Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,452
Turnout: 75.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,43247.1%
UUP24,13344.7%
SDLP2,6594.9%
MIN8871.6%
DUP4660.9%
Green4200.8%
SF Majority1,2992.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Fermanagh and South Tyrone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh18717003172100389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1371300212680286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone934800095713101,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone507630076892501,291
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone825700085052801,436
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone613770088323001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone36350005698201,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8768100337374401,771
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone569710087712801,447
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone519650077052601,322
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone35950005689201,105
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone800680074902701,392
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8207600316904201,659
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone501630076812501,277
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,002860096133401,744
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8057400316774101,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8157500316874101,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone47766007918301,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone50770007975301,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone39454005757301,213
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8217600316914201,661
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone33446005642201,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6395900235373201,290
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone761650074652601,324
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone74394009847401,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone785990010895501,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone65282008743401,489
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,13811000161,0426302,369
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone8071020010920501,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone53267007607301,216
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone70889009808401,618
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone686670096283801,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9599300138785301,996
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9188900138405101,911
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone8848600128094901,840
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9769500138935402,031
 Total70,599 24,3532,5880042525,228888053,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid102198377009874601,710
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone23261110011610277
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid137156499001,035601,833
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid12414245400940501,665
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone39441910019920475
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid12614345800949501,681
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid128128393008174501,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid99191363009494401,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid114221420001,0975101,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid124123379007884301,457
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid141141433009014901,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid141140431008964901,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid92180634006624901,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid102198376009864601,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid10311837700782401,384
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid98194679007105301,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Fermanagh and South Tyrone27201050012090281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Fermanagh and South Tyrone151159006750157
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid94186652006825001,664
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid113113346007193901,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid51124257008793501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid65160332001,1324501,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid121121373007734201,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid150149461009555201,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid86168318008323901,443
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid59145300001,0244001,568
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid62153317001,0824301,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid97191670007025201,712
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid12314145100934501,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid96190664006945101,695
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid63154319001,0894301,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid100193366009574501,661
 Total68,482 3,0154,56212,5650025,4551,093046,690

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone934800095713101,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone507630076892501,291
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone825700085052801,436
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone613770088323001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone36350005698201,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8768100337374401,771
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone569710087712801,447
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone519650077052601,322
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone35950005689201,105
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone800680074902701,392
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8207600316904201,659
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone501630076812501,277
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,002860096133401,744
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8057400316774101,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8157500316874101,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone47766007918301,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone50770007975301,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone39454005757301,213
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8217600316914201,661
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone33446005642201,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6395900235373201,290
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone761650074652601,324
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone74394009847401,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone785990010895501,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Ulster Mid23261110011610277
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone65282008743401,489
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,13811000161,0426302,369
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone8071020010920501,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Ulster Mid39441910019920475
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone53267007607301,216
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone70889009808401,618
Mid UlsterKillyman413Ulster Mid27201050012090281
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone686670096283801,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Ulster Mid151159006750157
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9599300138785301,996
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9188900138405101,911
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone8848600128094901,840
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9769500138935402,031
 Total71,452 24,1332,659466042025,432887053,997

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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