Lewes and West Wealden: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lewes and West Wealden: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Maria Caulfield  (CON)
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 81,342
Turnout: 75.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,00153.8%
LIB15,88225.9%
LAB10,68417.4%
UKIP1,0181.7%
Green7191.2%
CON Majority17,11927.9%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Lewes and West Wealden : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lewes and West Wealden constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right11° Right
National Position3° Nat3° Nat
EU Leave %50%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education43%43%39%
Good Job56%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age52.949.248.5
ABC1 Class60%60%53%

Lewes and West Wealden ranks #387 for "Leave", #298 for "Right" and #383 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lewes and West Wealden: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lewes and West Wealden been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lewes and West Wealden

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bexhill and Battle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bexhill and Battle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bexhill and BattleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RotherBattle Town4,119Bexhill and Battle1,75174550759580003,120
RotherCentral4,340Bexhill and Battle1,5501,319216139650003,289
RotherCollington3,375Bexhill and Battle1,5846071381141140002,557
RotherCrowhurst2,069Bexhill and Battle96636916051220001,568
RotherDarwell4,096Bexhill and Battle2,0156212381061220003,102
RotherEwhurst and Sedlescombe2,017Bexhill and Battle1,04627915028240001,527
RotherKewhurst3,640Bexhill and Battle1,821641143109430002,757
RotherOld Town3,056Bexhill and Battle1,167632318951040002,316
RotherRother Levels3,624Bexhill and Battle1,80056325392380002,746
RotherSackville3,484Bexhill and Battle1,513787158131490002,638
RotherSt Marks3,534Bexhill and Battle1,754619132130420002,677
RotherSt Michaels3,832Bexhill and Battle1,645886176145510002,903
RotherSt Stephens3,809Bexhill and Battle1,613848251124480002,884
RotherSalehurst3,601Bexhill and Battle1,67458437750420002,727
RotherSidley4,520Bexhill and Battle1,5731,517148135520003,425
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham3,630Bexhill and Battle1,921470213461000002,750
WealdenCross in Hand / Five Ashes1,927Bexhill and Battle1,1552026022200001,459
WealdenHeathfield East1,928Bexhill and Battle1,1592105122190001,461
WealdenHeathfield North and Central6,327Bexhill and Battle3,424868226901850004,793
WealdenHerstmonceux2,243Bexhill and Battle1,1993288460280001,699
WealdenNinfield and Hooe with Wartling1,933Bexhill and Battle1,1172386126220001,464
WealdenPevensey and Westham7,405Bexhill and Battle3,4071,3564232301920005,608
WealdenPolegate North3Lewes and West Wealden110000002
 Total78,512 36,85514,6904,4832,0041,44000059,472

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bexhill and Battle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lewes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lewes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LewesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LewesBarcombe and Hamsey1,712Lewes and West Wealden69973537000001,309
LewesChailey and Wivelsfield4,113Lewes and West Wealden1,997147998000003,142
LewesDitchling and Westmeston1,923Lewes and West Wealden1,02956383000001,468
LewesKingston1,679Lewes and West Wealden64853581000001,282
LewesLewes Bridge3,813Lewes and West Wealden1,0796001,235000002,914
LewesLewes Castle3,906Lewes and West Wealden1,0856601,239000002,984
LewesLewes Priory6,212Lewes and West Wealden2,0149221,809000004,745
LewesNewhaven Denton and Meeching6,596Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven2,0108422,185000005,037
LewesNewhaven Valley3,241Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven9493321,194000002,475
LewesNewick1,934Lewes and West Wealden96159457000001,477
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer5,182Lewes and West Wealden2,0202851,653000003,958
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John (Without)1,839Lewes and West Wealden74661598000001,405
LewesSeaford Central3,897Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven1,3953771,205000002,977
LewesSeaford East3,789Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven1,5382401,116000002,894
LewesSeaford North4,195Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven1,5443421,318000003,204
LewesSeaford South3,391Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven1,3611801,049000002,590
LewesSeaford West3,693Brighton Kemptown and Seahaven1,6351561,030000002,821
WealdenAlfriston1,852Lewes and West Wealden82460531000001,415
WealdenEast Dean1,821Lewes and West Wealden90352436000001,391
WealdenPolegate North4,197Lewes and West Wealden1,6193881,199000003,206
WealdenPolegate South1,963Lewes and West Wealden763177559000001,499
 Total70,948 26,8196,06221,3120000054,193

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lewes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wealden

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wealden, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WealdenTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WealdenBuxted and Maresfield4,391Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,40854918255660003,260
WealdenChiddingly and East Hoathly2,608Lewes and West Wealden1,23846811278410001,937
WealdenCrowborough East4,287Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,91272741957690003,184
WealdenCrowborough Jarvis Brook2,136Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough78545227335410001,586
WealdenCrowborough North4,620Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,27976824368730003,431
WealdenCrowborough St Johns1,822Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,0192097623260001,353
WealdenCrowborough West3,985Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8166002101391950002,960
WealdenDanehill / Fletching / Nutley4,309Lewes and West Wealden2,128591292125640003,200
WealdenForest Row4,200Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,884627318512390003,119
WealdenFramfield2,207Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1513418926310001,638
WealdenFrant / Withyham4,243Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,0395841931282070003,151
WealdenHailsham Central and North4,518Lewes and West Wealden1,84078658470760003,356
WealdenHailsham East2,320Lewes and West Wealden1,02850511933380001,723
WealdenHailsham South and West6,820Lewes and West Wealden2,9431,3673872501180005,065
WealdenHartfield2,131Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,02627622424320001,582
WealdenHellingly4,832Lewes and West Wealden1,97581564273830003,588
WealdenHoram2,139Lewes and West Wealden1,13029010728340001,589
WealdenMayfield2,079Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,0563309726340001,543
WealdenRotherfield1,936Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,0522409023310001,436
WealdenUckfield Central2,401Lewes and West Wealden98240731736410001,783
WealdenUckfield New Town2,233Lewes and West Wealden753455268751070001,658
WealdenUckfield North4,432Lewes and West Wealden1,521918621157750003,292
WealdenUckfield Ridgewood2,581Lewes and West Wealden1,07548821893420001,916
WealdenWadhurst4,195Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,9896071991261960003,117
 Total81,425 37,02913,4006,2801,7991,95900060,467

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wealden seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lewes and West Wealden

The new seat of Lewes and West Wealden is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lewes and West Wealden
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LewesBarcombe and Hamsey1,712Lewes69973537000001,309
LewesChailey and Wivelsfield4,113Lewes1,997147998000003,142
LewesDitchling and Westmeston1,923Lewes1,02956383000001,468
LewesKingston1,679Lewes64853581000001,282
LewesLewes Bridge3,813Lewes1,0796001,235000002,914
LewesLewes Castle3,906Lewes1,0856601,239000002,984
LewesLewes Priory6,212Lewes2,0149221,809000004,745
LewesNewick1,934Lewes96159457000001,477
LewesOuse Valley and Ringmer5,182Lewes2,0202851,653000003,958
LewesPlumpton, Streat, East Chiltington and St John (Without)1,839Lewes74661598000001,405
WealdenAlfriston1,852Lewes82460531000001,415
WealdenChiddingly and East Hoathly2,608Wealden1,23846811278410001,937
WealdenDanehill / Fletching / Nutley4,309Wealden2,128591292125640003,200
WealdenEast Dean1,821Lewes90352436000001,391
WealdenHailsham Central and North4,518Wealden1,84078658470760003,356
WealdenHailsham East2,320Wealden1,02850511933380001,723
WealdenHailsham South and West6,820Wealden2,9431,3673872501180005,065
WealdenHellingly4,832Wealden1,97581564273830003,588
WealdenHoram2,139Wealden1,13029010728340001,589
WealdenPolegate North3Bexhill and Battle110000002
WealdenPolegate North4,197Lewes1,6193881,199000003,206
WealdenPolegate South1,963Lewes763177559000001,499
WealdenUckfield Central2,401Wealden98240731736410001,783
WealdenUckfield New Town2,233Wealden753455268751070001,658
WealdenUckfield North4,432Wealden1,521918621157750003,292
WealdenUckfield Ridgewood2,581Wealden1,07548821893420001,916
 Total81,342 33,00110,68415,8821,01871900061,304

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lewes and West Wealden. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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