Macclesfield: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Macclesfield: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:David Rutley  (CON)
County/Area:Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:78,474
Turnout:72.2%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,17253.3%
LAB20,39336.0%
LIB3,6206.4%
Green1,2782.3%
OTH1,1932.1%
CON Majority9,77917.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Macclesfield been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Macclesfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Macclesfield

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Macclesfield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Macclesfield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MacclesfieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastBollington6,298Macclesfield2,4621,541594072001424,811
Cheshire EastBroken Cross and Upton6,408Macclesfield2,7491,7122370122001284,948
Cheshire EastDisley3,485Macclesfield1,43086212806500312,516
Cheshire EastGawsworth3,079Macclesfield1,5485406204400242,218
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Central6,102Macclesfield1,9972,6182840151001465,196
Cheshire EastMacclesfield East3,249Macclesfield1,01694439607500772,508
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Hurdsfield3,188Macclesfield9061,37324506800382,630
Cheshire EastMacclesfield South5,898Macclesfield2,1102,513240012800615,052
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Tytherington6,690Macclesfield2,9731,6812580130001435,185
Cheshire EastMacclesfield West and Ivy5,814Macclesfield2,0602,40021806000594,797
Cheshire EastPoynton East and Pott Shrigley6,037Macclesfield2,7041,1682910102001224,387
Cheshire EastPoynton West and Adlington6,584Macclesfield3,1231,4562380119001255,061
Cheshire EastPrestbury3,321Macclesfield1,8844826302200362,487
Cheshire EastSutton3,429Macclesfield1,6336979705500292,511
 Total69,582 28,59519,9873,35101,213001,16154,307

The full details of these calculations are given on the Macclesfield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tatton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tatton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TattonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge3,425Bramhall and Wilmslow1,74665425604300782,777
Cheshire EastChelford3,169Macclesfield1,57740626906500322,349
Cheshire EastHandforth6,709Bramhall and Wilmslow2,5172,030507087001465,287
Cheshire EastHigh Legh3,349Altrincham and Knutsford1,80746915607800222,532
Cheshire EastKnutsford9,902Altrincham and Knutsford4,8881,8956160109001737,681
Cheshire EastMobberley3,357Altrincham and Knutsford1,70546940702800462,655
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,294Bramhall and Wilmslow1,60965722304000652,594
Cheshire EastWilmslow East2,880Bramhall and Wilmslow1,52349220009200592,366
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green3,304Bramhall and Wilmslow1,5591,03720904000252,870
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley7,442Bramhall and Wilmslow3,5661,3424930196001175,714
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,496Weaver Vale3,7752,348632018700907,032
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley3,431Eddisbury1,43371022702700362,433
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath3,582Eddisbury1,0601,46823803100302,827
 Total63,340 28,76513,9774,43301,0230091949,117

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tatton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Macclesfield

The new seat of Macclesfield is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Macclesfield
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastBollington6,664Macclesfield2,4621,541594072001424,811
Cheshire EastBroken Cross and Upton6,854Macclesfield2,7491,7122370122001284,948
Cheshire EastChelford3,247Tatton1,57740626906500322,349
Cheshire EastDisley3,486Macclesfield1,43086212806500312,516
Cheshire EastGawsworth3,074Macclesfield1,5485406204400242,218
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Central7,198Macclesfield1,9972,6182840151001465,196
Cheshire EastMacclesfield East3,475Macclesfield1,01694439607500772,508
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Hurdsfield3,643Macclesfield9061,37324506800382,630
Cheshire EastMacclesfield South6,998Macclesfield2,1102,513240012800615,052
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Tytherington7,181Macclesfield2,9731,6812580130001435,185
Cheshire EastMacclesfield West and Ivy6,644Macclesfield2,0602,40021806000594,797
Cheshire EastPoynton East and Pott Shrigley6,076Macclesfield2,7041,1682910102001224,387
Cheshire EastPoynton West and Adlington7,011Macclesfield3,1231,4562380119001255,061
Cheshire EastPrestbury3,445Macclesfield1,8844826302200362,487
Cheshire EastSutton3,478Macclesfield1,6336979705500292,511
 Total78,474 30,17220,3933,62001,278001,19356,656

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Macclesfield. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc1)