Gower and Swansea West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Gower and Swansea West: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Geraint Davies  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 80,177
Turnout: 67.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB28,80453.0%
CON20,98738.6%
Plaid2,0443.8%
LIB1,6953.1%
UKIP3850.7%
Green3300.6%
OTH1430.3%
LAB Majority7,81714.4%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Gower and Swansea West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Gower and Swansea West constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left10° Left
National Position5° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %47%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born93%95%88%
Good Education48%36%39%
Good Job55%46%51%
High SEC54%46%51%
Average Age49.149.648.5
ABC1 Class59%47%53%

Gower and Swansea West ranks #429 for "Leave", #441 for "Right" and #442 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gower and Swansea West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Gower and Swansea West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Gower and Swansea West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Gower

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gower, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GowerTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaGower2,961Gower and Swansea West1,11483611227073082,170
SwanseaGowerton4,156Gower and Swansea West1,2621,5924943092093,047
SwanseaLower Loughor1,901Llanelli4358154719078011,395
SwanseaMawr1,454Swansea East456479916099071,066
SwanseaNewton2,632Gower and Swansea West1,1995908221033041,929
SwanseaOystermouth3,326Gower and Swansea West1,3089675727072062,437
SwanseaPontardulais5,012Llanelli1,4332,007435901160163,674
SwanseaWest Cross5,187Gower and Swansea West1,5882,0226047079073,803
SwanseaBishopston2,645Gower and Swansea West1,0547593926052091,939
SwanseaClydach5,986Swansea East1,5772,58153680950134,387
SwanseaFairwood2,324Gower and Swansea West1,0055697018039011,702
SwanseaGorseinon3,331Llanelli8181,364403801730102,443
SwanseaKingsbridge3,188Llanelli8141,3882837062082,337
SwanseaLlangyfelach4,042Swansea East1,3811,39844470830102,963
SwanseaPenclawdd2,894Gower and Swansea West8281,1722328062092,122
SwanseaPenllergaer2,302Swansea East7918082224036061,687
SwanseaPennard2,094Gower and Swansea West769553472201300141,535
SwanseaPenyrheol4,599Llanelli1,0911,98043500199083,371
SwanseaUpper Loughor2,130Llanelli5348456223095031,562
 Total62,164 19,45722,72593064001,668014945,569

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gower seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Swansea East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Swansea East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Swansea EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaSt Thomas5,216Swansea East7882,068478930113003,135
SwanseaBonymaen4,980Swansea East7561,985209024118002,993
SwanseaClydach101Swansea East183702030060
SwanseaCockett573Gower and Swansea West92188101134000344
SwanseaCwmbwrla5,676Gower and Swansea West9261,99313811534203003,409
SwanseaLandore4,466Swansea East6341,739738026133002,685
SwanseaLlangyfelach92Swansea East212802230056
SwanseaLlansamlet10,471Swansea East1,7943,9367117644271006,292
SwanseaMorriston12,163Swansea East2,0684,32216622259470007,307
SwanseaMynyddbach6,421Swansea East1,0632,4076812231166003,857
SwanseaPenderry8,361Swansea East9793,60631132106168005,022
 Total58,520 9,13922,3096241,0413591,6880035,160

The full details of these calculations are given on the Swansea East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Swansea West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Swansea West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Swansea WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaKillay North2,443Gower and Swansea West60383570012700101,600
SwanseaKillay South1,561Gower and Swansea West405553350623001,022
SwanseaMayals1,872Gower and Swansea West629525410623021,226
SwanseaSketty10,079Gower and Swansea West2,6883,2292330414010136,605
SwanseaUplands11,124Gower and Swansea West2,2304,37727301682150277,290
SwanseaCastle11,051Swansea East1,8184,65525801393580147,242
SwanseaCockett9,351Gower and Swansea West1,7383,8071940293490116,128
SwanseaDunvant3,125Gower and Swansea West8131,0947701245072,048
SwanseaLandore132Swansea East206130020086
SwanseaTownhill6,154Gower and Swansea West7363,1438501943064,032
 Total56,892 11,68022,2791,26904321,52909037,279

The full details of these calculations are given on the Swansea West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Gower and Swansea West

The new seat of Gower and Swansea West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Gower and Swansea West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaBishopston2,645Gower1,0547593926052091,939
SwanseaCockett9,351Swansea West1,7383,8071940293490116,128
SwanseaCockett573Swansea East92188101134000344
SwanseaCwmbwrla5,676Swansea East9261,99313811534203003,409
SwanseaDunvant3,125Swansea West8131,0947701245072,048
SwanseaFairwood2,324Gower1,0055697018039011,702
SwanseaGower2,961Gower1,11483611227073082,170
SwanseaGowerton4,156Gower1,2621,5924943092093,047
SwanseaKillay North2,443Swansea West60383570012700101,600
SwanseaKillay South1,561Swansea West405553350623001,022
SwanseaMayals1,872Swansea West629525410623021,226
SwanseaNewton2,632Gower1,1995908221033041,929
SwanseaOystermouth3,326Gower1,3089675727072062,437
SwanseaPenclawdd2,894Gower8281,1722328062092,122
SwanseaPennard2,094Gower769553472201300141,535
SwanseaSketty10,079Swansea West2,6883,2292330414010136,605
SwanseaTownhill6,154Swansea West7363,1438501943064,032
SwanseaUplands11,124Swansea West2,2304,37727301682150277,290
SwanseaWest Cross5,187Gower1,5882,0226047079073,803
 Total80,177 20,98728,8041,6953853302,044014354,388

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Gower and Swansea West.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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