Lancashire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lancashire North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ben Wallace  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 74,264
Turnout: 70.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,43562.0%
LAB17,18132.8%
LIB1,7443.3%
Green8251.6%
UKIP1330.3%
CON Majority15,25429.2%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Lancashire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lancashire North constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position15° Right4° Left
National Position7° Nat1° Nat
EU Leave %56%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education47%37%39%
Good Job53%49%51%
High SEC58%48%51%
Average Age51.048.648.5
ABC1 Class57%50%53%

Lancashire North ranks #200 for "Leave", #81 for "Right" and #135 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lancashire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lancashire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lancashire North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Lancaster and Fleetwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lancaster and FleetwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk5,648Lancaster and Morecambe1,1382,49712101120003,868
LancasterCastle3,810Lancaster and Morecambe8761,5211250870002,609
LancasterEllel3,970Lancashire North1,4241,207330540002,718
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt5,588Lancaster and Morecambe1,2932,2731650960003,827
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,441Lancashire North1,274952890400002,355
LancasterMarsh3,576Lancaster and Morecambe7841,494980730002,449
LancasterScotforth East3,360Lancaster and Morecambe8971,2511080450002,301
LancasterScotforth West5,948Lancaster and Morecambe1,4722,33316001080004,073
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural3,983Lancashire North1,2341,3371030520002,726
WyreMount3,654Blackpool North and Fleetwood9141,544270170002,502
WyrePark3,905Blackpool North and Fleetwood9721,661230180002,674
WyrePharos4,050Blackpool North and Fleetwood9031,813320250002,773
WyrePilling1,779Lancashire North7604466060001,218
WyrePreesall4,405Lancashire North1,7551,225190180003,017
WyreRossall4,912Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,3631,951260230003,363
WyreWarren3,592Blackpool North and Fleetwood9531,460300170002,460
WyreWyresdale1,551Lancashire North6703787070001,062
 Total67,172 18,68225,3431,172079800045,995

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lancaster and Fleetwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Morecambe and Lunesdale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Morecambe and LunesdaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBare5,140Lancaster and Morecambe1,8261,288208140490003,511
LancasterBolton and Slyne5,576Lancaster and Morecambe2,4891,04916962400003,809
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead4,631Lancashire North1,6991,27210753330003,164
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton1,741Lancashire North6694374619180001,189
LancasterHarbour5,933Lancaster and Morecambe1,5432,201108150500004,052
LancasterHeysham Central3,425Lancaster and Morecambe1,0201,1986545130002,341
LancasterHeysham North3,637Lancaster and Morecambe9741,3007998330002,484
LancasterHeysham South4,942Lancaster and Morecambe1,6691,47095127140003,375
LancasterKellet1,611Lancashire North7922602314100001,099
LancasterOverton1,756Lancaster and Morecambe7094203423130001,199
LancasterPoulton4,223Lancaster and Morecambe1,2071,43687117390002,886
LancasterSilverdale1,406Lancashire North554281991314000961
LancasterSkerton East5,037Lancaster and Morecambe1,1672,04412762400003,440
LancasterSkerton West5,347Lancaster and Morecambe1,2892,059135130390003,652
LancasterTorrisholme3,369Lancaster and Morecambe1,119900150103300002,302
LancasterUpper Lune Valley1,810Lancashire North8972892415110001,236
LancasterWarton1,555Lancashire North6723333016120001,063
LancasterWestgate5,700Lancaster and Morecambe1,4782,137112146210003,894
 Total66,839 21,77320,3741,6981,33347900045,657

The full details of these calculations are given on the Morecambe and Lunesdale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Preston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Preston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: PrestonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonAshton2,765Preston6578909443190001,703
PrestonBrookfield4,395Preston7211,74862152250002,708
PrestonDeepdale3,783Preston3181,9114336230002,331
PrestonFishwick3,510Preston4271,650344380002,162
PrestonIngol4,499Preston8331,559209160110002,772
PrestonLarches4,562Preston8711,63520276270002,811
PrestonMoor Park3,120Preston4491,2886098280001,923
PrestonPreston Rural East189Lancashire North6447330000117
PrestonRibbleton5,245Preston7072,25260182300003,231
PrestonRiversway3,778Preston6221,48774112330002,328
PrestonSt George's4,246Preston3262,1437549240002,617
PrestonSt Matthew's4,992Preston5262,33358146110003,074
PrestonTown Centre5,344Preston6762,4298258470003,292
PrestonTulketh4,573Preston8821,66880154330002,817
PrestonUniversity2,791Preston4101,1707037320001,719
 Total57,792 8,48924,2101,2061,34935100035,605

The full details of these calculations are given on the Preston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ribble Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,424Lancashire North707254260220001,009
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,115Lancashire North994412590320001,497
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,536Pendle and Ribble Valley1,224464680400001,796
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,115Lancashire North60314922016000790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,053Lancashire North49820725015000745
Ribble ValleyChipping1,068Lancashire North52519224015000756
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,167Pendle and Ribble Valley1,108332610330001,534
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,405Lancashire North964630700380001,702
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,090Lancashire North882507600320001,481
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,220Pendle and Ribble Valley6446772080410001,570
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,137Lancashire North53322728017000805
Ribble ValleyLangho1,781Pendle and Ribble Valley805376510280001,260
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,414Pendle and Ribble Valley7097202360440001,709
Ribble ValleyMellor2,228Pendle and Ribble Valley1,147333630350001,578
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,457Pendle and Ribble Valley7147212580460001,739
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,069Pendle and Ribble Valley1,035340580320001,465
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,267Lancashire North60823038021000897
Ribble ValleySabden1,152Pendle and Ribble Valley43132738019000815
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,305Pendle and Ribble Valley8605202120400001,632
Ribble ValleySalthill2,477Pendle and Ribble Valley9245522310460001,753
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,333Lancashire North1,208345640350001,652
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,163Pendle and Ribble Valley1,593499970500002,239
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,074Pendle and Ribble Valley1,044340540300001,468
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,048Pendle and Ribble Valley48521527015000742
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,732Ribble South1,1401,3371100560002,643
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,500Ribble South1,0701,2421090570002,478
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,498Pendle and Ribble Valley1,57666210601330002,477
South RibbleFarington East2,422Ribble South7807391590370001,715
South RibbleFarington West3,090Ribble South1,1607921880470002,187
South RibbleLostock Hall5,412Ribble South1,9181,6471810850003,831
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East236Ribble South107411108000167
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,183Pendle and Ribble Valley1,325788910500002,254
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,290Ribble South1,2319441070480002,330
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,509Ribble South1,3689541090520002,483
 Total77,970 31,92018,7153,24901,31500055,199

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wyre and Preston North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wyre and Preston NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley3,829Preston1,2881,1483190330002,788
PrestonCollege3,032Preston1,0559731300490002,207
PrestonGarrison5,479Preston1,9631,7232230780003,987
PrestonGreyfriars5,248Preston2,1031,3482960730003,820
PrestonPreston Rural East3,515Lancashire North1,667791750250002,558
PrestonPreston Rural North5,509Lancashire North2,6571,0083140310004,010
PrestonSharoe Green5,150Preston1,7411,6492720860003,748
WyreBourne2,008Blackpool North and Fleetwood678705480300001,461
WyreBreck3,126Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,364782800490002,275
WyreBrock with Catterall3,384Lancashire North1,673677670460002,463
WyreCalder1,785Lancashire North841387410300001,299
WyreCarleton3,733Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,5721,001900540002,717
WyreGarstang5,306Lancashire North2,4181,2321240880003,862
WyreGreat Eccleston3,198Lancashire North1,583649550410002,328
WyreHambleton and Stalmine3,488Lancashire North1,610820630460002,539
WyreHardhorn with High Cross4,921Fylde2,2891,1081140720003,583
WyreMarsh Mill2,319Blackpool North and Fleetwood911694520320001,689
WyreStanah3,850Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,664988950550002,802
WyreTithebarn3,440Fylde1,607753910540002,505
 Total72,320 30,68418,4362,549097200052,641

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wyre and Preston North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lancashire North

The new seat of Lancashire North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lancashire North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead4,631Morecambe and Lunesdale1,6991,27210753330003,164
LancasterEllel3,970Lancaster and Fleetwood1,4241,207330540002,718
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton1,741Morecambe and Lunesdale6694374619180001,189
LancasterKellet1,611Morecambe and Lunesdale7922602314100001,099
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,441Lancaster and Fleetwood1,274952890400002,355
LancasterSilverdale1,406Morecambe and Lunesdale554281991314000961
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural3,983Lancaster and Fleetwood1,2341,3371030520002,726
LancasterUpper Lune Valley1,810Morecambe and Lunesdale8972892415110001,236
LancasterWarton1,555Morecambe and Lunesdale6723333016120001,063
PrestonPreston Rural East189Preston6447330000117
PrestonPreston Rural East3,515Wyre and Preston North1,667791750250002,558
PrestonPreston Rural North5,509Wyre and Preston North2,6571,0083140310004,010
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,424Ribble Valley707254260220001,009
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,115Ribble Valley994412590320001,497
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,115Ribble Valley60314922016000790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,053Ribble Valley49820725015000745
Ribble ValleyChipping1,068Ribble Valley52519224015000756
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,405Ribble Valley964630700380001,702
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,090Ribble Valley882507600320001,481
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,137Ribble Valley53322728017000805
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,267Ribble Valley60823038021000897
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,333Ribble Valley1,208345640350001,652
WyreBrock with Catterall3,384Wyre and Preston North1,673677670460002,463
WyreCalder1,785Wyre and Preston North841387410300001,299
WyreGarstang5,306Wyre and Preston North2,4181,2321240880003,862
WyreGreat Eccleston3,198Wyre and Preston North1,583649550410002,328
WyreHambleton and Stalmine3,488Wyre and Preston North1,610820630460002,539
WyrePilling1,779Lancaster and Fleetwood7604466060001,218
WyrePreesall4,405Lancaster and Fleetwood1,7551,225190180003,017
WyreWyresdale1,551Lancaster and Fleetwood6703787070001,062
 Total74,264 32,43517,1811,74413382500052,318

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lancashire North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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