Isle of Wight East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Isle of Wight East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 65,095
Turnout: 67.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON21,76749.7%
LAB10,38723.7%
Green7,72517.6%
LIB1,7273.9%
UKIP1,2062.8%
MIN9872.3%
CON Majority11,38026.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Isle of Wight East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Isle of Wight East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Left4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %63%52%52%
British Identity25%29%29%
Good Health40%49%48%
UK Born95%88%88%
Good Education34%43%39%
Good Job46%56%51%
High SEC47%57%51%
Average Age53.749.248.5
ABC1 Class46%60%53%

Isle of Wight East ranks #91 for "Leave", #392 for "Right" and #144 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Isle of Wight East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Isle of Wight East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Isle of Wight East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Isle of Wight

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Isle of Wight, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Isle of WightTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2,913Isle of Wight East1,135338395734904301,961
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,566Isle of Wight East930330375633004301,726
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,596Isle of Wight East1,99175080125709011003,765
Isle of WightCarisbrooke2,624Isle of Wight West1,043332562427803301,766
Isle of WightCentral Wight2,686Isle of Wight West1,066246304240501801,807
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2,200Isle of Wight West921273233520802001,480
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,312Isle of Wight West1,036600933241704902,227
Isle of WightCowes North2,466Isle of Wight West985282604326302601,659
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood3,040Isle of Wight West1,254345622831704102,047
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,805Isle of Wight West1,018367712735105301,887
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,128Isle of Wight East9824511886338203902,105
Isle of WightFreshwater North2,052Isle of Wight West816268274020302801,382
Isle of WightFreshwater South2,287Isle of Wight West789329424728604501,538
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,595Isle of Wight East863392426134204601,746
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,819Isle of Wight East9113991575533703801,897
Isle of WightLake North2,992Isle of Wight East822782455729001602,012
Isle of WightLake South2,724Isle of Wight East935439416232003701,834
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,061Isle of Wight East7342361154423402201,385
Isle of WightNewport Central3,136Isle of Wight West1,008599635634104302,110
Isle of WightNewport East2,543Isle of Wight West577773434724802301,711
Isle of WightNewport North2,626Isle of Wight West893453564828603001,766
Isle of WightNewport South3,159Isle of Wight West1,172475693033704202,125
Isle of WightNewport West2,619Isle of Wight West962359595230003001,762
Isle of WightParkhurst3,052Isle of Wight West9684361866736003502,052
Isle of WightRyde East2,928Isle of Wight East8794631883234606201,970
Isle of WightRyde North East2,739Isle of Wight East859519535331704201,843
Isle of WightRyde North West2,934Isle of Wight East989464526236504301,975
Isle of WightRyde South3,556Isle of Wight East886896657242704602,392
Isle of WightRyde West3,127Isle of Wight East9335301843237405102,104
Isle of WightSandown North2,512Isle of Wight East773463425731803701,690
Isle of WightSandown South3,280Isle of Wight East1,184498516436804202,207
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,840Isle of Wight East1,092396433131003901,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,897Isle of Wight East1,140394423230204101,951
Isle of WightTotland2,324Isle of Wight West833308325029005001,563
Isle of WightVentnor East2,467Isle of Wight East783402515532604301,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,357Isle of Wight East792388304928104601,586
Isle of WightWest Wight2,672Isle of Wight West1,081288404830004001,797
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,265Isle of Wight East1,168507603136706302,196
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,799Isle of Wight East9863501225633103801,883
 Total110,698 38,18917,1202,7391,92212,91501,593074,478

The full details of these calculations are given on the Isle of Wight seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Isle of Wight East

The new seat of Isle of Wight East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Isle of Wight East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2,913Isle of Wight1,135338395734904301,961
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,566Isle of Wight930330375633004301,726
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,596Isle of Wight1,99175080125709011003,765
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,128Isle of Wight9824511886338203902,105
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,595Isle of Wight863392426134204601,746
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,819Isle of Wight9113991575533703801,897
Isle of WightLake North2,992Isle of Wight822782455729001602,012
Isle of WightLake South2,724Isle of Wight935439416232003701,834
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,061Isle of Wight7342361154423402201,385
Isle of WightRyde East2,928Isle of Wight8794631883234606201,970
Isle of WightRyde North East2,739Isle of Wight859519535331704201,843
Isle of WightRyde North West2,934Isle of Wight989464526236504301,975
Isle of WightRyde South3,556Isle of Wight886896657242704602,392
Isle of WightRyde West3,127Isle of Wight9335301843237405102,104
Isle of WightSandown North2,512Isle of Wight773463425731803701,690
Isle of WightSandown South3,280Isle of Wight1,184498516436804202,207
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,840Isle of Wight1,092396433131003901,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,897Isle of Wight1,140394423230204101,951
Isle of WightVentnor East2,467Isle of Wight783402515532604301,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,357Isle of Wight792388304928104601,586
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,265Isle of Wight1,168507603136706302,196
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,799Isle of Wight9863501225633103801,883
 Total65,095 21,76710,3871,7271,2067,7250987043,799

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Isle of Wight East.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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