Foyle: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Foyle: Overview

 Projection: SDLP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Colum Eastwood  (SDLP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,232
Turnout: 63.4%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SDLP26,98956.6%
SF9,88320.7%
DUP4,98710.5%
MIN2,0324.3%
OTH1,3432.8%
Alliance1,3212.8%
UUP1,1262.4%
Green70.0%
SDLP Majority17,10635.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Foyle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Foyle constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SDLPDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SDLPDUPCON
EU Leave %22%44%52%
British Identity20%40%29%
Good Health48%48%48%
UK Born93%93%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job46%47%51%
High SEC50%57%51%
Average Age45.647.248.4
ABC1 Class41%45%53%

Foyle ranks #592 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Foyle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Foyle been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Foyle

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Foyle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Foyle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: FoyleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty3,078Foyle371,1474547054478551,953
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,609Foyle308073839062965461,654
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,365Foyle288863436041459431,500
Derry and StrabaneCaw3,156Foyle591,00457761014499572,001
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,543Foyle308223838057365451,611
Derry and StrabaneClaudy14Sperrin051002008
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,620Foyle4799310641035474461,661
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,497Foyle297803637059561441,582
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,339Foyle277043435058458421,484
Derry and StrabaneCulmore3,123Foyle371,3564258036271531,979
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe3,104Foyle5695561350014395571,969
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,920Foyle551,04339755015792531,852
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,887Foyle551,03743559010390521,831
Derry and StrabaneEnagh3,026Foyle581,12326260026894541,919
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,352Foyle279453436034959431,493
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh3,056Foyle361,0804446060176551,938
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan3,078Foyle591,19534262014494551,951
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,627Foyle4881251745011581481,666
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,675Foyle331,1713949028869471,696
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,690Foyle5285550255010984481,705
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,320Foyle451,4135167037792602,105
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,611Foyle309613739047864461,655
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,176Foyle371,2664452047978562,012
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,650Foyle308713740059164471,680
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,997Foyle351,1564347049075531,899
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,572Foyle29500298280654928997
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,390Foyle289163436040059431,516
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,872Foyle521,0799147041287521,820
 Total74,347 1,08926,8824,7711,26509,7702,0321,32847,137

The full details of these calculations are given on the Foyle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tyrone West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tyrone West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tyrone WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,546Sperrin109246559129194820391,583
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,707Sperrin55344232155218320451,684
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,508Sperrin122221418123196190371,559
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,525Sperrin121206694119193730371,569
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,159Sperrin136355294175249280501,962
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,365Sperrin117201448114185370351,470
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,268Sperrin76246373120185410361,410
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,370Sperrin121186547111184570341,474
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,752Sperrin133270362141217410421,710
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk899Foyle37112217567115015559
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,588Sperrin54323239147207830431,609
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,330Sperrin48287203131187220381,447
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,078Sperrin108181290118175520261,292
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,232Sperrin112239539160192870321,388
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,561Sperrin88404227220215940371,591
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,821Sperrin92226358154162590281,133
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore2,049Sperrin97244216125175450291,273
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,227Sperrin98226181128167050301,384
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,053Sperrin98225244112165510291,275
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water2,043Sperrin108222385132183780261,269
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,828Sperrin87196236102154720291,137
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,364Sperrin119221233157196880311,468
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,381Sperrin82361214177205920341,480
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,211Sperrin85343209179185070321,373
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,861Sperrin92205266105154510241,158
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,904Sperrin72185145102146420241,184
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,085Sperrin92189168109156980261,297
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule2,002Sperrin60278210180174640351,244
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,682Sperrin6617813293125420221,045
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,860Sperrin90209227105154870251,158
 Total66,259 2,7757,3299,0663,97952216,544097041,185

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tyrone West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Foyle

The new seat of Foyle is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Foyle
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneBallymagroarty3,078Foyle371,1474547054478551,953
Derry and StrabaneBrandywell2,609Foyle308073839062965461,654
Derry and StrabaneCarn Hill2,365Foyle288863436041459431,500
Derry and StrabaneCaw3,156Foyle591,00457761014499572,001
Derry and StrabaneCity Walls2,543Foyle308223838057365451,611
Derry and StrabaneClondermot2,620Foyle4799310641035474461,661
Derry and StrabaneCreggan2,497Foyle297803637059561441,582
Derry and StrabaneCreggan South2,339Foyle277043435058458421,484
Derry and StrabaneCulmore3,123Foyle371,3564258036271531,979
Derry and StrabaneDrumahoe3,104Foyle5695561350014395571,969
Derry and StrabaneEbrington2,920Foyle551,04339755015792531,852
Derry and StrabaneEglinton2,887Foyle551,03743559010390521,831
Derry and StrabaneEnagh3,026Foyle581,12326260026894541,919
Derry and StrabaneFoyle Springs2,352Foyle279453436034959431,493
Derry and StrabaneGalliagh3,056Foyle361,0804446060176551,938
Derry and StrabaneKilfennan3,078Foyle591,19534262014494551,951
Derry and StrabaneLisnagelvin2,627Foyle4881251745011581481,666
Derry and StrabaneMadam's Bank2,675Foyle331,1713949028869471,696
Derry and StrabaneNew Buildings2,690Foyle5285550255010984481,705
Derry and StrabaneNorthland3,320Foyle451,4135167037792602,105
Derry and StrabaneShantallow2,611Foyle309613739047864461,655
Derry and StrabaneShantallow East3,176Foyle371,2664452047978562,012
Derry and StrabaneSheriff's Mountain2,650Foyle308713740059164471,680
Derry and StrabaneSkeoge2,997Foyle351,1564347049075531,899
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk899Tyrone West37112217567115015559
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk1,572Foyle29500298280654928997
Derry and StrabaneSpringtown2,390Foyle289163436040059431,516
Derry and StrabaneVictoria2,872Foyle521,0799147041287521,820
 Total75,232 1,12626,9894,9871,32179,8832,0321,34347,688

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Foyle. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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