Darlaston and Tipton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Darlaston and Tipton: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate: 79,537
Turnout: 57.0%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
LAB20,66845.6%
CON20,39145.0%
UKIP2,1054.6%
LIB1,2832.8%
Green7461.6%
OTH1610.4%
LAB Majority2770.6%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Darlaston and Tipton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Darlaston and Tipton constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABCONCON
Party Winner 2015LABCONCON
Economic Position8° Left3° Right
National Position14° Nat7° Nat
Social Position12° Con6° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %72%59%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born87%89%87%
Good Education22%36%39%
Good Job35%48%51%
High SEC29%46%51%
Average Age46.748.648.3
ABC1 Class32%49%54%

Darlaston and Tipton ranks #9 for "Leave", #443 for "Right", #53 for "National" and #10 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Darlaston and Tipton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Darlaston and Tipton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Darlaston and Tipton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Walsall South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walsall South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Walsall SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WalsallBentley and Darlaston North9,525Darlaston and Tipton2,3533,0312002408000435,947
WalsallDarlaston South9,795Darlaston and Tipton2,6552,8682002568000566,115
WalsallPaddock8,761Walsall and Oscott2,7551,98932524211500445,470
WalsallPalfrey11,409Walsall and Oscott2,2034,34321323310100307,123
WalsallPheasey Park Farm7,723Walsall and Oscott2,9001,3412302387100424,822
WalsallPleck10,471Darlaston and Tipton2,0583,9631862118900326,539
WalsallSt Matthew's10,340Walsall and Oscott2,4923,3372492409900406,457
 Total68,024 17,41620,8721,6031,6606350028742,473

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walsall South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SandwellCharlemont with Grove Vale8,509West Bromwich2,7211,6152112079600854,935
SandwellFriar Park8,858West Bromwich2,4632,1331682187300805,135
SandwellGreat Barr with Yew Tree8,864West Bromwich2,6581,82625021910200845,139
SandwellGreets Green and Lyng8,369Darlaston and Tipton;
West Bromwich
1,8842,5001361898000634,852
SandwellHateley Heath9,912West Bromwich2,5432,6051842369400865,748
SandwellNewton8,151West Bromwich2,4771,6981992008000734,727
SandwellWest Bromwich Central9,383West Bromwich2,0582,83316620610200745,439
 Total62,046 16,80415,2101,3141,4756270054535,975

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SandwellGreat Bridge9,422Darlaston and Tipton2,5741,958130272980005,032
SandwellOldbury9,774Warley2,4062,2941412701090005,220
SandwellPrinces End9,156Darlaston and Tipton2,5451,877117266850004,890
SandwellTipton Green9,209Darlaston and Tipton2,4332,017125256880004,919
SandwellTividale9,026Warley2,5951,723141265970004,821
SandwellWednesbury North8,909Darlaston and Tipton2,3841,894133251960004,758
SandwellWednesbury South9,022Darlaston and Tipton2,4821,857127262910004,819
 Total64,518 17,41913,6209141,84266400034,459

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Darlaston and Tipton

The new seat of Darlaston and Tipton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Darlaston and Tipton
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SandwellGreat Bridge9,422West Bromwich West2,5741,958130272980005,032
SandwellGreets Green and Lyng4,028West Bromwich East9071,20365913900302,335
SandwellPrinces End9,156West Bromwich West2,5451,877117266850004,890
SandwellTipton Green9,209West Bromwich West2,4332,017125256880004,919
SandwellWednesbury North8,909West Bromwich West2,3841,894133251960004,758
SandwellWednesbury South9,022West Bromwich West2,4821,857127262910004,819
WalsallBentley and Darlaston North9,525Walsall South2,3533,0312002408000435,947
WalsallDarlaston South9,795Walsall South2,6552,8682002568000566,115
WalsallPleck10,471Walsall South2,0583,9631862118900326,539
 Total79,537 20,39120,6681,2832,1057460016145,354

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Darlaston and Tipton. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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