Belfast West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast West: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 77,806
Turnout: 59.8%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SF22,25747.8%
DUP9,14219.6%
MIN6,17113.3%
Alliance3,4807.5%
SDLP3,1596.8%
OTH1,7433.7%
UUP5901.3%
SF Majority13,11528.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %32%44%52%
British Identity25%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education26%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age46.347.248.4
ABC1 Class36%45%53%

Belfast West ranks #562 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Belfast West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,073Belfast North0040287024000729
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry1,053Belfast North0035394026800715
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill386Belfast North001423308700262
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney212Belfast North00781804900145
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,664Belfast North006631290338001,130
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge2,096Belfast North004591570807001,423
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,214Belfast North005031710829001,503
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,554Belfast North008492330652001,734
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,327Belfast North00369119041300901
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,209Belfast North009201520428001,500
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,276Belfast North009461580441001,545
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,298Belfast North006741650721001,560
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse2,088Belfast North008361610420001,417
BelfastArdoyne3,821Belfast North0066119001,743002,594
BelfastBallysillan3,521Belfast North001,4042070779002,390
BelfastBellevue3,625Belfast North0084323701,381002,461
BelfastCavehill3,104Belfast North0083125401,022002,107
BelfastChichester Park3,855Belfast North0091429001,413002,617
BelfastCliftonville3,840Belfast North0074821101,649002,608
BelfastDuncairn4,634Belfast North001,60833601,203003,147
BelfastForth River781Belfast West0031838017300529
BelfastFortwilliam3,339Belfast North0099124101,035002,267
BelfastInnisfayle3,661Belfast North001,14828001,057002,485
BelfastLegoniel4,006Belfast North0097922901,512002,720
BelfastNew Lodge3,474Belfast North0062017401,565002,359
BelfastShankill1,979Belfast West00831960416001,343
BelfastWater Works4,003Belfast North0075020401,764002,718
BelfastWoodvale3,132Belfast West001,2941600673002,127
 Total72,225 0021,1344,824023,0780049,036

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,299Belfast West01551969001,139292771,949
BelfastBallygomartin4,087Belfast West011076612508014851272,414
BelfastBallymurphy3,561Belfast West01202069601,236359872,104
BelfastBeechmount4,012Belfast West016023811401,365395992,371
BelfastCentral186Belfast South013158045246111
BelfastClonard4,003Belfast West024032811901,0604931252,365
BelfastCollin Glen4,047Belfast West016823810601,405377962,390
BelfastDunmurry2,958Belfast West01971811090986207671,747
BelfastFalls3,608Belfast West019831110809404601142,131
BelfastFalls Park3,316Belfast West01691959201,147280751,958
BelfastForth River2,561Belfast West068483750504305791,514
BelfastLadybrook3,558Belfast West020420712101,238255772,102
BelfastLagmore5,351Belfast West028730414901,9183911123,161
BelfastPoleglass4,378Belfast West019624811401,586349942,587
BelfastShankill2,255Belfast West060426650444268701,333
BelfastShaw's Road3,592Belfast West01542129301,256325832,123
BelfastStewartstown3,629Belfast West01962069801,312258752,145
BelfastTurf Lodge3,524Belfast West01162049501,213366872,081
BelfastTwinbrook3,399Belfast West01661969601,207268752,008
BelfastWoodvale322Belfast West0960100633810190
 Total65,646 02,9865,2201,883020,8656,1951,63538,784

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney78Upper Bann1421712010248
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,364Down Mid523707595700370572,016
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,609Down Mid433615663930670441,564
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly3,128Down Mid537667084580540521,875
BelfastBelvoir277Belfast South2210536601005166
BelfastDunmurry950Belfast West8035178223035018569
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,685Antrim South270687124480670441,609
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,334Antrim South226586534100140391,400
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,160Down Mid222406163700130341,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,207Antrim South280691,0064970200511,923
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,278Antrim South336445743550170401,366
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,976Belfast West26110157268601100551,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,497Down Mid250477523930160391,497
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,173Belfast South229405334530120351,302
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,307Antrim South246655004640670411,383
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,756Antrim South2576076142801020451,653
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,671Antrim South240517954570170421,602
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,338Down Mid412494584280150401,402
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,862Antrim South238718814600180481,716
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,273Antrim South403465143450150391,362
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,549Antrim South197568433760160411,529
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,528Belfast West249507444020300411,516
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,322Antrim South201597233560150391,393
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry3,049Antrim South325638924540460481,828
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,380Antrim South213685175120750411,426
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,160Antrim South377414673600130371,295
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,803Antrim South410705325990180511,680
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,998Antrim South216711,0334100190491,798
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,200Down Mid272405863730120361,319
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford360Antrim South3411945801306216
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,979Antrim South295747116100450511,786
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,346Antrim South327968116290880572,008
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward138Down South1362531050383
 Total75,735 8,6081,75819,58613,08601,10201,27045,410

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast West

The new seat of Belfast West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast West
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,299Belfast West01551969001,139292771,949
BelfastBallygomartin4,087Belfast West011076612508014851272,414
BelfastBallymurphy3,561Belfast West01202069601,236359872,104
BelfastBeechmount4,012Belfast West016023811401,365395992,371
BelfastClonard4,003Belfast West024032811901,0604931252,365
BelfastCollin Glen4,047Belfast West016823810601,405377962,390
BelfastDunmurry950Lagan Valley8035178223035018569
BelfastDunmurry2,958Belfast West01971811090986207671,747
BelfastFalls3,608Belfast West019831110809404601142,131
BelfastFalls Park3,316Belfast West01691959201,147280751,958
BelfastForth River781Belfast North0031838017300529
BelfastForth River2,561Belfast West068483750504305791,514
BelfastLadybrook3,558Belfast West020420712101,238255772,102
BelfastLagmore5,351Belfast West028730414901,9183911123,161
BelfastPoleglass4,378Belfast West019624811401,586349942,587
BelfastShankill1,979Belfast North00831960416001,343
BelfastShankill2,255Belfast West060426650444268701,333
BelfastShaw's Road3,592Belfast West01542129301,256325832,123
BelfastStewartstown3,629Belfast West01962069801,312258752,145
BelfastTurf Lodge3,524Belfast West01162049501,213366872,081
BelfastTwinbrook3,399Belfast West01661969601,207268752,008
BelfastWoodvale322Belfast West0960100633810190
BelfastWoodvale3,132Belfast North001,2941600673002,127
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,976Lagan Valley26110157268601100551,785
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,528Lagan Valley249507444020300411,516
 Total77,806 5903,1599,1423,480022,2576,1711,74346,542

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Belfast West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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