Belfast North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast North: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nigel Dodds  (DUP)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,649
Turnout: 66.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP22,18445.9%
SF18,82438.9%
MIN2,9086.0%
SDLP2,2084.6%
UUP1,2792.6%
Green5901.2%
OTH3880.8%
DUP Majority3,3606.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Belfast North36305770010410717871
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761Antrim East74826300297512461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Belfast North981430026264216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,199Antrim East215237590084217351,333
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Belfast North245268680096248401,523
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107Antrim East303321,07300119307501,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,063Antrim East581216470032089141,249
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Causeway234825500126356493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,316Antrim East249258020091205331,405
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,117Antrim East103247580085270441,284
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,040Antrim East180217470078181291,236
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297Antrim East10110673200219201331,392
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207Antrim East9710270400210193311,337
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,546Antrim East1242991200103324531,545
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833Antrim East12513190300270248401,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,419Antrim East260268370095214351,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360Antrim East10410975200225207331,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim Mid9781001331114
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,307Antrim East204248450088205331,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,284Antrim East201248360088203331,385
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,260Antrim East243247820088200321,369
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992Antrim East145341,07200121381621,815
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824Antrim East3033097700110250411,711
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,286Antrim East111268190092291471,386
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim Mid1210105001751150
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985Antrim East263311,09500114264431,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562Antrim East11311881700244224361,552
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630Antrim East1282994200106335541,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,485Antrim East267278600097220361,507
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,478Antrim East218269080095220361,503
 Total62,909 4,5231,27921,871003,5535,94896438,138

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAldergrove2,983Antrim South5951575900043511001,887
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAntrim Centre2,543Antrim South501966310023414701,609
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare East2,875Antrim East663207870017817001,818
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyclare West2,386Antrim East550176530014814101,509
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff1,425Antrim East334113700092940901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Belfast North1723321300147490614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallynure2,304Antrim East532166310014313601,458
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyrobert2,331Antrim East537166390014413801,474
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Belfast North34767432002979901,242
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Belfast North30859382002638801,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Belfast North313880021160159
Antrim and NewtownabbeyClady2,238Antrim South446118443003278201,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCranfield2,239Antrim Mid344119504003985101,416
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCrumlin2,722Antrim South5431435380039710001,721
Antrim and NewtownabbeyDoagh2,295Antrim Mid530166280014213601,452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFairview2,122Antrim East498165520013714001,343
Antrim and NewtownabbeyFountain Hill2,129Antrim South419805280019612301,346
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGreystone2,156Antrim South425815350019812401,363
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Belfast North1312516200112370467
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown170Antrim East401440011110107
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMallusk3,217Antrim South6421696360046911902,035
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMossley2,533Antrim East594196590016316701,602
Antrim and NewtownabbeyParkgate2,098Antrim Mid322112473003734801,328
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRandalstown2,512Antrim Mid386134566004465801,590
Antrim and NewtownabbeyShilvodan2,345Antrim Mid360125528004165401,483
Antrim and NewtownabbeySpringfarm3,388Antrim South6681278410031219602,144
Antrim and NewtownabbeySteeple2,486Antrim South490946170022814401,573
Antrim and NewtownabbeyStiles2,634Antrim South519996540024315201,667
Antrim and NewtownabbeyTemplepatrick2,142Antrim South427113424003127901,355
Antrim and NewtownabbeyToome2,443Antrim Mid375130550004345601,545
Lisburn and CastlereaghGlenavy2,453Antrim South36391768002428701,551
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford1,415Antrim South2095344300140500895
 Total68,247 13,3012,36016,509007,7983,202043,170

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North01043208194345683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North037340010233436669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North0131250486162246
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North0768024791134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North0166690133005281,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North07367802046485121,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North07771602249190131,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North089825025566104151,624
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North046429013294548844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North02188801739970101,405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North02191601841072101,447
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North02292401841472111,461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North02084001637766101,329
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North0978530311,324110162,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0897850281,221101152,239
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North01521,047036917134192,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North0130896031786115171,975
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North01611,113039976142212,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North0978560311,332110162,442
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North01941,3370461,174171252,947
BelfastForth River738Belfast West01325507186325498
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0140964033846123182,124
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01531,056037927135202,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North01028940321,388115172,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North0887750281,204100152,210
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast West03464601747180121,260
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North01028930321,388115172,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast West0531,022027745126181,991
 Total68,248 02,05721,242064119,1602,47636245,938

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast North

The new seat of Belfast North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North01043208194345683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Antrim East36305770010410717871
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry971Antrim South1723321300147490614
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North037340010233436669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North0131250486162246
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill1,964Antrim South34767432002979901,242
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North0768024791134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney1,739Antrim South30859382002638801,100
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill251Antrim South313880021160159
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Antrim East981430026264216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North0166690133005281,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North07367802046485121,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North07771602249190131,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North089825025566104151,624
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown738Antrim South1312516200112370467
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North046429013294548844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Antrim East245268680096248401,523
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North02188801739970101,405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North02191601841072101,447
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North02292401841472111,461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North02084001637766101,329
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North0978530311,324110162,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0897850281,221101152,239
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North01521,047036917134192,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North0130896031786115171,975
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North01611,113039976142212,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North0978560311,332110162,442
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North01941,3370461,174171252,947
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0140964033846123182,124
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01531,056037927135202,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North01028940321,388115172,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North0887750281,204100152,210
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North01028930321,388115172,547
 Total72,649 1,2792,20822,184059018,8242,90838848,381

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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