Gwynedd: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Gwynedd: Overview

 Projection: Plaid seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Liz Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 78,324
Turnout: 68.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
Plaid21,19739.6%
LAB15,25228.5%
CON15,18628.3%
LIB1,3342.5%
UKIP6161.1%
Plaid Majority5,94511.1%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Gwynedd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Gwynedd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position14° Left10° Left
National Position5° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %46%53%52%
British Identity20%26%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education37%36%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age52.749.648.5
ABC1 Class44%47%53%

Gwynedd ranks #452 for "Leave", #537 for "Right" and #439 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gwynedd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Gwynedd been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Gwynedd

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberconwy

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberconwy, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberconwyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Gwynedd323244110012500703
ConwyBryn1,469Anglesey and Bangor3405582100124001,043
ConwyCaerhun1,599Gwynedd6403521400131001,137
ConwyCapelulo1,191Anglesey and Bangor39834841005900846
ConwyConwy3,269Conwy and Colwyn9511,1264200204002,323
ConwyCrwst1,706Gwynedd4704905800195001,213
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Gwynedd387298110017000866
ConwyGogarth3,088Conwy and Colwyn9859904300175002,193
ConwyGower960Gwynedd242294120013500683
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Conwy and Colwyn651478450083001,257
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Conwy and Colwyn81794911200120001,998
ConwyPandy1,454Anglesey and Bangor3605212600126001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Anglesey and Bangor5529542900102001,637
ConwyTrefriw996Gwynedd283282150012800708
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Gwynedd367283120017900841
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Conwy and Colwyn9556943200271001,952
ConwyDeganwy3,154Conwy and Colwyn1,3656779400106002,242
ConwyMarl3,109Conwy and Colwyn99591616200137002,210
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Conwy and Colwyn1,5721,0016500152002,790
ConwyPensarn2,269Conwy and Colwyn6336713300275001,612
ConwyTudno4,036Conwy and Colwyn1,0511,5776500173002,866
 Total45,250 14,33713,703943003,1700032,153

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberconwy seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Arfon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Arfon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ArfonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd948Anglesey and Bangor12919060032200647
GwyneddBethel972Gwynedd13131850020800662
GwyneddBontnewydd785Gwynedd9516790026500536
GwyneddCadnant1,407Gwynedd108450180038400960
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo675Gwynedd8525490011200460
GwyneddDeiniol1,310Anglesey and Bangor119454400028000893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,316Gwynedd132366110038900898
GwyneddDewi1,293Anglesey and Bangor120373340035400881
GwyneddGarth681Anglesey and Bangor70174120020800464
GwyneddGerlan1,626Anglesey and Bangor1353932700555001,110
GwyneddGlyder1,186Anglesey and Bangor136269420036200809
GwyneddGroeslon1,178Gwynedd181327120028200802
GwyneddHendre1,017Anglesey and Bangor85342100025700694
GwyneddHirael1,137Anglesey and Bangor117406440020800775
GwyneddLlanberis1,392Gwynedd185409240033200950
GwyneddLlanllyfni863Gwynedd8321660028400589
GwyneddLlanrug1,314Gwynedd150289150044200896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,381Gwynedd195325150040600941
GwyneddMarchog1,757Anglesey and Bangor1427251400317001,198
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,812Anglesey and Bangor3317709700720001,918
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,500Gwynedd2013242100477001,023
GwyneddOgwen1,609Anglesey and Bangor1443921600545001,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,630Gwynedd1165151100469001,111
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,168Gwynedd129247140040600796
GwyneddPentir1,680Anglesey and Bangor2413774300486001,147
GwyneddPenygroes1,227Gwynedd125301110039900836
GwyneddSeiont2,035Gwynedd2466413100470001,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,283Gwynedd162392110031000875
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,510Anglesey and Bangor1734591700381001,030
GwyneddWaunfawr1,130Gwynedd139244140037300770
GwyneddY Felinheli1,545Anglesey and Bangor2103161000517001,053
 Total41,367 4,61511,4256490011,5200028,209

The full details of these calculations are given on the Arfon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Clwyd West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Conwy and Colwyn491802140044001,351
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Conwy and Colwyn5164111300222001,162
ConwyColwyn3,623Conwy and Colwyn1,1301,03912200237002,528
ConwyEirias2,807Conwy and Colwyn85382411800164001,959
ConwyGele3,638Conwy and Colwyn1,2699313400304002,538
ConwyGlyn3,412Conwy and Colwyn7461,2205800357002,381
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Conwy and Colwyn1,8321,3474300133003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Conwy and Colwyn39434752005000843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Conwy and Colwyn2,3741,4116900320004,174
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Gwynedd34328180016200794
ConwyLlansannan1,480Gwynedd4413741100207001,033
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Conwy and Colwyn633763210090001,507
ConwyMochdre1,520Conwy and Colwyn346640160059001,061
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Conwy and Colwyn1,097676790086001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Conwy and Colwyn1,9221,31217000252003,656
ConwyTowyn1,880Conwy and Colwyn780472160045001,313
ConwyUwchaled1,098Gwynedd38929510007100765
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire398325140017900916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire825381230099001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5272108005100796
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire6444702100113001,248
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4483601200204001,024
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire1,1431,21416300468002,988
 Total58,262 19,54116,1051,095003,9170040,658

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dwyfor Meirionnydd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dwyfor MeirionnyddTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron690Gwynedd13780108023400469
GwyneddAberdovey921Gwynedd2221301916023800625
GwyneddAbererch981Gwynedd2211581916025400668
GwyneddAbermaw1,848Gwynedd25845335220486001,254
GwyneddAbersoch575Gwynedd1295287019500391
GwyneddBala1,447Gwynedd2202053119050800983
GwyneddBotwnnog714Gwynedd1468998023200484
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,385Gwynedd1802213321048500940
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,066Gwynedd2121031513038100724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel702Gwynedd1521001711019700477
GwyneddClynnog729Gwynedd162971310021200494
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy988Gwynedd2201462613026600671
GwyneddCriccieth1,276Gwynedd3301802720031000867
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen813Gwynedd1021352012028200551
GwyneddDolbenmaen887Gwynedd2011156511021000602
GwyneddDolgellau North887Gwynedd1601102212029900603
GwyneddDolgellau South1,081Gwynedd1801512314036600734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,117Gwynedd2571732419028500758
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan909Gwynedd2141241612025200618
GwyneddHarlech1,467Gwynedd2681723219050600997
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,230Gwynedd2592112520032100836
GwyneddLlanbedr794Gwynedd167831411026400539
GwyneddLlanbedrog721Gwynedd165821010022300490
GwyneddLlandderfel1,083Gwynedd2201121212038000736
GwyneddLlanengan887Gwynedd2181011312025800602
GwyneddLlangelynin1,449Gwynedd3412182723037300982
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn644Gwynedd1197098023200438
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,533Gwynedd29916624180533001,040
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn913Gwynedd177931711032100619
GwyneddNefyn1,004Gwynedd1991521914029700681
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,887Gwynedd31223544230667001,281
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,300Gwynedd2331993419039900884
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,265Gwynedd2681242116042900858
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog914Gwynedd1811362313026700620
GwyneddPwllheli North1,598Gwynedd26024837200520001,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,375Gwynedd2622082519041900933
GwyneddTeigl1,373Gwynedd2101952819047900931
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,144Gwynedd2641712119030300778
GwyneddTudweiliog714Gwynedd16686108021400484
GwyneddTywyn2,388Gwynedd54739058380589001,622
 Total44,699 8,8386,274935616013,6860030,349

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dwyfor Meirionnydd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Gwynedd

The new seat of Gwynedd is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Gwynedd
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Aberconwy323244110012500703
ConwyCaerhun1,599Aberconwy6403521400131001,137
ConwyCrwst1,706Aberconwy4704905800195001,213
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Aberconwy387298110017000866
ConwyGower960Aberconwy242294120013500683
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Clwyd West34328180016200794
ConwyLlansannan1,480Clwyd West4413741100207001,033
ConwyTrefriw996Aberconwy283282150012800708
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Aberconwy367283120017900841
ConwyUwchaled1,098Clwyd West38929510007100765
GwyneddAberdaron690Dwyfor Meirionnydd13780108023400469
GwyneddAberdovey921Dwyfor Meirionnydd2221301916023800625
GwyneddAbererch981Dwyfor Meirionnydd2211581916025400668
GwyneddAbermaw1,848Dwyfor Meirionnydd25845335220486001,254
GwyneddAbersoch575Dwyfor Meirionnydd1295287019500391
GwyneddBala1,447Dwyfor Meirionnydd2202053119050800983
GwyneddBethel972Arfon13131850020800662
GwyneddBontnewydd785Arfon9516790026500536
GwyneddBotwnnog714Dwyfor Meirionnydd1468998023200484
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,385Dwyfor Meirionnydd1802213321048500940
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,066Dwyfor Meirionnydd2121031513038100724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel702Dwyfor Meirionnydd1521001711019700477
GwyneddCadnant1,407Arfon108450180038400960
GwyneddClynnog729Dwyfor Meirionnydd162971310021200494
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy988Dwyfor Meirionnydd2201462613026600671
GwyneddCriccieth1,276Dwyfor Meirionnydd3301802720031000867
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo675Arfon8525490011200460
GwyneddDeiniolen1,316Arfon132366110038900898
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen813Dwyfor Meirionnydd1021352012028200551
GwyneddDolbenmaen887Dwyfor Meirionnydd2011156511021000602
GwyneddDolgellau North887Dwyfor Meirionnydd1601102212029900603
GwyneddDolgellau South1,081Dwyfor Meirionnydd1801512314036600734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,117Dwyfor Meirionnydd2571732419028500758
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan909Dwyfor Meirionnydd2141241612025200618
GwyneddGroeslon1,178Arfon181327120028200802
GwyneddHarlech1,467Dwyfor Meirionnydd2681723219050600997
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,230Dwyfor Meirionnydd2592112520032100836
GwyneddLlanbedr794Dwyfor Meirionnydd167831411026400539
GwyneddLlanbedrog721Dwyfor Meirionnydd165821010022300490
GwyneddLlanberis1,392Arfon185409240033200950
GwyneddLlandderfel1,083Dwyfor Meirionnydd2201121212038000736
GwyneddLlanengan887Dwyfor Meirionnydd2181011312025800602
GwyneddLlangelynin1,449Dwyfor Meirionnydd3412182723037300982
GwyneddLlanllyfni863Arfon8321660028400589
GwyneddLlanrug1,314Arfon150289150044200896
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn644Dwyfor Meirionnydd1197098023200438
GwyneddLlanwnda1,381Arfon195325150040600941
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,533Dwyfor Meirionnydd29916624180533001,040
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,500Arfon2013242100477001,023
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn913Dwyfor Meirionnydd177931711032100619
GwyneddNefyn1,004Dwyfor Meirionnydd1991521914029700681
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,630Arfon1165151100469001,111
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,168Arfon129247140040600796
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,887Dwyfor Meirionnydd31223544230667001,281
GwyneddPenygroes1,227Arfon125301110039900836
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,300Dwyfor Meirionnydd2331993419039900884
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,265Dwyfor Meirionnydd2681242116042900858
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog914Dwyfor Meirionnydd1811362313026700620
GwyneddPwllheli North1,598Dwyfor Meirionnydd26024837200520001,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,375Dwyfor Meirionnydd2622082519041900933
GwyneddSeiont2,035Arfon2466413100470001,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,283Arfon162392110031000875
GwyneddTeigl1,373Dwyfor Meirionnydd2101952819047900931
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,144Dwyfor Meirionnydd2641712119030300778
GwyneddTudweiliog714Dwyfor Meirionnydd16686108021400484
GwyneddTywyn2,388Dwyfor Meirionnydd54739058380589001,622
GwyneddWaunfawr1,130Arfon139244140037300770
 Total78,324 15,18615,2521,334616021,1970053,585

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Gwynedd. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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