Belfast West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast West: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,985
Turnout: 65.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF28,72959.7%
DUP9,49219.7%
MIN4,84810.1%
SDLP3,3416.9%
OTH1,1752.4%
UUP4621.0%
Green510.1%
SF Majority19,23740.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North01043208194345683
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North037340010233436669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North0131250486162246
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North0768024791134
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North0166690133005281,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North07367802046485121,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North07771602249190131,409
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North089825025566104151,624
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North046429013294548844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North02188801739970101,405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North02191601841072101,447
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North02292401841472111,461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North02084001637766101,329
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North0978530311,324110162,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0897850281,221101152,239
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North01521,047036917134192,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North0130896031786115171,975
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North01611,113039976142212,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North0978560311,332110162,442
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North01941,3370461,174171252,947
BelfastForth River738Belfast West01325507186325498
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0140964033846123182,124
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01531,056037927135202,328
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North01028940321,388115172,548
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North0887750281,204100152,210
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast West03464601747180121,260
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North01028930321,388115172,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast West0531,022027745126181,991
 Total68,248 02,05721,242064119,1602,47636245,938

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West0138148001,504200522,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West082793001,1464031052,529
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West0149160001,623216562,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West0168180001,828243642,483
BelfastCentral177Belfast South014190057205115
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West081777001,1223951032,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West0170181001,845245642,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West0183131001,370116301,830
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West073700001,011356932,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West0139149001,511201522,052
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West05249700718253661,586
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West0221158001,648140362,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West0332237002,479210553,313
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West0271194002,028172452,710
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West04643800632222581,396
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West0151161001,637218572,224
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West0225161001,681143372,247
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West0148158001,606214562,182
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West0211151001,574134352,105
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West06620090328198
 Total62,426 02,8605,4550027,1104,1331,07740,635

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann132260013045
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5441021,1320055143201,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid423788780042111151,547
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid507941,0530051133181,856
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1335810014193165
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West371103200060335565
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South2391959440013570101,593
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1561129520014133181,385
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid197508010013193261,280
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2151531,3080019183251,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South339747090014190261,352
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West23015498000116251341,765
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid228589260015223311,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South199508070013194271,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South1781207590090195271,369
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South21314390700107233321,635
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South244629910016239331,585
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid347777270015194271,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1921361,1670017163221,697
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South338747070014189261,348
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1711211,0400015145201,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West1951318330098213291,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South1561109470014133181,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South2712221,0720015479111,809
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South1831247840093201271,412
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South321716720014180251,283
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South416928720018233321,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South2011431,2230018170231,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid201518160013198271,306
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South3226127001891213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South23015498100116251341,766
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2982431,1770016987121,986
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South820420084082
 Total72,380 7,5353,38726,761001,5694,99568444,931

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast West

The new seat of Belfast West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West0138148001,504200522,042
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West082793001,1464031052,529
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West0149160001,623216562,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West0168180001,828243642,483
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West081777001,1223951032,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West0170181001,845245642,505
BelfastDunmurry908Lagan Valley371103200060335565
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West0183131001,370116301,830
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West073700001,011356932,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West0139149001,511201522,052
BelfastForth River738Belfast North01325507186325498
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West05249700718253661,586
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West0221158001,648140362,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West0332237002,479210553,313
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West0271194002,028172452,710
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast North03464601747180121,260
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West04643800632222581,396
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West0151161001,637218572,224
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West0225161001,681143372,247
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West0148158001,606214562,182
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West0211151001,574134352,105
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West06620090328198
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast North0531,022027745126181,991
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Lagan Valley23015498000116251341,765
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Lagan Valley1951318330098213291,499
 Total73,985 4623,3419,49205128,7294,8481,17548,098

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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