Hampshire North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hampshire North East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ranil Jayawardena  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 75,498
Turnout: 74.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,10962.1%
LAB10,42118.4%
LIB8,23814.6%
Green1,4762.6%
UKIP9251.6%
OTH3300.6%
CON Majority24,68843.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Hampshire North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Hampshire North East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education49%43%39%
Good Job64%56%51%
High SEC68%57%51%
Average Age50.049.248.5
ABC1 Class70%60%53%

Hampshire North East ranks #423 for "Leave", #128 for "Right" and #344 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hampshire North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hampshire North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Hampshire North East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aldershot

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aldershot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AldershotTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RushmoorAldershot Park5,223Aldershot1,6301,367172140460003,355
RushmoorCherrywood6,305Aldershot1,6421,836350163610004,052
RushmoorCove and Southwood5,483Aldershot2,1669291801381090003,522
RushmoorEmpress4,146Aldershot1,66562123654880002,664
RushmoorFernhill5,405Aldershot2,062915255143970003,472
RushmoorKnellwood5,464Aldershot2,2628251811331080003,509
RushmoorManor Park6,222Aldershot2,1201,457206157580003,998
RushmoorNorth Town4,993Aldershot1,4151,467158128400003,208
RushmoorRowhill5,032Aldershot1,7831,0221791381100003,232
RushmoorSt John's5,206Aldershot2,1048411671311010003,344
RushmoorSt Mark's5,150Aldershot1,88384242361980003,307
RushmoorWellington5,127Aldershot1,7611,31612962260003,294
RushmoorWest Heath5,016Aldershot1,756927308148830003,222
HartBlackwater and Hawley5,619Hampshire North East2,029847532154480003,610
HartYateley East1,813Hampshire North East67726416146160001,164
 Total76,204 26,95515,4763,6371,7961,08900048,953

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aldershot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampshire East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HampshireAlton Amery1,909Hampshire North East7433163290300091,427
East HampshireAlton Ashdell1,907Hampshire North East88425324003300141,424
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke2,285Hampshire North East82849833403600111,707
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2,337Hampshire North East911394271012100491,746
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2,338Hampshire North East94733341604000111,747
East HampshireAlton Wooteys1,830Hampshire North East69936526303000111,368
East HampshireBinsted and Bentley2,312Hampshire East1,39914713703100141,728
East HampshireBramshott and Liphook6,608Hampshire East3,008819943010400644,938
East HampshireDownland1,863Hampshire East1,13211510802500121,392
East HampshireEast Meon1,827Hampshire East9072191540760081,364
East HampshireFour Marks and Medstead4,702Hampshire East2,65645630206400353,513
East HampshireFroxfield and Steep2,182Hampshire East1,3161441300330081,631
East HampshireGrayshott1,884Hampshire East1,0071602050260091,407
East HampshireHeadley4,345Hampshire East2,25942747706100223,246
East HampshireHolybourne and Froyle2,235Hampshire North East1,2431751550880091,670
East HampshireLindford2,195Hampshire East1,10825123902900131,640
East HampshireLiss4,033Hampshire East1,875553334018400683,014
East HampshirePetersfield Bell Hill1,924Hampshire East7993272150880091,438
East HampshirePetersfield Causeway2,129Hampshire East87137024809100101,590
East HampshirePetersfield Heath1,788Hampshire East81023919208100141,336
East HampshirePetersfield Rother1,763Hampshire East8602221510780071,318
East HampshirePetersfield St Marys2,155Hampshire East1,06226917309700101,611
East HampshirePetersfield St Peters1,900Hampshire East74332125209000141,420
East HampshireRopley and Tisted1,727Hampshire East1,044116990250071,291
East HampshireSelborne1,757Hampshire East85016124402500341,314
East HampshireThe Hangers and Forest1,912Hampshire East1,02121712802600371,429
East HampshireWhitehill Chase1,917Hampshire East74225539603000101,433
East HampshireWhitehill Deadwater2,175Hampshire East85941630603200121,625
East HampshireWhitehill Hogmoor1,815Hampshire East83122526202700101,355
East HampshireWhitehill Pinewood2,571Hampshire East98438850103200151,920
East HampshireWhitehill Walldown1,826Hampshire East86425819802800171,365
 Total74,151 35,2629,4098,40201,7610057355,407

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneBramley and Sherfield4,557Hampshire North West2,375620300688500293,477
Basingstoke and DeanePamber and Silchester3,524Hampshire North West1,925455196446000122,692
Basingstoke and DeaneSherborne St John1,612Hampshire North West9061741099250071,230
Basingstoke and DeaneUpton Grey and The Candovers2,186Hampshire North East1,3122159911270051,669
HartCrookham East6,117Aldershot3,08086742311113600534,670
HartCrookham West and Ewshot6,441Aldershot3,31988842210313600494,917
HartFleet Central6,689Hampshire North East3,2391,05348011615300675,108
HartFleet East5,948Hampshire North East2,8838156337612100124,540
HartFleet West6,364Hampshire North East3,3467954688712300394,858
HartHartley Wintney6,609Hampshire North East3,3487157737811900125,045
HartHook6,555Hampshire North East3,2819685368612100135,005
HartOdiham7,215Hampshire North East3,8487406618712900435,508
HartYateley East4,779Hampshire North East1,970716777769900113,649
HartYateley West6,880Hampshire North East2,9219591,11010814200145,254
 Total75,476 37,7539,9806,9871,0601,4760036657,622

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hampshire North East

The new seat of Hampshire North East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Hampshire North East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Basingstoke and DeaneUpton Grey and The Candovers2,186Hampshire North East1,3122159911270051,669
East HampshireAlton Amery1,909Hampshire East7433163290300091,427
East HampshireAlton Ashdell1,907Hampshire East88425324003300141,424
East HampshireAlton Eastbrooke2,285Hampshire East82849833403600111,707
East HampshireAlton Westbrooke2,337Hampshire East911394271012100491,746
East HampshireAlton Whitedown2,338Hampshire East94733341604000111,747
East HampshireAlton Wooteys1,830Hampshire East69936526303000111,368
East HampshireHolybourne and Froyle2,235Hampshire East1,2431751550880091,670
HartBlackwater and Hawley5,619Aldershot2,029847532154480003,610
HartFleet Central6,689Hampshire North East3,2391,05348011615300675,108
HartFleet East5,948Hampshire North East2,8838156337612100124,540
HartFleet West6,364Hampshire North East3,3467954688712300394,858
HartHartley Wintney6,609Hampshire North East3,3487157737811900125,045
HartHook6,555Hampshire North East3,2819685368612100135,005
HartOdiham7,215Hampshire North East3,8487406618712900435,508
HartYateley East1,813Aldershot67726416146160001,164
HartYateley East4,779Hampshire North East1,970716777769900113,649
HartYateley West6,880Hampshire North East2,9219591,11010814200145,254
 Total75,498 35,10910,4218,2389251,4760033056,499

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hampshire North East.


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