Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 74,263
Turnout: 68.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON22,17343.3%
LAB19,60338.3%
LIB4,7449.3%
Plaid3,9547.7%
UKIP4730.9%
Green2170.4%
CON Majority2,5705.0%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age51.349.648.5
ABC1 Class43%47%53%

Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire ranks #222 for "Leave", #388 for "Right" and #328 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Clwyd South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,763Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire45552019290192001,215
DenbighshireLlandrillo865Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire229243101409900595
DenbighshireLlangollen3,099Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire83689641510314002,138
WrexhamBronington2,376Wrexham1,0394794326051001,638
WrexhamCefn3,870Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire8841,57643600106002,669
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,642Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4875051625099001,132
WrexhamChirk North1,868Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4197662228053001,288
WrexhamChirk South1,530Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire3745981422047001,055
WrexhamEsclusham2,105Wrexham5547622735073001,451
WrexhamGwenfro1,346Wrexham227615361803300929
WrexhamJohnstown2,491Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire6609053143079001,718
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,559Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4475321625056001,076
WrexhamMarchwiel1,790Wrexham6065331125059001,234
WrexhamNew Broughton2,606Wrexham5731,0872639071001,796
WrexhamOverton2,509Wrexham1,0975004428061001,730
WrexhamPant1,790Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire3957442026050001,235
WrexhamPenycae1,670Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4036591725047001,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,893Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5326801727049001,305
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,482Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire242733617023001,021
WrexhamPonciau3,662Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire;
Wrexham
8691,359131570109002,525
WrexhamRuabon2,251Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire49584822340152001,551
WrexhamBrymbo3,084Wrexham1,1498412339075002,127
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,641Wrexham3636633623047001,132
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,572Wrexham8031,28243580277002,463
WrexhamMinera1,877Wrexham5076781526068001,294
 Total54,341 14,64519,00472980002,2900037,468

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Clwyd West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Conwy and Colwyn491802140044001,351
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Conwy and Colwyn5164111300222001,162
ConwyColwyn3,623Conwy and Colwyn1,1301,03912200237002,528
ConwyEirias2,807Conwy and Colwyn85382411800164001,959
ConwyGele3,638Conwy and Colwyn1,2699313400304002,538
ConwyGlyn3,412Conwy and Colwyn7461,2205800357002,381
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Conwy and Colwyn1,8321,3474300133003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Conwy and Colwyn39434752005000843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Conwy and Colwyn2,3741,4116900320004,174
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Gwynedd34328180016200794
ConwyLlansannan1,480Gwynedd4413741100207001,033
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Conwy and Colwyn633763210090001,507
ConwyMochdre1,520Conwy and Colwyn346640160059001,061
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Conwy and Colwyn1,097676790086001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Conwy and Colwyn1,9221,31217000252003,656
ConwyTowyn1,880Conwy and Colwyn780472160045001,313
ConwyUwchaled1,098Gwynedd38929510007100765
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire398325140017900916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire825381230099001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5272108005100796
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire6444702100113001,248
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4483601200204001,024
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire1,1431,21416300468002,988
 Total58,262 19,54116,1051,095003,9170040,658

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Montgomeryshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Montgomeryshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MontgomeryshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy792Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire286841290103600545
PowysBerriew1,096Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire420991740114900753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,873Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery84813622001866001,288
PowysCaersws1,860Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery72019027702072001,279
PowysChurchstoke1,268Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery373973490124200873
PowysDolforwyn1,574Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery63614522701559001,082
PowysForden1,152Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery509891500103400792
PowysGlantwymyn1,622Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire57716926801982001,115
PowysGuilsfield1,854Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire68818230602177001,274
PowysKerry1,636Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery67614022401569001,124
PowysLlanbrynmair730Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire26581116083100501
PowysLlandinam1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4121101820135200769
PowysLlandrinio1,727Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire65817327401665001,186
PowysLlandysilio1,398Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5271462250135000961
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4621393120146000987
PowysLlanfihangel852Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire33778132083100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5001221550134900839
PowysLlanidloes2,292Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery80627737202991001,575
PowysLlanwddyn825Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire30186130094200568
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire78613021001677001,219
PowysLlansantffraid1,539Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire67712419801444001,057
PowysMachynlleth1,784Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire54626631302676001,227
PowysMeifod1,046Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire3961011610115000719
PowysMontgomery1,095Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4081111790134200753
PowysNewtown Central2,618Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery99638033102666001,799
PowysNewtown East1,639Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery321211438017139001,126
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery45817053201858001,236
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery6141341880144000990
PowysNewtown South1,507Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34440323301640001,036
PowysRhiwcynon1,741Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery65817127401776001,196
PowysTrewern1,130Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4501091700103700776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire3892102010144500859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire57028061402064001,548
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,819Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire45720152601749001,250
 Total50,754 18,0715,5448,79005231,9600034,888

The full details of these calculations are given on the Montgomeryshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vale of Clwyd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vale of Clwyd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Vale of ClwydTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Conwy and Colwyn523607130034001,177
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4875381800117001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire1,1329959200256002,475
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5291,073470081001,730
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Rhuddlan and Flint681518360044001,279
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5684582800106001,160
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Rhuddlan and Flint915933250043001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Rhuddlan and Flint1,203939200053002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Rhuddlan and Flint573502130030001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Rhuddlan and Flint1,3061,697440048003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Rhuddlan and Flint862971190028001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Rhuddlan and Flint1,1017054600123001,975
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Rhuddlan and Flint1,0341,207250029002,295
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Rhuddlan and Flint8371,035270096001,995
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Rhuddlan and Flint1,5842,3057300130004,092
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Rhuddlan and Flint8232,015670060002,965
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Rhuddlan and Flint7171,5431300115002,388
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Conwy and Colwyn53231631003200911
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Conwy and Colwyn43743120002600914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Conwy and Colwyn64034250070001,057
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Conwy and Colwyn5592945003100889
 Total56,892 17,04319,424667001,5520038,686

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vale of Clwyd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire

The new seat of Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,763Clwyd South45552019290192001,215
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Vale of Clwyd4875381800117001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Vale of Clwyd1,1329959200256002,475
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Vale of Clwyd5291,073470081001,730
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd West398325140017900916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd West825381230099001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd West5272108005100796
DenbighshireLlandrillo865Clwyd South229243101409900595
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Vale of Clwyd5684582800106001,160
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd West6444702100113001,248
DenbighshireLlangollen3,099Clwyd South83689641510314002,138
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd West4483601200204001,024
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd West1,1431,21416300468002,988
PowysBanwy792Montgomeryshire286841290103600545
PowysBerriew1,096Montgomeryshire420991740114900753
PowysGuilsfield1,854Montgomeryshire68818230602177001,274
PowysLlandrinio1,727Montgomeryshire65817327401665001,186
PowysLlandysilio1,398Montgomeryshire5271462250135000961
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435Montgomeryshire4621393120146000987
PowysLlanfihangel852Montgomeryshire33778132083100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219Montgomeryshire5001221550134900839
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773Montgomeryshire78613021001677001,219
PowysLlansantffraid1,539Montgomeryshire67712419801444001,057
PowysLlanwddyn825Montgomeryshire30186130094200568
PowysMeifod1,046Montgomeryshire3961011610115000719
PowysTrewern1,130Montgomeryshire4501091700103700776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250Montgomeryshire3892102010144500859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251Montgomeryshire57028061402064001,548
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,819Montgomeryshire45720152601749001,250
WrexhamCefn3,870Clwyd South8841,57643600106002,669
WrexhamChirk North1,868Clwyd South4197662228053001,288
WrexhamChirk South1,530Clwyd South3745981422047001,055
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,642Clwyd South4875051625099001,132
WrexhamJohnstown2,491Clwyd South6609053143079001,718
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,559Clwyd South4475321625056001,076
WrexhamPant1,790Clwyd South3957442026050001,235
WrexhamPenycae1,670Clwyd South4036591725047001,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,893Clwyd South5326801727049001,305
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,482Clwyd South242733617023001,021
WrexhamPonciau2,990Clwyd South7101,11010747089002,063
WrexhamRuabon2,251Clwyd South49584822340152001,551
 Total74,263 22,17319,6034,7444732173,9540051,164

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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