553206941020141001,510
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,425Antrim East320114008508500901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Belfast North189282297409400614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304Antrim East566186431030128001,458
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331Antrim East56918662940131001,474
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Belfast North390205591310143001,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Belfast North360224741070137001,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Belfast North322931701500159
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South497121442500306001,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,239Antrim Mid346121509780363001,417
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South381156372340779001,722
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295Antrim Mid573186161160130001,453
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122Antrim East487175581510129001,342
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South472985021480127001,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South426456251170151001,364
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Belfast North1233214146012600468
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown170Antrim East421391501000107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South6781846041570412002,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,533Antrim East564207081570153001,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,098Antrim Mid42662631990109001,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,512Antrim Mid318141482730575001,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,345Antrim Mid3951265541030304001,482
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6611927212230346002,143
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South510457321380148001,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South4451156041620340001,666
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South523815301040117001,355
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,443Antrim Mid294145347330726001,545
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South281139504340594001,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South1905544328017900895
 Total68,247 13,3022,36316,5053,20507,7990043,174

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North020398621018705682
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North031351671120504669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North041422437102246
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North03771323901135
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North0126579413274081,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North0854709920657011,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North09251311222666021,407
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North056847169275110141,624
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North056371821531505844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North01190995163630111,405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North01293799163730111,448
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North066677100215860111,461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North010829118173440101,328
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North013269625271,5350162,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0221,39292266860212,239
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North0158858107361,1270192,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North0148835164377720181,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North0165928178411,1200202,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North013877656311,4240182,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North01391,598203479340272,948
BelfastForth River738Belfast West053168515805497
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0153990135377910192,125
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01711,142173427800212,329
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North0751,00084311,3340232,547
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North012665023251,3700152,209
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast West01382218133800121,258
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North013578234301,5470192,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast West0201,28141216100201,993
 Total68,248 02,05821,2442,47564219,159035845,936

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast North

The new seat of Belfast North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North020398621018705682
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Antrim East1656510176092021871
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Antrim South189282297409400614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North031351671120504669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North041422437102246
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Antrim South390205591310143001,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North03771323901135
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Antrim South360224741070137001,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Antrim South322931701500159
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Antrim East1061483101605216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North0126579413274081,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North0854709920657011,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North09251311222666021,407
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North056847169275110141,624
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Antrim South1233214146012600468
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North056371821531505844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Antrim East232258932460900381,524
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North01190995163630111,405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North01293799163730111,448
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North066677100215860111,461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North010829118173440101,328
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North013269625271,5350162,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0221,39292266860212,239
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North0158858107361,1270192,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North0148835164377720181,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North0165928178411,1200202,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North013877656311,4240182,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North01391,598203479340272,948
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0153990135377910192,125
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01711,142173427800212,329
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North0751,00084311,3340232,547
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North012665023251,3700152,209
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North013578234301,5470192,547
 Total72,649 1,3522,21121,8723,23660318,724038548,383

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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