Belfast North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast North: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nigel Dodds  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,649
Turnout: 66.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP22,26946.0%
SF18,84238.9%
MIN2,8325.9%
SDLP2,2104.6%
UUP1,2622.6%
Green5911.2%
OTH3870.8%
DUP Majority3,4277.1%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Belfast North42315570010611819873
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761Antrim East68428300207412461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Belfast North1181370026295216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,199Antrim East198128180057215351,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Belfast North226139350066245401,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107Antrim East280171,1540081303491,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,063Antrim East6923930600472142231,251
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Causeway279412100186569493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,316Antrim East230128330090206331,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,117Antrim East109148260070227371,283
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,040Antrim East173107840050189311,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297Antrim East12911864100247222361,393
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207Antrim East12411461600237213341,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,546Antrim East131179940084273441,543
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833Antrim East15914579100304274441,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,419Antrim East240138690095215351,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360Antrim East13212165900253228371,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim Mid118720012112116
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,307Antrim East196128860057213351,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,284Antrim East194128770056211341,384
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,260Antrim East224128120089201321,370
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992Antrim East154201,1680099321521,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824Antrim East280151,01500111251411,713
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,286Antrim East118168920076245401,387
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim Mid1410930016132148
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985Antrim East253151,1470074276451,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562Antrim East14413271600275248401,555
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630Antrim East135181,0260087282461,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,485Antrim East246138920098221361,506
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,478Antrim East210139520061229371,502
 Total62,909 4,5271,27821,872003,5555,95196538,148

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South584176585004568501,886
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South495876230026413801,607
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,875Antrim East68508050011321601,819
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386Antrim East5680668009417901,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,425Antrim East341037500631210900
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Belfast North1723221500156390614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304Antrim East5490645009017301,457
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331Antrim East5550654009217501,476
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Belfast North34665436003177901,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Belfast North30758385002807001,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Belfast North283860025180160
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South437132440003436301,415
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,239Antrim Mid338141494004043901,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South534161534004177701,723
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295Antrim Mid5470642009017201,451
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122Antrim East5080559009418001,341
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South415725230022211501,347
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South420735290022411701,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Belfast North1302416300119300466
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown170Antrim East40044008150107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South630190631004929202,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,533Antrim East60706670011321501,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,098Antrim Mid316132464003793601,327
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,512Antrim Mid379158555004534401,589
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,345Antrim Mid354147518004244101,484
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6601168320035318402,145
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South484866100025813501,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South513906470027414301,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South419126421003276101,354
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,443Antrim Mid368154540004414301,546
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South36188772002626901,552
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South2095144400151400895
 Total68,247 13,2992,36216,506007,7983,204043,169

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North09447010162487683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North029349011250264669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North0111280491101245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North0670025051134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North01469201625174111,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North0596940234985381,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North0627330245265681,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North0728450286076491,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North037439014315335843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North01991802133599141,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North019948021344102151,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North020957022347102151,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North01886902031693141,330
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North0958120271,350128192,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0877490251,244118172,240
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North01701,052035921111162,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North014590103078995141,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North01811,119037980118172,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North0958160271,357129192,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North02171,3440451,177142212,946
BelfastForth River738Belfast West01125007187365496
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0156969032848102152,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01711,063035931112162,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North0998510291,415134202,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North0867390251,228116172,211
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast West02863501847591131,260
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North0998510281,415134202,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast West0431,005028751144211,992
 Total68,248 02,05821,245064419,1602,47536245,944

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast North

The new seat of Belfast North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North09447010162487683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Antrim East42315570010611819873
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Antrim South1723221500156390614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North029349011250264669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North0111280491101245
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Antrim South34665436003177901,243
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North0670025051134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Antrim South30758385002807001,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Antrim South283860025180160
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Antrim East1181370026295216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North01469201625174111,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North0596940234985381,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North0627330245265681,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North0728450286076491,625
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Antrim South1302416300119300466
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North037439014315335843
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Antrim East226139350066245401,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North01991802133599141,406
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North019948021344102151,449
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North020957022347102151,463
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North01886902031693141,330
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North0958120271,350128192,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0877490251,244118172,240
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North01701,052035921111162,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North014590103078995141,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North01811,119037980118172,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North0958160271,357129192,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North02171,3440451,177142212,946
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0156969032848102152,122
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01711,063035931112162,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North0998510291,415134202,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North0867390251,228116172,211
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North0998510281,415134202,547
 Total72,649 1,2622,21022,269059118,8422,83238748,393

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast North.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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