Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,452
Turnout: 75.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,46947.2%
UUP24,11744.7%
SDLP2,6494.9%
Alliance9151.7%
DUP4240.8%
Green4180.8%
SF Majority1,3522.5%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerSFDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity32%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born88%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job39%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age47.347.248.4
ABC1 Class37%45%53%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone ranks #494 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Fermanagh and South Tyrone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh1942504316300389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1441704211900286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,03266098509001,624
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone44468077767001,293
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone70479088638001,437
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone717720109752001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone44536076624001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8798907244688001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone63681088713001,446
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone46371077774001,322
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34152055701001,104
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone87370077436001,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone66710101724850001,659
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone52367077672001,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone83096099798001,742
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone948330148625001,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8506601213708001,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone44067077950001,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone62050098875001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone36956056778001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone74910409458655001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone30446055670001,030
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6207704431520001,292
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone79274077442001,322
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone71810101010858001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone9328101210759001,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone53882088853001,489
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,030136079151,110002,370
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone79710601111919001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone50372077628001,217
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone888570119653001,618
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone782380318569001,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone94583011413842001,997
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone886119011313779001,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone9412508410779001,839
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone811123029121,055002,030
 Total70,599 24,3552,586088742325,2310053,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid712193183401,069001,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone2134786013700276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid1291684453901,052001,833
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid961873183501,029001,665
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone375216311020900472
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid12988570340861001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid138130382370824001,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid108192342370967001,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid642433473601,212001,902
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid15283452500720001,457
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid112188338700958001,666
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid17889527710792001,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid106170666370637001,616
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid135181407400946001,709
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid50175243260891001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid67272579370779001,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Fermanagh and South Tyrone27101249011100281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Fermanagh and South Tyrone159591006300156
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid140125733380628001,664
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid15255489470587001,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid26171216220910001,345
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid571492973001,201001,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid123137321350814001,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid1311993604001,037001,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid13482590330605001,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid401832592701,060001,569
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid11791445330971001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid104246572400751001,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid13156679320756001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid72182641360765001,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid751333003001,130001,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid79263306330979001,660
 Total68,482 3,0164,56212,5661,095025,4510046,690

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,03266098509001,624
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone44468077767001,293
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone70479088638001,437
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone717720109752001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone44536076624001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8798907244688001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone63681088713001,446
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone46371077774001,322
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34152055701001,104
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone87370077436001,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone66710101724850001,659
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone52367077672001,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone83096099798001,742
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone948330148625001,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8506601213708001,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone44067077950001,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone62050098875001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone36956056778001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone74910409458655001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone30446055670001,030
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6207704431520001,292
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone79274077442001,322
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone71810101010858001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone9328101210759001,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Ulster Mid2134786013700276
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone53882088853001,489
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,030136079151,110002,370
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone79710601111919001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Ulster Mid375216311020900472
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone50372077628001,217
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone888570119653001,618
Mid UlsterKillyman413Ulster Mid27101249011100281
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone782380318569001,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Ulster Mid159591006300156
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone94583011413842001,997
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone886119011313779001,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone9412508410779001,839
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone811123029121,055002,030
 Total71,452 24,1172,64942491541825,4690053,992

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (23-Sep-2019 10:40)