Forest of Dean: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Forest of Dean: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Harper  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 73,943
Turnout: 73.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,60854.9%
LAB18,96835.1%
LIB2,2874.2%
Green1,2832.4%
UKIP1,2602.3%
OTH5681.1%
CON Majority10,64019.7%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Forest of Dean : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Forest of Dean constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right8° Right
National Position11° Nat4° Nat
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC49%52%51%
Average Age52.150.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Forest of Dean ranks #186 for "Leave", #351 for "Right" and #225 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Forest of Dean: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Forest of Dean been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Forest of Dean

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Forest of Dean

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Forest of Dean, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Forest of DeanTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,541Forest of Dean1,07959854514600271,855
Forest of DeanAwre1,424Forest of Dean6303202729280051,039
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,411Forest of Dean4585062415210061,030
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,441Forest of Dean63231331332600171,052
Forest of DeanBream2,591Forest of Dean88184850544600141,893
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,587Forest of Dean8002762527260051,159
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,215Forest of Dean5242832323210013887
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,464Forest of Dean66430824312500171,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,927Forest of Dean8281,12467594800112,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West4,069Forest of Dean1,1911,50696847100222,970
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,518Forest of Dean852739150274400261,838
Forest of DeanColeford East4,363Forest of Dean1,4041,49388857400433,187
Forest of DeanHartpury2,016Forest of Dean93540443194900211,471
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,376Forest of Dean6802462723240041,004
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,102Forest of Dean1,15989458665800302,265
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,968Forest of Dean1,4301,17284817400552,896
Forest of DeanLydney East4,137Forest of Dean1,4721,24697907600393,020
Forest of DeanLydney North1,529Forest of Dean6074043735280051,116
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,804Forest of Dean1,2571,117238775200372,778
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,110Forest of Dean1,248712184326400322,272
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,691Forest of Dean1,19759960245700281,965
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,534Forest of Dean1,13653450525200261,850
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,292Forest of Dean6022622613270013943
Forest of DeanPillowell2,897Forest of Dean1,12680858595300112,115
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,553Forest of Dean7832752127230051,134
Forest of DeanTibberton1,367Forest of Dean698214481022007999
Forest of DeanTidenham4,535Forest of Dean1,972852290847500393,312
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,436Forest of Dean1,85254050272900102,508
 Total70,898 28,09718,5932,0301,2371,2390056851,764

The full details of these calculations are given on the Forest of Dean seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tewkesbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tewkesbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TewkesburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CheltenhamPrestbury4,221Tewkesbury1,95463135741790003,062
CheltenhamSwindon Village4,737Tewkesbury1,61387282448790003,436
GloucesterLonglevens7,920Tewkesbury3,3471,3785961812430005,745
TewkesburyAshchurch with Walton Cardiff3,761Tewkesbury1,66465528175530002,728
TewkesburyChurchdown St John's5,712Tewkesbury2,18688592060930004,144
TewkesburyCleeve West3,619Tewkesbury1,52548752329610002,625
TewkesburyInnsworth with Down Hatherley2,399Tewkesbury97834633650320001,742
TewkesburyNorthway4,218Tewkesbury1,784732375100680003,059
TewkesburyTewkesbury Newtown1,634Tewkesbury81621010236220001,186
TewkesburyTewkesbury Town with Mitton3,757Tewkesbury1,592664275120740002,725
TewkesburyTwyning1,377Tewkesbury663165753164000998
TewkesburyBadgeworth1,755Tewkesbury81220221915260001,274
TewkesburyBrockworth5,933Tewkesbury2,3661,268389572240004,304
TewkesburyChurchdown Brookfield3,426Tewkesbury1,41554543633570002,486
TewkesburyCleeve Grange1,682Tewkesbury68124624917280001,221
TewkesburyCleeve Hill3,424Tewkesbury1,92430618725440002,486
TewkesburyCleeve St Michael's3,628Tewkesbury1,51463639332570002,632
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,748Forest of Dean;
Tewkesbury
1,86046131628540002,719
TewkesburyHucclecote1,261Tewkesbury5471681721119000917
TewkesburyIsbourne1,630Cotswolds, The953131719190001,183
TewkesburyOxenton Hill1,332Tewkesbury76111565916000966
TewkesburyShurdington1,600Tewkesbury73020718912230001,161
TewkesburyTewkesbury Prior's Park3,417Tewkesbury1,32770729590600002,479
TewkesburyWinchcombe5,251Cotswolds, The2,43685933696810003,808
 Total81,442 35,44812,8767,9811,2051,57600059,086

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tewkesbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Forest of Dean

The new seat of Forest of Dean is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Forest of Dean
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,541Forest of Dean1,07959854514600271,855
Forest of DeanAwre1,424Forest of Dean6303202729280051,039
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,411Forest of Dean4585062415210061,030
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,441Forest of Dean63231331332600171,052
Forest of DeanBream2,591Forest of Dean88184850544600141,893
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,587Forest of Dean8002762527260051,159
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,215Forest of Dean5242832323210013887
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,464Forest of Dean66430824312500171,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,927Forest of Dean8281,12467594800112,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West4,069Forest of Dean1,1911,50696847100222,970
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,518Forest of Dean852739150274400261,838
Forest of DeanColeford East4,363Forest of Dean1,4041,49388857400433,187
Forest of DeanHartpury2,016Forest of Dean93540443194900211,471
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,376Forest of Dean6802462723240041,004
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,102Forest of Dean1,15989458665800302,265
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,968Forest of Dean1,4301,17284817400552,896
Forest of DeanLydney East4,137Forest of Dean1,4721,24697907600393,020
Forest of DeanLydney North1,529Forest of Dean6074043735280051,116
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,804Forest of Dean1,2571,117238775200372,778
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,110Forest of Dean1,248712184326400322,272
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,691Forest of Dean1,19759960245700281,965
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,534Forest of Dean1,13653450525200261,850
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,292Forest of Dean6022622613270013943
Forest of DeanPillowell2,897Forest of Dean1,12680858595300112,115
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,553Forest of Dean7832752127230051,134
Forest of DeanTibberton1,367Forest of Dean698214481022007999
Forest of DeanTidenham4,535Forest of Dean1,972852290847500393,312
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,045Tewkesbury1,51137525723440002,210
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,436Forest of Dean1,85254050272900102,508
 Total73,943 29,60818,9682,2871,2601,2830056853,974

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Forest of Dean. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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