Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,452
Turnout: 75.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,41147.1%
UUP24,13644.7%
SDLP2,6534.9%
Alliance9091.7%
DUP4670.9%
Green4200.8%
SF Majority1,2752.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Fermanagh and South Tyrone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh18518010217300388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1361307212700285
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone95082088576001,624
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone50765077706001,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone83972077510001,435
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone61279088853001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone36649055693001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8718204634739001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone56973087790001,447
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone51966077722001,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone36248055684001,104
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone81470077494001,392
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8167704332692001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone50164077698001,277
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,01988099618001,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8007504331679001,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8107604332688001,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone48164077912001,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone51268077969001,563
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone39753065752001,213
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8167704332692001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone33745055638001,030
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6356003424538001,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone77467077469001,324
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone74991099839001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone7929601010886001,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone65780088735001,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,118110093151,033002,369
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone8149901010911001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone53765077601001,217
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone71487099800001,619
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone674670569622001,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9429307813870001,996
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9028907512833001,911
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone8688507312802001,840
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9599507913885002,031
 Total70,599 24,3542,588088642425,2290053,481

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid103200372380997001,710
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone21241136011200276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid1291485093801,007001,831
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid117135463340915001,664
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone374119411019100474
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid119136468350924001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid132129388450817001,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid99193359370959001,647
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid1152234154201,108001,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid127124373440788001,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid146142427500901001,666
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid145141425500896001,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid93183647370657001,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid103200372380996001,709
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid98112385290761001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid100197693400704001,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Fermanagh and South Tyrone292010315011500282
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Fermanagh and South Tyrone161157806400156
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid95190665380677001,665
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid116114341390719001,329
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid51125249240897001,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid661613213101,155001,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid125122368420773001,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid154151454530955001,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid87169315320841001,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid591462902801,045001,568
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid621543063001,104001,656
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid99195684390696001,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid117134460340909001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid97193677390689001,695
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid631553083001,112001,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid100194362370967001,660
 Total68,482 3,0204,56212,5631,093025,4510046,689

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone95082088576001,624
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone50765077706001,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone83972077510001,435
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone61279088853001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone36649055693001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8718204634739001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone56973087790001,447
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone51966077722001,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone36248055684001,104
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone81470077494001,392
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8167704332692001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone50164077698001,277
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,01988099618001,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8007504331679001,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8107604332688001,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone48164077912001,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone51268077969001,563
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone39753065752001,213
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8167704332692001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone33745055638001,030
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6356003424538001,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone77467077469001,324
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone74991099839001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone7929601010886001,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Ulster Mid21241136011200276
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone65780088735001,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,118110093151,033002,369
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone8149901010911001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Ulster Mid374119411019100474
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone53765077601001,217
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone71487099800001,619
Mid UlsterKillyman413Ulster Mid292010315011500282
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone674670569622001,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Ulster Mid161157806400156
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9429307813870001,996
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9028907512833001,911
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone8688507312802001,840
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9599507913885002,031
 Total71,452 24,1362,65346790942025,4110053,996

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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