Central Suffolk: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Central Suffolk: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Dan Poulter  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,014
Turnout: 72.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,98760.3%
LAB16,53029.3%
LIB2,6194.6%
Green1,7293.1%
UKIP1,4232.5%
OTH710.1%
CON Majority17,45731.0%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Central Suffolk : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Central Suffolk constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job53%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age51.749.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Central Suffolk ranks #263 for "Leave", #97 for "Right" and #143 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Central Suffolk: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Central Suffolk been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Central Suffolk

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bury St Edmunds

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bury St Edmunds, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bury St EdmundsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,872Bury St Edmunds8853264103100431,326
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,053Bury St Edmunds980339620630091,453
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,200Bury St Edmunds1,606885298016300222,974
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,045Bury St Edmunds9903323707000181,447
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,683Bury St Edmunds693366480760091,192
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,505Central Suffolk1,265798269013100202,483
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,822Bury St Edmunds7253611260700091,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,615Bury St Edmunds72427310802700121,144
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,507Bury St Edmunds1,625604115011700232,484
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,719Central Suffolk1,15747015809300491,927
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,444Bury St Edmunds1,365765155013400212,440
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,585Bury St Edmunds3,2841,547226027600415,374
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,853Bury St Edmunds1,235999285013700722,728
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,752Bury St Edmunds7523664306800121,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,393Bury St Edmunds1,487595193011200162,403
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,536Bury St Edmunds743254310520091,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,804Bury St Edmunds1,445843244014100212,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,926Bury St Edmunds7195415603700111,364
St EdmundsburyFornham1,561Bury St Edmunds762282310240071,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,693Bury St Edmunds896241280250091,199
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,733Bury St Edmunds8013473602900141,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,646Bury St Edmunds1,466838113014400202,581
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,141Bury St Edmunds2,9421,0281760104001004,350
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,039Bury St Edmunds6766715203600111,446
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,647Bury St Edmunds1,3404253903800341,876
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,930Bury St Edmunds1,3861,006132017700832,784
St EdmundsburyRougham1,795Bury St Edmunds8503523002900101,271
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,535Bury St Edmunds1,0331,22511406500672,504
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,518Bury St Edmunds1,52067421106800182,491
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,208Bury St Edmunds1,44260010906100602,272
 Total87,760 36,79418,3533,56602,5980085062,161

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bury St Edmunds seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
IpswichCastle Hill5,846Ipswich2,2451,4362221911360004,230
IpswichWhitehouse7,009Central Suffolk2,0752,3722202401640005,071
IpswichWhitton6,392Central Suffolk2,1202,09923388850004,625
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham1,705Central Suffolk7553177961210001,233
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham3,123Central Suffolk1,330608163115430002,259
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham3,700Central Suffolk1,731624167471090002,678
Mid SuffolkDebenham1,870Central Suffolk7814045557560001,353
Mid SuffolkEye1,701Central Suffolk7333623726730001,231
Mid SuffolkFressingfield1,807Central Suffolk8613356722220001,307
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham1,830Central Suffolk9512666619220001,324
Mid SuffolkHoxne1,622Central Suffolk7803221918340001,173
Mid SuffolkMendlesham1,783Central Suffolk8023623025710001,290
Mid SuffolkPalgrave1,826Central Suffolk9063162523510001,321
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield2,017Central Suffolk1,0203223226610001,461
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams1,845Central Suffolk9032857221530001,334
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett1,993Central Suffolk1,0063232523640001,441
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth1,912Central Suffolk1,0652581822220001,385
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham4,462Central Suffolk2,138736691431430003,229
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley2,423Central Suffolk1,2553613829700001,753
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh2,605Central Suffolk1,25846210230330001,885
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2,255Central Suffolk1,0913757125700001,632
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East5,730Central Suffolk2,5601,19125369730004,146
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West5,583Central Suffolk2,4561,198140171750004,040
Suffolk CoastalTower4,079Central Suffolk1,9308249452510002,951
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market2,120Central Suffolk8774639571290001,535
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge878Suffolk Coastal364182392129000635
 Total78,116 33,99316,8032,4311,6351,66000056,522

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Central and Ipswich North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Coastal

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Coastal, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk CoastalTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WaveneyBlything1,726Suffolk Coastal7773744605200131,262
WaveneyHalesworth3,799Suffolk Coastal1,470948129013300992,779
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon2,949Suffolk Coastal1,30063111009700192,157
WaveneyWrentham1,790Suffolk Coastal8113834506000101,309
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh4,041Suffolk Coastal1,85969425405500962,958
Suffolk CoastalDeben2,410Suffolk Coastal96547822308100151,762
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East3,923Suffolk Coastal1,86879912805000252,870
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North4,837Suffolk Coastal1,7711,42425206400293,540
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South4,911Suffolk Coastal1,9671,210237014900303,593
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West5,335Suffolk Coastal1,8721,66626806800313,905
Suffolk CoastalHacheston243Central Suffolk117421008001178
Suffolk CoastalKirton2,302Suffolk Coastal1,1563876106700141,685
Suffolk CoastalLeiston4,918Suffolk Coastal1,7171,3812400135001253,598
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham3,928Suffolk Coastal1,74873930905800212,875
Suffolk CoastalMelton5,134Suffolk Coastal2,304938310016300423,757
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm2,449Suffolk Coastal1,2484327002900131,792
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke2,370Suffolk Coastal1,08942713406900151,734
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford2,251Suffolk Coastal1,0734038707100121,646
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham2,413Suffolk Coastal1,0975507403000141,765
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham4,237Suffolk Coastal1,76385533705700873,099
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys4,497Suffolk Coastal1,9671,05319005500253,290
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2,241Suffolk Coastal97945015003100301,640
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market155Central Suffolk64351202001114
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge6,509Suffolk Coastal2,7301,401372021600424,761
 Total79,368 33,71217,7004,04801,8000080958,069

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Coastal seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Central Suffolk

The new seat of Central Suffolk is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Central Suffolk
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
IpswichWhitehouse7,009Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,0752,3722202401640005,071
IpswichWhitton6,392Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,1202,09923388850004,625
Mid SuffolkBarking and Somersham1,705Suffolk Central and Ipswich North7553177961210001,233
Mid SuffolkBramford and Blakenham3,123Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,330608163115430002,259
Mid SuffolkClaydon and Barham3,700Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,731624167471090002,678
Mid SuffolkDebenham1,870Suffolk Central and Ipswich North7814045557560001,353
Mid SuffolkEye1,701Suffolk Central and Ipswich North7333623726730001,231
Mid SuffolkFressingfield1,807Suffolk Central and Ipswich North8613356722220001,307
Mid SuffolkHelmingham and Coddenham1,830Suffolk Central and Ipswich North9512666619220001,324
Mid SuffolkHoxne1,622Suffolk Central and Ipswich North7803221918340001,173
Mid SuffolkMendlesham1,783Suffolk Central and Ipswich North8023623025710001,290
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,505Bury St Edmunds1,265798269013100202,483
Mid SuffolkPalgrave1,826Suffolk Central and Ipswich North9063162523510001,321
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,719Bury St Edmunds1,15747015809300491,927
Mid SuffolkStradbroke and Laxfield2,017Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,0203223226610001,461
Mid SuffolkThe Stonhams1,845Suffolk Central and Ipswich North9032857221530001,334
Mid SuffolkWetheringsett1,993Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,0063232523640001,441
Mid SuffolkWorlingworth1,912Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,0652581822220001,385
Suffolk CoastalFramlingham4,462Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,138736691431430003,229
Suffolk CoastalFynn Valley2,423Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,2553613829700001,753
Suffolk CoastalGrundisburgh2,605Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,25846210230330001,885
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2,255Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,0913757125700001,632
Suffolk CoastalHacheston243Suffolk Coastal117421008001178
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave East5,730Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,5601,19125369730004,146
Suffolk CoastalKesgrave West5,583Suffolk Central and Ipswich North2,4561,198140171750004,040
Suffolk CoastalTower4,079Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,9308249452510002,951
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market2,120Suffolk Central and Ipswich North8774639571290001,535
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market155Suffolk Coastal64351202001114
 Total78,014 33,98716,5302,6191,4231,729007156,359

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Central Suffolk. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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