Belfast West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Belfast West: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Maskey  (SF)
County/Area: Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,985
Turnout: 65.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF28,46559.2%
DUP9,93620.7%
MIN4,1148.6%
SDLP3,3416.9%
Alliance1,3162.7%
OTH4440.9%
UUP4400.9%
Green390.1%
SF Majority18,52938.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Belfast West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Belfast West constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerSFDUPCON
EU Leave %32%44%52%
British Identity25%40%29%
Good Health44%48%48%
UK Born96%93%88%
Good Education26%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC43%57%51%
Average Age46.347.248.4
ABC1 Class36%45%53%

Belfast West ranks #562 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Belfast West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Belfast West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Belfast West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,014Belfast North020398621018705682
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyhenry995Belfast North031351671120504669
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBurnthill365Belfast North041422437102246
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney200Belfast North03771323901135
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill1,572Belfast North0126579413274081,058
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCollinbridge1,981Belfast North0854709920657011,332
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlebe2,092Belfast North09251311222666021,407
Antrim and NewtownabbeyGlengormley2,413Belfast North056847169275110141,624
Antrim and NewtownabbeyHightown1,254Belfast North056371821531505844
Antrim and NewtownabbeyO'Neill2,087Belfast North01190995163630111,405
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRathcoole2,151Belfast North01293799163730111,448
Antrim and NewtownabbeyValley2,171Belfast North066677100215860111,461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyWhitehouse1,973Belfast North010829118173440101,328
BelfastArdoyne3,611Belfast North013269625271,5350162,431
BelfastBallysillan3,327Belfast North0221,39292266860212,239
BelfastBellevue3,425Belfast North0158858107361,1270192,305
BelfastCavehill2,933Belfast North0148835164377720181,974
BelfastChichester Park3,643Belfast North0165928178411,1200202,452
BelfastCliftonville3,629Belfast North013877656311,4240182,443
BelfastDuncairn4,379Belfast North01391,598203479340272,948
BelfastForth River738Belfast West053168515805497
BelfastFortwilliam3,155Belfast North0153990135377910192,125
BelfastInnisfayle3,459Belfast North01711,142173427800212,329
BelfastLegoniel3,785Belfast North0751,00084311,3340232,547
BelfastNew Lodge3,283Belfast North012665023251,3700152,209
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast West01382218133800121,258
BelfastWater Works3,783Belfast North013578234301,5470192,547
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast West0201,28141216100201,993
 Total68,248 02,05821,2442,47564219,159035845,936

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Belfast West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West01571912901,467184152,043
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West0408754901,132401342,531
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West0991991701,591275232,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West01472323901,756284242,482
BelfastCentral177Belfast South013187059171115
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West02393942101,397394332,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West01592362001,808260222,505
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West022216811301,2685651,832
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West01893701901,242381322,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West01781883501,474163142,052
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West025551220712254211,585
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West022218510901,5889182,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West03142807302,460171143,312
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West01992353402,032194162,710
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West022486170628224191,396
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West01502091701,612217182,223
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West02161894301,68210892,247
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West0941971601,563287242,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West01731834801,549139122,104
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West03685089313199
 Total62,426 02,8615,454733027,1094,13134740,635

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann142264010148
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5101121,0832110500301,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid4151058069701030221,548
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid5201011,0031250790271,855
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1328792801503166
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West521082627905409564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South22313995815001020221,594
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1921328801460150191,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid199508251730150191,281
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2231241,3171890220281,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South330607951230190241,351
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West17528383527301710271,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid220599931680180231,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South208487462550140191,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South20815470917501020201,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South191731,00417901610281,636
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South195651,0532250200261,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid404856871730170211,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1791671,1591480200251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South396707361080170221,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1391051,0891370180241,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West213649841710420251,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South156140948980160201,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South290911,1801570670251,810
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South15316173122801150221,410
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South370526781450160211,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South4001658062460200261,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South1381521,3231140220291,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid267487991580140191,305
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South26261251302003213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2471609932760640271,767
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2602341,11621601330261,985
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South918379070181
 Total72,380 7,5353,38126,7654,99701,569068344,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Belfast West

The new seat of Belfast West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Belfast West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastAndersonstown3,137Belfast West01571912901,467184152,043
BelfastBallygomartin3,887Belfast West0408754901,132401342,531
BelfastBallymurphy3,386Belfast West0991991701,591275232,204
BelfastBeechmount3,815Belfast West01472323901,756284242,482
BelfastClonard3,807Belfast West02393942101,397394332,478
BelfastCollin Glen3,849Belfast West01592362001,808260222,505
BelfastDunmurry908Lagan Valley521082627905409564
BelfastDunmurry2,813Belfast West022216811301,2685651,832
BelfastFalls3,431Belfast West01893701901,242381322,233
BelfastFalls Park3,153Belfast West01781883501,474163142,052
BelfastForth River738Belfast North053168515805497
BelfastForth River2,435Belfast West025551220712254211,585
BelfastLadybrook3,384Belfast West022218510901,5889182,203
BelfastLagmore5,089Belfast West03142807302,460171143,312
BelfastPoleglass4,163Belfast West01992353402,032194162,710
BelfastShankill1,870Belfast North01382218133800121,258
BelfastShankill2,144Belfast West022486170628224191,396
BelfastShaw's Road3,416Belfast West01502091701,612217182,223
BelfastStewartstown3,451Belfast West02161894301,68210892,247
BelfastTurf Lodge3,351Belfast West0941971601,563287242,181
BelfastTwinbrook3,232Belfast West01731834801,549139122,104
BelfastWoodvale306Belfast West03685089313199
BelfastWoodvale2,960Belfast North0201,28141216100201,993
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Lagan Valley17528383527301710271,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Lagan Valley213649841710420251,499
 Total73,985 4403,3419,9361,3163928,4654,11444448,095

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Belfast West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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