Newry and Armagh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 78,756
Turnout: 62.6%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SF20,06740.7%
DUP10,03220.4%
SDLP9,46219.2%
Alliance4,1168.4%
UUP4,0338.2%
OTH1,5713.2%
SF Majority10,03520.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Newry and Armagh : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Newry and Armagh constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %35%44%52%
British Identity23%40%29%
Good Health50%48%48%
UK Born90%93%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job43%47%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age46.547.248.4
ABC1 Class38%45%53%

Newry and Armagh ranks #547 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Newry and Armagh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newry and Armagh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East811Down Mid4082164850124015510
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha721Down Mid326719359091011453
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,038Down South54113202950169019652
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,472Down South17632481727205350572,181
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey251Newry and Armagh640152007204157
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,995Down South16337140123706590511,882
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,660Down South9637125132005860481,672
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,761Down South12831739632905150511,736
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,957Down South16429159723405220501,858
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,868Down South10666917022305930421,803
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,172Down South10445619330108880521,994
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,962Down South7973917223005990421,861
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,249Down South631672211280183023785
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly586Newry and Armagh221013746015309368
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy431Down Mid2150874505908270
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,226Down South12871519325006940482,028
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,805Down South13451618530605750481,764
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,953Down South12838730435006330541,856
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum3,055Down South14239138236705820561,920
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,537Down South15774022127607760532,223
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,833Down South15929746723405740481,779
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,307Down South8395118925805510472,079
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale3,002Down South8882117623405250431,887
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,443Down South16752022627109260542,164
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,142Down South14467820024506610481,976
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,896Down South13647218624907300471,820
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,699Down South12281517321103350411,697
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,375Down South10984419826206580492,120
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's789Newry and Armagh2916349620181012496
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,777Down South8880516221604340411,746
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,900Down South13446418522707690441,823
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,504Down South10677920727307860512,202
 Total79,177 3,30814,5167,6196,915016,13801,26649,762

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall529Newry and Armagh17629019014006370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches389Upper Bann13021014010204271
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,212Fermanagh and South Tyrone9369607404120221,540
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,759Fermanagh and South Tyrone3888605906740181,225
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,956Fermanagh and South Tyrone6329806605470201,363
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,125Fermanagh and South Tyrone6409807206490221,481
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,523Fermanagh and South Tyrone3926005105430151,061
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,414Fermanagh and South Tyrone813121010506160271,682
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,971Fermanagh and South Tyrone56810006706190201,374
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,800Fermanagh and South Tyrone4069006006810181,255
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,504Fermanagh and South Tyrone2956905006180151,047
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,898Fermanagh and South Tyrone7939106303560191,322
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,260Fermanagh and South Tyrone59812208107490241,574
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,738Fermanagh and South Tyrone4648505905860181,212
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,374Fermanagh and South Tyrone74512007906870241,655
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,218Fermanagh and South Tyrone8547407505190221,544
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,246Fermanagh and South Tyrone7659707706030231,565
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea2,003Fermanagh and South Tyrone3799106708380201,395
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,129Fermanagh and South Tyrone5468407107610221,484
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,653Fermanagh and South Tyrone3187605506860171,152
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,261Fermanagh and South Tyrone701128011906010271,576
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,402Fermanagh and South Tyrone261630470592014977
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,759Fermanagh and South Tyrone5729507404640191,224
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,802Fermanagh and South Tyrone7209106003660181,255
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,311Fermanagh and South Tyrone64112107807470241,611
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,443Fermanagh and South Tyrone83911108306450251,703
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,028Fermanagh and South Tyrone47410206807490211,414
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,228Fermanagh and South Tyrone937166012809850332,249
Mid UlsterCaledon2,512Fermanagh and South Tyrone71212908407990261,750
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,657Fermanagh and South Tyrone4498605605470171,155
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,204Fermanagh and South Tyrone7999007405500221,535
Mid UlsterKillyman1,945Fermanagh and South Tyrone7087107204840191,354
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,720Fermanagh and South Tyrone870120012107560281,895
Mid UlsterMoy2,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone822140011707070271,813
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,506Fermanagh and South Tyrone85877010506810261,747
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,766Fermanagh and South Tyrone72514709809290281,927
 Total72,847 21,9263,44502,648021,988075050,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,763Newry and Armagh25344544420509260802,353
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,638Newry and Armagh13447234318501,0670742,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,665Newry and Armagh19350138821909110802,292
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,239Newry and Armagh29119179515905270622,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,634Newry and Armagh15447335718901,0230762,272
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland558Down South445011640087011348
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,063Newry and Armagh23820480615404540591,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon94Upper Bann642850130258
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,533Newry and Armagh33421981217606000682,209
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,285Newry and Armagh23437646717807290692,053
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,579Newry and Armagh32321187617505840692,238
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,552Newry and Armagh28845344319807610782,221
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,665Upper Bann34020489317806060702,291
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,579Newry and Armagh26637567826705760752,237
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,722Newry and Armagh5145125013707580551,702
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,694Newry and Armagh6862534518801,0070762,309
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,409Newry and Armagh12128731216101,1860642,131
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,687Newry and Armagh7726023312509340501,679
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,613Newry and Armagh5225321211709530481,635
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,721Newry and Armagh8447427314406680581,701
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,448Newry and Armagh6569531417208390702,155
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,929Newry and Armagh5355926614607470591,830
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,652Newry and Armagh6828322612209100501,659
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge308Down South1562331705907193
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,882Newry and Armagh7630324613409900541,803
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,671Newry and Armagh10421625112809190511,669
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,797Newry and Armagh8858527214605990591,749
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,846Newry and Armagh18521832214408530561,778
 Total81,226 4,2059,44911,0014,209020,28601,63050,780

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newry and Armagh

The new seat of Newry and Armagh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newry and Armagh
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,763Newry and Armagh25344544420509260802,353
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,638Newry and Armagh13447234318501,0670742,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,665Newry and Armagh19350138821909110802,292
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,239Newry and Armagh29119179515905270622,025
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,634Newry and Armagh15447335718901,0230762,272
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall529Fermanagh and South Tyrone17629019014006370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,063Newry and Armagh23820480615404540591,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,533Newry and Armagh33421981217606000682,209
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,285Newry and Armagh23437646717807290692,053
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,579Newry and Armagh32321187617505840692,238
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,552Newry and Armagh28845344319807610782,221
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,579Newry and Armagh26637567826705760752,237
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey251Down South640152007204157
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,722Newry and Armagh5145125013707580551,702
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,694Newry and Armagh6862534518801,0070762,309
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,409Newry and Armagh12128731216101,1860642,131
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,687Newry and Armagh7726023312509340501,679
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,613Newry and Armagh5225321211709530481,635
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly586Down South221013746015309368
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,721Newry and Armagh8447427314406680581,701
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,448Newry and Armagh6569531417208390702,155
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,929Newry and Armagh5355926614607470591,830
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,652Newry and Armagh6828322612209100501,659
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,882Newry and Armagh7630324613409900541,803
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,671Newry and Armagh10421625112809190511,669
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's789Down South2916349620181012496
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,797Newry and Armagh8858527214605990591,749
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,846Newry and Armagh18521832214408530561,778
 Total78,756 4,0339,46210,0324,116020,06701,57149,281

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Newry and Armagh. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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