Monmouthshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Monmouthshire: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 75,521
Turnout: 73.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,40352.9%
LAB20,56937.0%
LIB2,1013.8%
Plaid1,5652.8%
UKIP9941.8%
Green8581.5%
OTH1170.2%
CON Majority8,83415.9%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Monmouthshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Monmouthshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right10° Left
National Position1° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity34%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job55%46%51%
High SEC57%46%51%
Average Age52.349.648.5
ABC1 Class57%47%53%

Monmouthshire ranks #388 for "Leave", #297 for "Right" and #398 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Monmouthshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Monmouthshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Monmouthshire

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Monmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Monmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MonmouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North2,660Torfaen7521,12466343329002,038
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South1,404Torfaen43453030421723001,076
TorfaenLlanyrafon North1,563Torfaen42366847222017001,197
TorfaenLlanyrafon South2,104Torfaen91557743272427001,613
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,404Monmouthshire69231320141423001,076
MonmouthshireCantref1,574Monmouthshire68442341162122001,207
MonmouthshireCastle1,528Monmouthshire63837886192227001,170
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,744Monmouthshire44278841202323001,337
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,667Monmouthshire79137229182245001,277
MonmouthshireDevauden1,158Monmouthshire6121795510131900888
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,879Monmouthshire792392164243334001,439
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,741Monmouthshire932853703190124002,100
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,881Monmouthshire98735534192124001,440
MonmouthshireGrofield1,442Monmouthshire433473120202633001,105
MonmouthshireLansdown1,715Monmouthshire39381644212218001,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,505Monmouthshire544411113242439001,155
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc996Monmouthshire4682321811151900763
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,029Monmouthshire1,211767744046182002,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,518Monmouthshire75932326162019001,163
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,433Monmouthshire79322917121532001,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,742Monmouthshire88738616131716001,335
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,336Monmouthshire72222518111533001,024
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,063Monmouthshire3524041912131400814
MonmouthshireMardy1,314Monmouthshire54331570182041001,007
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy982Monmouthshire537161158102200753
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,821Monmouthshire64861552192735001,396
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,643Monmouthshire67548129191836001,258
MonmouthshirePriory1,556Monmouthshire52649497222330001,192
MonmouthshireRaglan1,508Monmouthshire69736827171828001,155
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,245Monmouthshire6952021810141500954
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's2,037Monmouthshire55685952252742001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,343Monmouthshire1,145419147243129001,795
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,592Monmouthshire485529112212746001,220
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,715Monmouthshire81536961182527001,315
MonmouthshireThornwell2,106Monmouthshire60887346262337001,613
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,105Monmouthshire1,06542237202840001,612
MonmouthshireUsk2,196Monmouthshire1,14139065223232001,682
MonmouthshireWyesham1,662Monmouthshire62048946196335001,272
 Total64,911 26,41218,2042,0657649521,3370049,734

The full details of these calculations are given on the Monmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newport East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newport East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newport EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,404Monmouthshire381429162504804903
MonmouthshireDewstow1,445Monmouthshire2755441331050016929
MonmouthshireGreen Lane1,430Monmouthshire3115201630027016920
MonmouthshireMill1,998Monmouthshire70049318370220141,284
MonmouthshireRogiet1,332Monmouthshire3404044232026013857
MonmouthshireSevern1,297Monmouthshire255490152504009834
MonmouthshireThe Elms2,497Monmouthshire82766023450350161,606
MonmouthshireWest End1,481Monmouthshire2735911530025018952
NewportAlway6,088Newport1,0342,620861230450103,918
NewportBeechwood5,450Newport1,1352,0261401250700103,506
NewportLangstone3,263Monmouthshire1,3695984459026042,100
NewportLiswerry9,054Newport1,7923,671871790810155,825
NewportLlanwern2,194Monmouthshire7845352041025071,412
NewportRingland6,310Newport1,0772,6831151360340144,059
NewportSt Julians6,304Newport1,2792,3341871490940124,055
NewportVictoria5,685Newport9672,20513011302330103,658
 Total57,232 12,79920,8039671,1800881018836,818

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newport East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Monmouthshire

The new seat of Monmouthshire is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Monmouthshire
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,404Monmouth69231320141423001,076
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,404Newport East381429162504804903
MonmouthshireCantref1,574Monmouth68442341162122001,207
MonmouthshireCastle1,528Monmouth63837886192227001,170
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,744Monmouth44278841202323001,337
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,667Monmouth79137229182245001,277
MonmouthshireDevauden1,158Monmouth6121795510131900888
MonmouthshireDewstow1,445Newport East2755441331050016929
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,879Monmouth792392164243334001,439
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,741Monmouth932853703190124002,100
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,881Monmouth98735534192124001,440
MonmouthshireGreen Lane1,430Newport East3115201630027016920
MonmouthshireGrofield1,442Monmouth433473120202633001,105
MonmouthshireLansdown1,715Monmouth39381644212218001,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,505Monmouth544411113242439001,155
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc996Monmouth4682321811151900763
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,029Monmouth1,211767744046182002,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,518Monmouth75932326162019001,163
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,433Monmouth79322917121532001,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,742Monmouth88738616131716001,335
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,336Monmouth72222518111533001,024
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,063Monmouth3524041912131400814
MonmouthshireMardy1,314Monmouth54331570182041001,007
MonmouthshireMill1,998Newport East70049318370220141,284
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy982Monmouth537161158102200753
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,821Monmouth64861552192735001,396
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,643Monmouth67548129191836001,258
MonmouthshirePriory1,556Monmouth52649497222330001,192
MonmouthshireRaglan1,508Monmouth69736827171828001,155
MonmouthshireRogiet1,332Newport East3404044232026013857
MonmouthshireSevern1,297Newport East255490152504009834
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,715Monmouth81536961182527001,315
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,245Monmouth6952021810141500954
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's2,037Monmouth55685952252742001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,343Monmouth1,145419147243129001,795
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,592Monmouth485529112212746001,220
MonmouthshireThe Elms2,497Newport East82766023450350161,606
MonmouthshireThornwell2,106Monmouth60887346262337001,613
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,105Monmouth1,06542237202840001,612
MonmouthshireUsk2,196Monmouth1,14139065223232001,682
MonmouthshireWest End1,481Newport East2735911530025018952
MonmouthshireWyesham1,662Monmouth62048946196335001,272
NewportLangstone3,263Newport East1,3695984459026042,100
NewportLlanwern2,194Newport East7845352041025071,412
 Total75,521 29,40320,5692,1019948581,565011755,607

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Monmouthshire.


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