Newry and Armagh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,876
Turnout: 68.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,26248.6%
DUP12,17923.4%
SDLP9,13617.6%
UUP4,1988.1%
MIN1,1862.3%
Green30.0%
SF Majority13,08325.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newry and Armagh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newry and Armagh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down Mid2810219800171230522
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down Mid207422100128200463
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South3513025300219290666
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South118436847007339802,232
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Newry and Armagh35619007670161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South103595330008593901,926
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South71452375007377501,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South74468390007657701,774
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South101587326008493801,901
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South62761210007387201,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South85538448008798902,039
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South40946204006387601,904
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Down South3817531000242380803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Newry and Armagh71314400177170376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Down Mid13601070083130276
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South70856237008308102,074
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South96556309008053601,802
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South79501417008188301,898
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South82519431008468601,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South77939259009108802,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South97562311008143601,820
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South451,056227007138502,126
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South40959206006477701,929
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South118684379009884402,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South68834231008097802,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South99574319008313701,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South36863185005816901,734
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South74895248008688402,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Newry and Armagh91775900239230507
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South37888191005987101,785
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South99576319008333701,864
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South76930257009018702,251
 Total75,686 2,00017,8808,8670020,3251,813050,885

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh18717003172100389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1371300212680286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone934800095713101,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone507630076892501,291
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone825700085052801,436
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone613770088323001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone36350005698201,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8768100337374401,771
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone569710087712801,447
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone519650077052601,322
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone35950005689201,105
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone800680074902701,392
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8207600316904201,659
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone501630076812501,277
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,002860096133401,744
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8057400316774101,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8157500316874101,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone47766007918301,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone50770007975301,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone39454005757301,213
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8217600316914201,661
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone33446005642201,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6395900235373201,290
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone761650074652601,324
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone74394009847401,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone785990010895501,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone65282008743401,489
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,13811000161,0426302,369
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone8071020010920501,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone53267007607301,216
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone70889009808401,618
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone686670096283801,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9599300138785301,996
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9188900138405101,911
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone8848600128094901,840
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9769500138935402,031
 Total70,599 24,3532,5880042525,228888053,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Newry and Armagh246483530001,2081702,484
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh237466512001,1681702,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh239469516001,1761702,417
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh322175805007429302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh237466512001,1661702,398
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South513614300124150369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Newry and Armagh230118940006518202,021
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Upper Bann742900203063
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh3511908780081010102,330
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh214421462001,0541502,166
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh3561938890082010202,360
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh3541928820081410202,344
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Upper Bann3651989100084010502,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh233459504001,1491602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh44493350008357401,796
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh59669474001,13310002,435
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh117312392001,419902,249
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh92245309001,118701,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh90239301001,088701,725
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh44493350008347401,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh55625443001,0589402,275
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh47531376008997901,932
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh91242305001,103701,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South106240008380203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh99263332001,200801,902
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh92244308001,111701,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh45507359008587601,845
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh98260328001,184801,878
 Total78,266 4,4259,05513,1790025,6651,260053,584

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newry and Armagh

The new seat of Newry and Armagh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newry and Armagh
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Newry and Armagh246483530001,2081702,484
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh237466512001,1681702,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh239469516001,1761702,417
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh322175805007429302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh237466512001,1661702,398
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Fermanagh and South Tyrone18717003172100389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Newry and Armagh230118940006518202,021
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh3511908780081010102,330
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh214421462001,0541502,166
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh3561938890082010202,360
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh3541928820081410202,344
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh233459504001,1491602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Down South35619007670161
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh44493350008357401,796
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh59669474001,13310002,435
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh117312392001,419902,249
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh92245309001,118701,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh90239301001,088701,725
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Down South71314400177170376
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh44493350008347401,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh55625443001,0589402,275
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh47531376008997901,932
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh91242305001,103701,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh99263332001,200801,902
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh92244308001,111701,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Down South91775900239230507
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh45507359008587601,845
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh98260328001,184801,878
 Total75,876 4,1989,13612,1790325,2621,186051,964

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newry and Armagh. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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