Conwy and Colwyn: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Conwy and Colwyn: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 80,108
Turnout: 70.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON27,04948.2%
LAB23,26441.4%
Plaid4,2527.6%
LIB1,5922.8%
CON Majority3,7856.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Conwy and Colwyn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Conwy and Colwyn constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC50%46%51%
Average Age53.649.648.5
ABC1 Class49%47%53%

Conwy and Colwyn ranks #292 for "Leave", #347 for "Right" and #340 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Conwy and Colwyn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Conwy and Colwyn been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Conwy and Colwyn

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberconwy

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberconwy, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberconwyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Gwynedd323244110012500703
ConwyBryn1,469Anglesey and Bangor3405582100124001,043
ConwyCaerhun1,599Gwynedd6403521400131001,137
ConwyCapelulo1,191Anglesey and Bangor39834841005900846
ConwyConwy3,269Conwy and Colwyn9511,1264200204002,323
ConwyCrwst1,706Gwynedd4704905800195001,213
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Gwynedd387298110017000866
ConwyGogarth3,088Conwy and Colwyn9859904300175002,193
ConwyGower960Gwynedd242294120013500683
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Conwy and Colwyn651478450083001,257
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Conwy and Colwyn81794911200120001,998
ConwyPandy1,454Anglesey and Bangor3605212600126001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Anglesey and Bangor5529542900102001,637
ConwyTrefriw996Gwynedd283282150012800708
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Gwynedd367283120017900841
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Conwy and Colwyn9556943200271001,952
ConwyDeganwy3,154Conwy and Colwyn1,3656779400106002,242
ConwyMarl3,109Conwy and Colwyn99591616200137002,210
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Conwy and Colwyn1,5721,0016500152002,790
ConwyPensarn2,269Conwy and Colwyn6336713300275001,612
ConwyTudno4,036Conwy and Colwyn1,0511,5776500173002,866
 Total45,250 14,33713,703943003,1700032,153

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberconwy seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Clwyd West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Conwy and Colwyn491802140044001,351
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Conwy and Colwyn5164111300222001,162
ConwyColwyn3,623Conwy and Colwyn1,1301,03912200237002,528
ConwyEirias2,807Conwy and Colwyn85382411800164001,959
ConwyGele3,638Conwy and Colwyn1,2699313400304002,538
ConwyGlyn3,412Conwy and Colwyn7461,2205800357002,381
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Conwy and Colwyn1,8321,3474300133003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Conwy and Colwyn39434752005000843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Conwy and Colwyn2,3741,4116900320004,174
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Gwynedd34328180016200794
ConwyLlansannan1,480Gwynedd4413741100207001,033
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Conwy and Colwyn633763210090001,507
ConwyMochdre1,520Conwy and Colwyn346640160059001,061
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Conwy and Colwyn1,097676790086001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Conwy and Colwyn1,9221,31217000252003,656
ConwyTowyn1,880Conwy and Colwyn780472160045001,313
ConwyUwchaled1,098Gwynedd38929510007100765
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire398325140017900916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire825381230099001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5272108005100796
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire6444702100113001,248
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4483601200204001,024
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire1,1431,21416300468002,988
 Total58,262 19,54116,1051,095003,9170040,658

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vale of Clwyd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vale of Clwyd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Vale of ClwydTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Conwy and Colwyn523607130034001,177
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4875381800117001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire1,1329959200256002,475
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5291,073470081001,730
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Rhuddlan and Flint681518360044001,279
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5684582800106001,160
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Rhuddlan and Flint915933250043001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Rhuddlan and Flint1,203939200053002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Rhuddlan and Flint573502130030001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Rhuddlan and Flint1,3061,697440048003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Rhuddlan and Flint862971190028001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Rhuddlan and Flint1,1017054600123001,975
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Rhuddlan and Flint1,0341,207250029002,295
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Rhuddlan and Flint8371,035270096001,995
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Rhuddlan and Flint1,5842,3057300130004,092
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Rhuddlan and Flint8232,015670060002,965
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Rhuddlan and Flint7171,5431300115002,388
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Conwy and Colwyn53231631003200911
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Conwy and Colwyn43743120002600914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Conwy and Colwyn64034250070001,057
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Conwy and Colwyn5592945003100889
 Total56,892 17,04319,424667001,5520038,686

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vale of Clwyd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Conwy and Colwyn

The new seat of Conwy and Colwyn is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Conwy and Colwyn
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Clwyd West491802140044001,351
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Clwyd West5164111300222001,162
ConwyColwyn3,623Clwyd West1,1301,03912200237002,528
ConwyConwy3,269Aberconwy9511,1264200204002,323
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Aberconwy9556943200271001,952
ConwyDeganwy3,154Aberconwy1,3656779400106002,242
ConwyEirias2,807Clwyd West85382411800164001,959
ConwyGele3,638Clwyd West1,2699313400304002,538
ConwyGlyn3,412Clwyd West7461,2205800357002,381
ConwyGogarth3,088Aberconwy9859904300175002,193
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Clwyd West1,8321,3474300133003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Clwyd West39434752005000843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Clwyd West2,3741,4116900320004,174
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Aberconwy651478450083001,257
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Clwyd West633763210090001,507
ConwyMarl3,109Aberconwy99591616200137002,210
ConwyMochdre1,520Clwyd West346640160059001,061
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Aberconwy81794911200120001,998
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Aberconwy1,5721,0016500152002,790
ConwyPensarn2,269Aberconwy6336713300275001,612
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Clwyd West1,097676790086001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Clwyd West1,9221,31217000252003,656
ConwyTowyn1,880Clwyd West780472160045001,313
ConwyTudno4,036Aberconwy1,0511,5776500173002,866
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Vale of Clwyd523607130034001,177
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Vale of Clwyd53231631003200911
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Vale of Clwyd43743120002600914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Vale of Clwyd64034250070001,057
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Vale of Clwyd5592945003100889
 Total80,108 27,04923,2641,592004,2520056,157

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Conwy and Colwyn. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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