Hereford and South Herefordshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jesse Norman  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 80,658
Turnout: 71.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,37654.5%
LAB13,41423.3%
MIN5,5579.7%
LIB4,3777.6%
Green1,5352.7%
UKIP1,1562.0%
OTH1530.3%
CON Majority17,96231.2%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Hereford and South Herefordshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Hereford and South Herefordshire constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born93%89%88%
Good Education38%35%39%
Good Job45%48%51%
High SEC48%46%51%
Average Age50.648.748.5
ABC1 Class47%49%53%

Hereford and South Herefordshire ranks #139 for "Leave", #65 for "Right" and #65 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hereford and South Herefordshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Hereford and South Herefordshire

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hereford and South HerefordshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,634Hereford and South Herefordshire9444441484041025401,871
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,756Hereford and South Herefordshire1,043456914140028601,957
HerefordshireBirch2,335Hereford and South Herefordshire1,081278482430019701,658
HerefordshireBobblestock2,493Hereford and South Herefordshire8644461429337018801,770
HerefordshireCentral2,443Hereford and South Herefordshire7824701893245021701,735
HerefordshireCollege2,808Hereford and South Herefordshire9675591553743023301,994
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,679Hereford and South Herefordshire1,174376733335021101,902
HerefordshireEign Hill2,568Hereford and South Herefordshire9234211673743023201,823
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,240Hereford and South Herefordshire973276567332018001,590
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,389Hereford and South Herefordshire1,154268612483010601,696
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,855Hereford and South Herefordshire9725161903950026102,028
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton3,071Hereford and South Herefordshire86671217445123026102,181
HerefordshireHolmer1,137Hereford and South Herefordshire46616235171501120807
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,387Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0782941092631015801,696
HerefordshireKings Acre2,580Hereford and South Herefordshire8834721844036021901,834
HerefordshireLlangarron2,461Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1433091032529013801,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm3,185Hereford and South Herefordshire9077901724747029902,262
HerefordshirePenyard2,372Hereford and South Herefordshire1,168260492328015601,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,962Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0146791454441018002,103
HerefordshireRoss East2,593Hereford and South Herefordshire9574231458940018801,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,523Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0703851713234010001,792
HerefordshireRoss West2,588Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0834141653438010301,837
HerefordshireSaxon Gate3,199Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1296321964541022802,271
HerefordshireStoney Street2,132Hereford and South Herefordshire835311482787020701,515
HerefordshireTupsley2,313Hereford and South Herefordshire8643641193336022601,642
HerefordshireWhitecross2,531Hereford and South Herefordshire8294541799541020001,798
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,182Hereford and South Herefordshire6684621563237019401,549
HerefordshireWormside2,672Hereford and South Herefordshire1,167359862933022301,897
 Total71,088 27,00411,9923,5561,1561,21605,557050,481

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hereford and South Herefordshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,876Ludlow and Leominster1,51330818607700452,129
HerefordshireBackbury2,302Hereford and South Herefordshire1,08531719307200381,705
HerefordshireBircher2,857Ludlow and Leominster1,32839225109500502,116
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,408Malvern and Ledbury1,214231149016700231,784
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,578Malvern and Ledbury1,19138021708200401,910
HerefordshireBromyard West2,454Malvern and Ledbury1,06943120907200351,816
HerefordshireCastle2,366Ludlow and Leominster1,17028718407100411,753
HerefordshireCredenhill2,741Hereford and South Herefordshire1,23942623808300442,030
HerefordshireHagley3,005Hereford and South Herefordshire1,38544425709200472,225
HerefordshireHampton2,674Malvern and Ledbury1,39129918207200361,980
HerefordshireHolmer1,120Hereford and South Herefordshire5021721020350018829
HerefordshireHope End2,769Malvern and Ledbury1,42630620108000382,051
HerefordshireKington2,611Ludlow and Leominster97934550807900211,932
HerefordshireLedbury North2,463Malvern and Ledbury1,07939722907900401,824
HerefordshireLedbury South2,551Malvern and Ledbury1,07936234207300341,890
HerefordshireLedbury West2,918Malvern and Ledbury1,29248325508800422,160
HerefordshireLeominster East2,871Ludlow and Leominster1,074507237028600222,126
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,173Ludlow and Leominster1,424457220022800212,350
HerefordshireLeominster South2,714Ludlow and Leominster988496234025300392,010
HerefordshireLeominster West2,171Ludlow and Leominster795332274019000161,607
HerefordshireMortimer2,488Ludlow and Leominster1,18133319907800521,843
HerefordshireOld Gore2,466Malvern and Ledbury1,27827717006900321,826
HerefordshireQueenswood2,708Ludlow and Leominster1,24440722408300462,004
HerefordshireStoney Street402Hereford and South Herefordshire1616331037006298
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,611Ludlow and Leominster1,23837920207600391,934
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,700Malvern and Ledbury1,40830817907100331,999
HerefordshireWeobley2,754Ludlow and Leominster1,36135620108100422,041
 Total67,751 31,0949,4955,87402,7690094050,172

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

The new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireAylestone Hill2,634Hereford and South Herefordshire9444441484041025401,871
HerefordshireBackbury2,302Herefordshire North1,08531719307200381,705
HerefordshireBelmont Rural2,756Hereford and South Herefordshire1,043456914140028601,957
HerefordshireBirch2,335Hereford and South Herefordshire1,081278482430019701,658
HerefordshireBobblestock2,493Hereford and South Herefordshire8644461429337018801,770
HerefordshireCentral2,443Hereford and South Herefordshire7824701893245021701,735
HerefordshireCollege2,808Hereford and South Herefordshire9675591553743023301,994
HerefordshireCredenhill2,741Herefordshire North1,23942623808300442,030
HerefordshireDinedor Hill2,679Hereford and South Herefordshire1,174376733335021101,902
HerefordshireEign Hill2,568Hereford and South Herefordshire9234211673743023201,823
HerefordshireGolden Valley North2,240Hereford and South Herefordshire973276567332018001,590
HerefordshireGolden Valley South2,389Hereford and South Herefordshire1,154268612483010601,696
HerefordshireGreyfriars2,855Hereford and South Herefordshire9725161903950026102,028
HerefordshireHagley3,005Herefordshire North1,38544425709200472,225
HerefordshireHinton and Hunderton3,071Hereford and South Herefordshire86671217445123026102,181
HerefordshireHolmer1,137Hereford and South Herefordshire46616235171501120807
HerefordshireHolmer1,120Herefordshire North5021721020350018829
HerefordshireKerne Bridge2,387Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0782941092631015801,696
HerefordshireKings Acre2,580Hereford and South Herefordshire8834721844036021901,834
HerefordshireLlangarron2,461Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1433091032529013801,747
HerefordshireNewton Farm3,185Hereford and South Herefordshire9077901724747029902,262
HerefordshirePenyard2,372Hereford and South Herefordshire1,168260492328015601,684
HerefordshireRed Hill2,962Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0146791454441018002,103
HerefordshireRoss East2,593Hereford and South Herefordshire9574231458940018801,842
HerefordshireRoss North2,523Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0703851713234010001,792
HerefordshireRoss West2,588Hereford and South Herefordshire1,0834141653438010301,837
HerefordshireSaxon Gate3,199Hereford and South Herefordshire1,1296321964541022802,271
HerefordshireStoney Street2,132Hereford and South Herefordshire835311482787020701,515
HerefordshireStoney Street402Herefordshire North1616331037006298
HerefordshireTupsley2,313Hereford and South Herefordshire8643641193336022601,642
HerefordshireWhitecross2,531Hereford and South Herefordshire8294541799541020001,798
HerefordshireWidemarsh2,182Hereford and South Herefordshire6684621563237019401,549
HerefordshireWormside2,672Hereford and South Herefordshire1,167359862933022301,897
 Total80,658 31,37613,4144,3771,1561,53505,55715357,568

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Sep-2018 15:32)