Causeway: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Causeway: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Gregory Campbell  (DUP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 74,510
Turnout: 62.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP23,10350.0%
SF11,72525.4%
SDLP4,4149.6%
UUP3,6878.0%
MIN2,5025.4%
OTH7521.6%
DUP Majority11,37824.6%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Causeway: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Causeway been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Causeway

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Belfast North36305770010410717871
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761Antrim East74826300297512461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Belfast North981430026264216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,199Antrim East215237590084217351,333
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Belfast North245268680096248401,523
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107Antrim East303321,07300119307501,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,063Antrim East581216470032089141,249
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Causeway234825500126356493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,316Antrim East249258020091205331,405
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,117Antrim East103247580085270441,284
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,040Antrim East180217470078181291,236
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297Antrim East10110673200219201331,392
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207Antrim East9710270400210193311,337
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,546Antrim East1242991200103324531,545
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833Antrim East12513190300270248401,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,419Antrim East260268370095214351,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360Antrim East10410975200225207331,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim Mid9781001331114
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,307Antrim East204248450088205331,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,284Antrim East201248360088203331,385
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,260Antrim East243247820088200321,369
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992Antrim East145341,07200121381621,815
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824Antrim East3033097700110250411,711
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,286Antrim East111268190092291471,386
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim Mid1210105001751150
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985Antrim East263311,09500114264431,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562Antrim East11311881700244224361,552
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630Antrim East1282994200106335541,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,485Antrim East267278600097220361,507
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,478Antrim East218269080095220361,503
 Total62,909 4,5231,27921,871003,5535,94896438,138

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,417Causeway66997920042790751,549
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,222Causeway1241027090046612101,423
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,332Causeway1301077440048913101,493
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,156Causeway120996880045212101,381
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,642Antrim Mid1481228430055414121,693
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,551Causeway1588599900941631351,634
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,425Antrim Mid1351127740050913111,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,410Causeway1498094400891541271,543
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,469Causeway681018090043692761,582
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,549Antrim Mid701048350045095791,633
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,738Antrim Mid1531268730057415121,753
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,294Causeway1281067320048112101,469
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,596Causeway44655230028259491,022
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,911Antrim Mid3910373700911391151,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,487Antrim Mid15216941001981561291,592
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,459Antrim Mid51132948001181781481,575
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,320Antrim Mid127471,0540011180671,486
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,266Antrim Mid46122874001081641361,450
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,287Antrim Mid47123882001101661381,466
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,455Antrim Mid134501,1160011885701,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,346Antrim Mid48126905001121701411,502
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,021Antrim Mid12413765001611271051,295
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,792Antrim Mid581501,077001322021681,787
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,206Antrim Mid13514835001761381151,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,309Antrim Mid126471,0480011180661,478
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,971Antrim Mid10840895009568571,263
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,399Antrim Mid14715908001911501251,536
Mid and East AntrimKells2,386Antrim Mid130481,0840011483691,528
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,119Antrim Mid116439620010273611,357
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,093Antrim Mid12813792001671311091,340
Mid and East AntrimPark2,089Antrim Mid43113806001001511261,339
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,134Antrim Mid13114807001701341111,367
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,804Antrim Mid9837819008762521,155
 Total75,655 3,4812,57428,520007,8753,2812,72448,455

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Causeway16913379400237105141,452
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Causeway1513447500579118151,336
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Causeway2031141,01200203198261,756
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Causeway1412945900560114151,291
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Causeway16713278500235103131,435
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Causeway124245604005491821,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Causeway91119721002594051,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Causeway107139843003044761,446
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Causeway1749886800174170221,506
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,174Sperrin1513347300577118151,331
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,283Sperrin1614049600606124161,398
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Ulster Mid16412977000230101131,407
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Causeway2018064100781160211,803
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Causeway98128774002784361,327
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Causeway17810088800178174231,541
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Ulster Mid16513077500231102131,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Causeway1431136730020089121,230
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Causeway113149897003235071,539
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Causeway122241596005401821,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Causeway1407869700140137181,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Causeway1609079700160156201,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Causeway134265653005932031,668
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Causeway90117711002564051,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Causeway133262647005871931,651
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Causeway147290715006502131,826
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Causeway135266658005972031,679
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,333Sperrin6123473300281105141,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,384Sperrin3913656700573128171,460
 Total67,037 3,1374,42419,7220010,8812,53833241,034

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Causeway

The new seat of Causeway is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Causeway
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Londonderry East16913379400237105141,452
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Londonderry East1513447500579118151,336
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Londonderry East2031141,01200203198261,756
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,417Antrim North66997920042790751,549
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Londonderry East1412945900560114151,291
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,222Antrim North1241027090046612101,423
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,332Antrim North1301077440048913101,493
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,156Antrim North120996880045212101,381
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Londonderry East16713278500235103131,435
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Londonderry East124245604005491821,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Londonderry East91119721002594051,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,551Antrim North1588599900941631351,634
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Londonderry East107139843003044761,446
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Londonderry East1749886800174170221,506
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,410Antrim North1498094400891541271,543
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Londonderry East2018064100781160211,803
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Londonderry East98128774002784361,327
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Londonderry East17810088800178174231,541
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,469Antrim North681018090043692761,582
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Londonderry East1431136730020089121,230
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Londonderry East113149897003235071,539
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Londonderry East122241596005401821,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Londonderry East1407869700140137181,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Londonderry East1609079700160156201,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Londonderry East134265653005932031,668
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Londonderry East90117711002564051,219
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,294Antrim North1281067320048112101,469
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Antrim East234825500126356493
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,596Antrim North44655230028259491,022
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Londonderry East133262647005871931,651
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Londonderry East147290715006502131,826
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Londonderry East135266658005972031,679
 Total74,510 3,6874,41423,1030011,7252,50275246,183

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Causeway. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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