Lincoln and North Hykeham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lincoln and North Hykeham: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 80,226
Turnout: 67.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,24546.5%
LAB24,54145.3%
LIB1,6863.1%
UKIP1,4822.7%
Green7601.4%
OTH5201.0%
CON Majority7041.3%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Lincoln and North Hykeham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lincoln and North Hykeham constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right3° Right
National Position8° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born91%91%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job42%48%51%
High SEC43%47%51%
Average Age46.049.148.5
ABC1 Class46%50%53%

Lincoln and North Hykeham ranks #178 for "Leave", #190 for "Right" and #165 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lincoln and North Hykeham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lincoln and North Hykeham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lincoln and North Hykeham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Lincoln

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lincoln, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LincolnTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LincolnAbbey7,898Lincoln and North Hykeham2,0162,8291451457500545,264
LincolnBirchwood5,681Lincoln and North Hykeham1,8141,771421034100143,785
LincolnBoultham5,119Lincoln and North Hykeham1,2971,87585924100213,411
LincolnBracebridge4,995Lincoln and North Hykeham1,6831,386119913700123,328
LincolnCarholme9,607Lincoln and North Hykeham2,5033,242263143117001336,401
LincolnCastle5,165Lincoln and North Hykeham1,4801,70696894500263,442
LincolnGlebe5,292Lincoln and North Hykeham1,4931,80571924000263,527
LincolnHartsholme4,522Lincoln and North Hykeham1,6491,15488813200113,015
LincolnMinster5,053Lincoln and North Hykeham1,5051,66646904100203,368
LincolnMoorland5,081Lincoln and North Hykeham1,4381,73768943700133,387
LincolnPark5,922Lincoln and North Hykeham1,4822,1551131115500303,946
North KestevenBracebridge Heath and Waddington East6,386Sleaford2,6191,373931051500504,255
North KestevenSkellingthorpe2,390Lincoln and North Hykeham8156355552800271,592
 Total73,111 21,79423,3341,2841,2885840043748,721

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lincoln seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sleaford and North HykehamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell4,588Sleaford2,39270990603200373,320
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton3,907Sleaford1,897598961643700352,827
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme4,069Sleaford1,713975104704000432,945
North KestevenBranston4,038Sleaford1,878757131674700422,922
North KestevenCliff Villages4,363Sleaford2,037814129725100543,157
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,294Sleaford2,053780124654300423,107
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,395Boston and Skegness2,0237521122073900473,180
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,540Sleaford2,6648421932245900284,010
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,893Boston and Skegness92233846291600181,369
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,719Sleaford83129651281800201,244
North KestevenMetheringham4,472Sleaford2,154803127704400393,237
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum2,027Lincoln and North Hykeham90339883372400211,466
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,112Lincoln and North Hykeham93342286382600241,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,501Lincoln and North Hykeham1,619660117573800422,533
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,917Lincoln and North Hykeham79439679356200201,386
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,917Lincoln and North Hykeham92633360322000171,388
North KestevenOsbournby1,895Sleaford96430839271600181,372
North KestevenRuskington4,606Sleaford2,199855114764000493,333
North KestevenSleaford Castle2,182Sleaford88152377432700281,579
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham2,248Sleaford91453677442600301,627
North KestevenSleaford Navigation2,271Sleaford89856482472600261,643
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,749Sleaford2,5851,1511961066100614,160
North KestevenSleaford Westholme2,058Sleaford79952073432500291,489
North KestevenWaddington West2,027Lincoln and North Hykeham89537170100210091,466
South KestevenBelvoir2,598Sleaford1,31144059332300131,879
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield180Grantham and Stamford7438692002131
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's248Grantham and Stamford94638113001180
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,121Sleaford1,01238258332100281,534
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway4,043Sleaford1,954712116644100382,925
South KestevenViking3,948Sleaford1,925672119604200382,856
 Total90,926 42,24417,0082,7221,9519700089965,794

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sleaford and North Hykeham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lincoln and North Hykeham

The new seat of Lincoln and North Hykeham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lincoln and North Hykeham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LincolnAbbey7,898Lincoln2,0162,8291451457500545,264
LincolnBirchwood5,681Lincoln1,8141,771421034100143,785
LincolnBoultham5,119Lincoln1,2971,87585924100213,411
LincolnBracebridge4,995Lincoln1,6831,386119913700123,328
LincolnCarholme9,607Lincoln2,5033,242263143117001336,401
LincolnCastle5,165Lincoln1,4801,70696894500263,442
LincolnGlebe5,292Lincoln1,4931,80571924000263,527
LincolnHartsholme4,522Lincoln1,6491,15488813200113,015
LincolnMinster5,053Lincoln1,5051,66646904100203,368
LincolnMoorland5,081Lincoln1,4381,73768943700133,387
LincolnPark5,922Lincoln1,4822,1551131115500303,946
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum2,027Sleaford and North Hykeham90339883372400211,466
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,112Sleaford and North Hykeham93342286382600241,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,501Sleaford and North Hykeham1,619660117573800422,533
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,917Sleaford and North Hykeham79439679356200201,386
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,917Sleaford and North Hykeham92633360322000171,388
North KestevenSkellingthorpe2,390Lincoln8156355552800271,592
North KestevenWaddington West2,027Sleaford and North Hykeham89537170100210091,466
 Total80,226 25,24524,5411,6861,4827600052054,234

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lincoln and North Hykeham. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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