Harlow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Harlow: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Robert Halfon  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 73,437
Turnout: 64.2%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
CON30,26264.2%
LAB13,85829.4%
LIB2,8446.0%
Green1250.3%
OTH360.1%
CON Majority16,40434.8%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Harlow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Harlow constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right9° Right
National Position16° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %67%56%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born89%89%87%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job48%52%51%
High SEC47%53%51%
Average Age48.549.348.3
ABC1 Class49%55%54%

Harlow ranks #40 for "Leave", #234 for "Right", #32 for "National" and #85 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harlow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Harlow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Harlow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Brentwood and Ongar

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brentwood and Ongar, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brentwood and OngarTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,201Brentwood and Ongar2,258664569012600413,658
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,689Brentwood and Ongar1,981769405010900353,299
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,732Brentwood and Ongar2,465744644013900414,033
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,788Brentwood and Ongar2,50034739809200313,368
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon3,000Brentwood and Ongar1,56021725305800222,110
BrentwoodHutton Central3,084Brentwood and Ongar1,51925031106700232,170
BrentwoodHutton East2,974Brentwood and Ongar1,45927826906600212,093
BrentwoodHutton North3,430Brentwood and Ongar1,64536030607800252,414
BrentwoodHutton South3,123Brentwood and Ongar1,58023229506700222,196
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,827Brentwood and Ongar2,396403457010700333,396
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,818Brentwood and Ongar2,296477475010700353,390
BrentwoodShenfield4,397Brentwood and Ongar2,052347562010400293,094
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,561Brentwood and Ongar79912113303300121,098
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,101Brentwood and Ongar1,63621625005800212,181
BrentwoodWarley4,831Brentwood and Ongar2,142553551011800353,399
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,275Brentwood and Ongar1,61026132508300252,304
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,825Brentwood and Ongar95012715304200121,284
Epping ForestLambourne1,627Brentwood and Ongar86911911503000111,144
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,621Harlow1,85029828808700252,548
Epping ForestPassingford1,841Brentwood and Ongar99110815503200101,296
Epping ForestShelley1,772Brentwood and Ongar84923611303600131,247
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village170Harlow87141403001119
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,568Harlow81310014503500101,103
 Total75,255 36,3077,2417,18601,6770053352,944

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brentwood and Ongar seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harlow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harlow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HarlowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestLower Nazeing2,857Harlow1,399307114000001,820
Epping ForestLower Sheering1,482Harlow6632166500000944
Epping ForestRoydon1,629Harlow77818871000001,037
HarlowBush Fair5,702Harlow2,1761,273182000003,631
HarlowChurch Langley6,564Harlow2,993907280000004,180
HarlowGreat Parndon4,831Harlow2,038872166000003,076
HarlowHarlow Common5,446Harlow2,1681,122178000003,468
HarlowLittle Parndon and Hare Street5,878Harlow2,0781,473192000003,743
HarlowMark Hall5,303Harlow1,9841,216177000003,377
HarlowNetteswell5,487Harlow1,9961,321177000003,494
HarlowOld Harlow5,142Harlow2,288769218000003,275
HarlowStaple Tye5,337Harlow2,0211,207171000003,399
HarlowSumners and Kingsmoor5,255Harlow2,1441,035168000003,347
HarlowToddbrook5,566Harlow2,0331,339173000003,545
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1,599Harlow75320165000001,019
 Total68,078 27,51213,4462,3970000043,355

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harlow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Harlow

The new seat of Harlow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Harlow
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village170Brentwood and Ongar87141403001119
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1,599Harlow75320165000001,019
Epping ForestLower Nazeing2,857Harlow1,399307114000001,820
Epping ForestLower Sheering1,482Harlow6632166500000944
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,568Brentwood and Ongar81310014503500101,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,621Brentwood and Ongar1,85029828808700252,548
Epping ForestRoydon1,629Harlow77818871000001,037
HarlowBush Fair5,702Harlow2,1761,273182000003,631
HarlowChurch Langley6,564Harlow2,993907280000004,180
HarlowGreat Parndon4,831Harlow2,038872166000003,076
HarlowHarlow Common5,446Harlow2,1681,122178000003,468
HarlowLittle Parndon and Hare Street5,878Harlow2,0781,473192000003,743
HarlowMark Hall5,303Harlow1,9841,216177000003,377
HarlowNetteswell5,487Harlow1,9961,321177000003,494
HarlowOld Harlow5,142Harlow2,288769218000003,275
HarlowStaple Tye5,337Harlow2,0211,207171000003,399
HarlowSumners and Kingsmoor5,255Harlow2,1441,035168000003,347
HarlowToddbrook5,566Harlow2,0331,339173000003,545
 Total73,437 30,26213,8582,8440125003647,125

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Harlow. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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