Calderdale South and Queensbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Calderdale South and Queensbury: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Craig Whittaker  (CON)
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 79,422
Turnout: 70.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,39850.7%
LAB23,64442.2%
LIB1,4702.6%
UKIP1,4312.6%
MIN6871.2%
Green4070.7%
CON Majority4,7548.5%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Calderdale South and Queensbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Calderdale South and Queensbury constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position6° Right2° Left
National Position6° Nat4° Nat
EU Leave %57%58%52%
British Identity25%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job55%47%51%
High SEC54%46%51%
Average Age49.648.548.5
ABC1 Class55%49%53%

Calderdale South and Queensbury ranks #251 for "Leave", #231 for "Right" and #218 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Calderdale South and Queensbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Calderdale South and Queensbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Calderdale South and Queensbury

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bradford South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bradford South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bradford SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BradfordGreat Horton11,956Bradford South3,1983,649782096204907,245
BradfordQueensbury10,694Calderdale South and Queensbury2,9612,970953056108806,480
BradfordRoyds11,798Bradford South2,5204,047993377007507,148
BradfordTong13,424Bradford South East and Spen2,6204,987783616402408,134
BradfordWibsey10,062Bradford South2,0793,521982726106506,096
BradfordWyke9,817Bradford South East and Spen2,2863,190692755307505,948
 Total67,751 15,66422,3645171,7593710376041,051

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bradford South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Calder Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Calder Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Calder ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CalderdaleBrighouse8,562Calderdale South and Queensbury3,0492,7461442005709106,287
CalderdaleCalder9,156Halifax and North Calderdale2,2543,609379190123016906,724
CalderdaleElland9,009Calderdale South and Queensbury2,9033,2362231066308706,618
CalderdaleGreetland and Stainland8,669Calderdale South and Queensbury3,1482,6412282006308706,367
CalderdaleHipperholme and Lightcliffe8,538Calderdale South and Queensbury3,7332,162166954806606,270
CalderdaleLuddendenfoot8,009Halifax and North Calderdale2,5532,7402491787508805,883
CalderdaleRastrick8,629Calderdale South and Queensbury2,9792,8521729958017806,338
CalderdaleRyburn9,085Calderdale South and Queensbury3,6432,5391541895709006,672
CalderdaleTodmorden9,389Halifax and North Calderdale2,5283,65623720988017806,896
 Total79,046 26,79026,1811,9521,46663201,034058,055

The full details of these calculations are given on the Calder Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Halifax

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Halifax, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HalifaxTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CalderdaleIllingworth and Mixenden9,030Halifax and North Calderdale2,4033,2888034900006,120
CalderdaleNorthowram and Shelf8,208Calderdale South and Queensbury3,4061,91912111800005,564
CalderdaleOvenden8,690Halifax and North Calderdale1,8973,56210332800005,890
CalderdalePark10,736Halifax and North Calderdale1,6735,4151038500007,276
CalderdaleSkircoat8,948Halifax and North Calderdale3,3672,38220611100006,066
CalderdaleSowerby Bridge8,028Calderdale South and Queensbury2,5762,57916711900005,441
CalderdaleTown8,838Halifax and North Calderdale2,3103,23311633100005,990
CalderdaleWarley8,747Halifax and North Calderdale2,4993,12917312700005,928
 Total71,225 20,13125,5071,0691,568000048,275

The full details of these calculations are given on the Halifax seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Calderdale South and Queensbury

The new seat of Calderdale South and Queensbury is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Calderdale South and Queensbury
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BradfordQueensbury10,694Bradford South2,9612,970953056108806,480
CalderdaleBrighouse8,562Calder Valley3,0492,7461442005709106,287
CalderdaleElland9,009Calder Valley2,9033,2362231066308706,618
CalderdaleGreetland and Stainland8,669Calder Valley3,1482,6412282006308706,367
CalderdaleHipperholme and Lightcliffe8,538Calder Valley3,7332,162166954806606,270
CalderdaleNorthowram and Shelf8,208Halifax3,4061,91912111800005,564
CalderdaleRastrick8,629Calder Valley2,9792,8521729958017806,338
CalderdaleRyburn9,085Calder Valley3,6432,5391541895709006,672
CalderdaleSowerby Bridge8,028Halifax2,5762,57916711900005,441
 Total79,422 28,39823,6441,4701,4314070687056,037

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Calderdale South and Queensbury. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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