Llanelli: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Llanelli: Overview

Projection: LAB seat

Implied MP at 2017:Nia Griffith  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:79,594
Turnout:69.3%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB29,96954.4%
CON14,66826.6%
Plaid8,07514.6%
UKIP1,5562.8%
LIB8111.5%
OTH460.1%
LAB Majority15,30127.8%

See overview of other seats in Wales.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Llanelli been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Llanelli: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Llanelli

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Gower

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gower, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GowerTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SwanseaBishopston2,610Gower and Swansea West1,0547603926052091,940
SwanseaClydach5,525Swansea East1,5762,58253680950134,387
SwanseaFairwood2,218Gower and Swansea West1,0055707018039011,703
SwanseaGorseinon3,228Llanelli8181,365403801730102,444
SwanseaGower2,828Gower and Swansea West1,11483711227073082,171
SwanseaGowerton3,862Gower and Swansea West1,2621,5924943092093,047
SwanseaKingsbridge3,299Llanelli8141,3892837062082,338
SwanseaLlangyfelach3,803Swansea East1,3851,39343470840102,962
SwanseaLower Loughor1,734Llanelli4358154719078011,395
SwanseaMawr1,305Swansea East456479916099071,066
SwanseaNewton2,687Gower and Swansea West1,1995908221033041,929
SwanseaOystermouth3,151Gower and Swansea West1,3089685727072062,438
SwanseaPenclawdd2,852Gower and Swansea West8281,1722328062092,122
SwanseaPenllergaer2,466Swansea East7928082224036061,688
SwanseaPennard2,175Gower and Swansea West769553472201300141,535
SwanseaPenyrheol4,131Llanelli1,0911,98043500200083,372
SwanseaPontardulais4,616Llanelli1,4332,007445901150163,674
SwanseaUpper Loughor2,092Llanelli5348456223095031,562
SwanseaWest Cross5,023Gower and Swansea West1,5872,0236047079073,803
 Total59,605 19,46022,72893064001,669014945,576

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gower seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Llanelli

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Llanelli, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LlanelliTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireBigyn4,706Llanelli6841,756631080708003,319
CarmarthenshireBurry Port3,015Llanelli5171,30226740208002,127
CarmarthenshireBynea2,934Llanelli4771,29726600210002,070
CarmarthenshireDafen2,531Llanelli3901,10228590206001,785
CarmarthenshireElli2,255Llanelli40780226600296001,591
CarmarthenshireFelinfoel1,451Llanelli22863413350114001,024
CarmarthenshireGlanymor3,990Llanelli5601,57125920566002,814
CarmarthenshireGlyn1,517Llanelli34257311360107001,069
CarmarthenshireHendy2,272Llanelli41974220490372001,602
CarmarthenshireHengoed2,636Llanelli48287726640410001,859
CarmarthenshireKidwelly2,480Llanelli4141,08615540179001,748
CarmarthenshireLlangennech3,499Llanelli6491,14227780570002,466
CarmarthenshireLlannon3,710Llanelli6471,26923830594002,616
CarmarthenshireLliedi3,912Llanelli6111,53996920422002,760
CarmarthenshireLlwynhendy3,176Llanelli4261,36829750343002,241
CarmarthenshirePembrey2,992Llanelli55294316730526002,110
CarmarthenshirePontyberem1,964Llanelli38659012450352001,385
CarmarthenshireSwiss Valley1,804Llanelli37460716440231001,272
CarmarthenshireTrimsaran1,797Llanelli32063610430258001,267
CarmarthenshireTycroes1,696Llanelli29760613370243001,196
CarmarthenshireTyisha2,862Llanelli3611,12626690437002,019
 Total57,199 9,54321,5685471,33007,3520040,340

The full details of these calculations are given on the Llanelli seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Llanelli

The new seat of Llanelli is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Llanelli
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireBigyn4,890Llanelli6841,756631080708003,319
CarmarthenshireBurry Port3,133Llanelli5171,30226740208002,127
CarmarthenshireBynea3,048Llanelli4771,29726600210002,070
CarmarthenshireDafen2,630Llanelli3901,10228590206001,785
CarmarthenshireElli2,343Llanelli40780226600296001,591
CarmarthenshireFelinfoel1,508Llanelli22863413350114001,024
CarmarthenshireGlanymor4,146Llanelli5601,57125920566002,814
CarmarthenshireGlyn1,576Llanelli34257311360107001,069
CarmarthenshireHendy2,361Llanelli41974220490372001,602
CarmarthenshireHengoed2,739Llanelli48287726640410001,859
CarmarthenshireKidwelly2,577Llanelli4141,08615540179001,748
CarmarthenshireLlangennech3,635Llanelli6491,14227780570002,466
CarmarthenshireLlannon3,855Llanelli6471,26923830594002,616
CarmarthenshireLliedi4,065Llanelli6111,53996920422002,760
CarmarthenshireLlwynhendy3,300Llanelli4261,36829750343002,241
CarmarthenshirePembrey3,109Llanelli55294316730526002,110
CarmarthenshirePontyberem2,041Llanelli38659012450352001,385
CarmarthenshireSwiss Valley1,874Llanelli37460716440231001,272
CarmarthenshireTrimsaran1,867Llanelli32063610430258001,267
CarmarthenshireTycroes1,762Llanelli29760613370243001,196
CarmarthenshireTyisha2,974Llanelli3611,12626690437002,019
SwanseaGorseinon3,331Gower8181,365403801730102,444
SwanseaKingsbridge3,188Gower8141,3892837062082,338
SwanseaLower Loughor1,901Gower4358154719078011,395
SwanseaPenyrheol4,599Gower1,0911,98043500200083,372
SwanseaPontardulais5,012Gower1,4332,007445901150163,674
SwanseaUpper Loughor2,130Gower5348456223095031,562
 Total79,594 14,66829,9698111,55608,07504655,125

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Llanelli. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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