Causeway: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Causeway: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 76,688
Turnout: 56.9%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
DUP19,20144.0%
Alliance6,59415.1%
SF5,61112.9%
SDLP5,38912.4%
UUP5,38012.3%
OTH1,4163.2%
Green110.0%
DUP Majority12,60728.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Causeway : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Causeway constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017DUPDUPCON
Party Winner 2015DUPDUPCON
EU Leave %54%44%52%
British Identity50%40%29%
Good Health46%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job45%47%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age48.147.248.4
ABC1 Class43%45%53%

Causeway ranks #299 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Causeway: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Causeway been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Causeway

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,481Belfast North63233832881653025851
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff784Antrim East8310217106816012452
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill366Belfast North194114544906210
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,266Antrim East2332853440922430331,302
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,591Belfast North2483369739326520401,489
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,202Antrim East3114073461931590461,840
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,126Antrim East10745453301302460411,223
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin838Causeway48181841151191016483
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,387Antrim East2753063432624470361,372
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,182Antrim East1852759234622470351,254
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,102Antrim East2212656530421400321,209
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,367Antrim East1974855341528780411,360
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,274Antrim East13348502313312390421,308
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,624Antrim East1343073547927590441,508
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,920Antrim East19244787434331390501,679
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,493Antrim East2913362333726840381,432
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,432Antrim East15741618393291180431,399
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry194Antrim Mid13366202403111
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,377Antrim East2163064037524460361,367
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,354Antrim East2342957041923430341,352
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,329Antrim East2603057237323460351,339
Mid and East AntrimKilroot3,083Antrim East2293887048431690511,772
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,910Antrim East3533776338829580451,673
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,356Antrim East1602867537424540401,355
Mid and East AntrimSlemish251Antrim Mid15386272704144
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands3,076Antrim East2553890742631630491,769
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,640Antrim East18642697367311490461,518
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,710Antrim East1543178944827630461,558
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,561Antrim East2323261448225500381,473
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,554Antrim East2713270135225490381,468
 Total64,830 5,47590116,87510,1676862,12101,04537,270

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,464Causeway2171334631920393081,406
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,265Causeway255536711890119071,294
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,378Causeway273616782140124081,358
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,198Causeway249516491690130071,255
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,694Antrim Mid2921046382080287091,538
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,601Causeway31471785210097081,485
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,472Antrim Mid2391314591740401081,412
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,457Causeway29664744202091071,404
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,517Causeway2661255591920286091,437
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,599Antrim Mid2731315311850356091,485
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,792Antrim Mid2981146332010339091,594
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,339Causeway266556852140108071,335
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,627Causeway15686310114025806930
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,948Antrim Mid217104539175072061,113
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,536Antrim Mid304597492240105081,449
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,507Antrim Mid248149661271095081,432
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,365Antrim Mid22654814166084071,351
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,310Antrim Mid19783775164094071,320
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,332Antrim Mid1911505571760250081,332
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,503Antrim Mid27463806195084081,430
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,392Antrim Mid1901377311970104071,366
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,061Antrim Mid24949623163086061,176
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,847Antrim Mid23819071224602310101,627
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,249Antrim Mid26051638246082071,284
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,354Antrim Mid2311344611680343081,345
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry2,010Antrim Mid22459646144068061,147
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,446Antrim Mid266565652330269081,397
Mid and East AntrimKells2,433Antrim Mid26756799177083071,389
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,160Antrim Mid24271680160074061,233
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,134Antrim Mid255506021760129071,219
Mid and East AntrimPark2,130Antrim Mid216145588175086061,216
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,176Antrim Mid244505221780242071,243
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,839Antrim Mid20656587133063061,051
 Total77,135 8,1392,94520,8606,23105,633024544,053

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,450Causeway18120764918601060621,391
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,257Causeway5119636815804560511,280
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,964Causeway19926262340101210771,683
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,180Causeway5019332415304660511,237
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,422Causeway1681936641960990551,375
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,602Causeway17921371220301070621,476
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,084Causeway8319047315202340511,183
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,440Causeway11122763817801670641,385
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,541Causeway18320166523001060571,442
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,246Sperrin5322928517604710621,276
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,358Sperrin5523130418005060621,338
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,375Ulster Mid15223746618802400651,348
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,042Causeway7029739822906530791,726
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,239Causeway10818265914801210531,271
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,599Causeway17621658932501060621,474
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,390Ulster Mid13924444919202650671,356
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,075Causeway1451516051460850451,177
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,597Causeway11824266019201960671,475
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,566Causeway13822666025701100651,456
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,042Causeway1461634912280840461,158
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,334Causeway1532114833190950631,324
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,812Causeway16320086218501270601,597
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,059Causeway1111646111340990501,169
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,787Causeway15621681521101220621,582
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside3,081Causeway17028678727901420831,747
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,831Causeway18123673727301120681,607
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,410Sperrin7630939321602980761,368
Derry and StrabanePark2,463Sperrin8123639518604360641,398
 Total69,246 3,5966,15815,7655,92106,13001,72939,299

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Causeway

The new seat of Causeway is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Causeway
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,450Londonderry East18120764918601060621,391
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,257Londonderry East5119636815804560511,280
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,964Londonderry East19926262340101210771,683
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,464Antrim North2171334631920393081,406
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,180Londonderry East5019332415304660511,237
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,265Antrim North255536711890119071,294
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,378Antrim North273616782140124081,358
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,198Antrim North249516491690130071,255
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,422Londonderry East1681936641960990551,375
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,602Londonderry East17921371220301070621,476
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,084Londonderry East8319047315202340511,183
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,601Antrim North31471785210097081,485
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,440Londonderry East11122763817801670641,385
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,541Londonderry East18320166523001060571,442
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,457Antrim North29664744202091071,404
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,042Londonderry East7029739822906530791,726
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,239Londonderry East10818265914801210531,271
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,599Londonderry East17621658932501060621,474
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,517Antrim North2661255591920286091,437
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,075Londonderry East1451516051460850451,177
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,597Londonderry East11824266019201960671,475
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,566Londonderry East13822666025701100651,456
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,042Londonderry East1461634912280840461,158
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,334Londonderry East1532114833190950631,324
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,812Londonderry East16320086218501270601,597
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,059Londonderry East1111646111340990501,169
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,339Antrim North266556852140108071,335
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin838Antrim East48181841151191016483
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,627Antrim North15686310114025806930
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,787Londonderry East15621681521101220621,582
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside3,081Londonderry East17028678727901420831,747
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,831Londonderry East18123673727301120681,607
 Total76,688 5,3805,38919,2016,594115,61101,41643,602

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Causeway. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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