Bridgnorth and The Wrekin: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bridgnorth and The Wrekin: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Pritchard  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 75,522
Turnout: 72.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority16,35429.9%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Bridgnorth and The Wrekin : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bridgnorth and The Wrekin constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Economic Position13° Right3° Right
National Position10° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education41%35%39%
Good Job55%48%51%
High SEC56%46%51%
Average Age50.448.748.5
ABC1 Class57%49%53%

Bridgnorth and The Wrekin ranks #187 for "Leave", #93 for "Right", #136 for "National" and #118 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bridgnorth and The Wrekin: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bridgnorth and The Wrekin been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bridgnorth and The Wrekin

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ludlow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ludlow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LudlowTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
ShropshireAlveley and Claverley3,225Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,7494481440260002,367
ShropshireBishop's Castle2,980Ludlow and Leominster1,24350532701140002,189
ShropshireBridgnorth East and Astley Abbotts5,303Bridgnorth and The Wrekin2,4289434640600003,895
ShropshireBridgnorth West and Tasley5,460Bridgnorth and The Wrekin2,5119854570580004,011
ShropshireBroseley3,713Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,3131,2041730380002,728
ShropshireBrown Clee3,167Ludlow and Leominster1,7744141080300002,326
ShropshireChirbury and Worthen2,453Shrewsbury1,0784162810270001,802
ShropshireChurch Stretton and Craven Arms7,155Ludlow and Leominster3,2241,2886540890005,255
ShropshireClee3,695Ludlow and Leominster1,6856293650350002,714
ShropshireCleobury Mortimer5,775Ludlow and Leominster2,9939422360710004,242
ShropshireClun3,193Ludlow and Leominster1,36851534301190002,345
ShropshireCorvedale3,033Ludlow and Leominster1,773332960270002,228
ShropshireHighley2,890Ludlow and Leominster1,2306162450320002,123
ShropshireLudlow East3,307Ludlow and Leominster1,13085133401130002,428
ShropshireLudlow North2,940Ludlow and Leominster1,17655332601050002,160
ShropshireLudlow South3,333Ludlow and Leominster1,3316554190430002,448
ShropshireMuch Wenlock3,446Ludlow and Leominster1,6805412700400002,531
ShropshireWorfield2,967Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,749311940250002,179
 Total68,035 31,43512,1485,33601,05200049,971

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ludlow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wrekin, The

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wrekin, The, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wrekin, TheTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
ShropshireAlbrighton3,491Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,6316724493690092,518
ShropshireShifnal North3,621Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,529842531163100432,614
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford3,956Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,966662491033000432,853
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,290Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,02246384601400101,653
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,444Bridgnorth and The Wrekin94959412273210061,765
Telford and WrekinArleston2,471Bridgnorth and The Wrekin6651,0062463180081,784
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,269Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,1853562327410051,637
Telford and WrekinCollege2,556Bridgnorth and The Wrekin76995836332400241,844
Telford and WrekinDonnington5,173Telford1,5851,8375414310000143,733
Telford and WrekinDothill2,089Bridgnorth and The Wrekin745549112692000131,508
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna4,869Bridgnorth and The Wrekin2,413831391228800213,514
Telford and WrekinErcall2,229Bridgnorth and The Wrekin9615234259190051,609
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery7,478Telford2,2022,8568410013600185,396
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,355Bridgnorth and The Wrekin75180044612300201,699
Telford and WrekinMuxton4,943Bridgnorth and The Wrekin2,2301,15966693000123,566
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,615Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,9659482051313800433,330
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East4,115Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,855856691163300392,968
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank1,137Telford361386133120009820
Telford and WrekinPark2,014Bridgnorth and The Wrekin73058541591700191,451
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,426Bridgnorth and The Wrekin95056912876200071,750
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,101Bridgnorth and The Wrekin98843615531300111,516
 Total68,642 27,45217,8881,3471,6578050037949,528

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wrekin, The seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bridgnorth and The Wrekin

The new seat of Bridgnorth and The Wrekin is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bridgnorth and The Wrekin
Old Seat CON
ShropshireAlbrighton3,491Wrekin, The1,6316724493690092,518
ShropshireAlveley and Claverley3,225Ludlow1,7494481440260002,367
ShropshireBridgnorth East and Astley Abbotts5,303Ludlow2,4289434640600003,895
ShropshireBridgnorth West and Tasley5,460Ludlow2,5119854570580004,011
ShropshireShifnal North3,621Wrekin, The1,529842531163100432,614
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford3,956Wrekin, The1,966662491033000432,853
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,290Wrekin, The1,02246384601400101,653
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,444Wrekin, The94959412273210061,765
Telford and WrekinArleston2,471Wrekin, The6651,0062463180081,784
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,269Wrekin, The1,1853562327410051,637
Telford and WrekinCollege2,556Wrekin, The76995836332400241,844
Telford and WrekinDothill2,089Wrekin, The745549112692000131,508
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna4,869Wrekin, The2,413831391228800213,514
Telford and WrekinErcall2,229Wrekin, The9615234259190051,609
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,355Wrekin, The75180044612300201,699
Telford and WrekinMuxton4,943Wrekin, The2,2301,15966693000123,566
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,615Wrekin, The1,9659482051313800433,330
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East4,115Wrekin, The1,855856691163300392,968
Telford and WrekinPark2,014Wrekin, The73058541591700191,451
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,426Wrekin, The95056912876200071,750
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,101Wrekin, The98843615531300111,516
 Total75,522 33,05416,7002,5281,3837560033854,759

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bridgnorth and The Wrekin. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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