Newton Abbot: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newton Abbot: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Anne Marie Morris  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 74,528
Turnout: 72.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,77354.9%
LAB12,55723.1%
LIB10,55319.5%
Green1,0762.0%
UKIP1350.2%
MIN960.2%
OTH520.1%
CON Majority17,21631.7%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Newton Abbot : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Newton Abbot constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat4° Nat
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education38%40%39%
Good Job49%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age53.050.548.5
ABC1 Class52%54%53%

Newton Abbot ranks #243 for "Leave", #267 for "Right" and #282 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newton Abbot: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newton Abbot been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newton Abbot

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonExe Valley1,703Devon East833310932321029151,324
Mid DevonBradninch1,710Devon Central68633525421210951,331
Mid DevonCadbury1,366Devon Central579286846219021111,062
Mid DevonLawrence3,146Devon Central1,02671747313070020112,447
Mid DevonSandford and Creedy2,865Devon Central1,3635461853468021112,228
Mid DevonSilverton1,550Devon Central561336226244101261,206
Mid DevonTaw1,370Devon Central63825013618140741,067
Mid DevonTaw Vale1,367Devon Central601279120212801051,064
Mid DevonUpper Yeo1,468Devon Central7762507417150631,141
Mid DevonWay1,360Devon Central68326265151601161,058
TeignbridgeAshburton and Buckfastleigh6,457Devon Central2,2881,49583386170097535,022
TeignbridgeBovey6,433Devon Central2,5941,32071495148085465,002
TeignbridgeChudleigh5,136Newton Abbot2,1281,17236373141076413,994
TeignbridgeHaytor2,398Devon Central1,0154522913427031171,867
TeignbridgeKenn Valley4,951Newton Abbot2,08593262762114020113,851
TeignbridgeMoorland2,346Devon Central9525331503482048261,825
TeignbridgeTeignbridge North2,209Devon Central9804341953225034181,718
TeignbridgeTeign Valley2,242Devon Central1,0084531232864043231,742
Mid DevonBoniface3,212Devon Central95379348713887026142,498
Mid DevonNewbrooke1,288Devon Central57729871141601791,002
Mid DevonYeo2,890Devon Central1,3215203043631023132,248
West DevonBridestowe218Devon Central96461137042169
West DevonChagford1,201Devon Central50326674183902212934
West DevonDrewsteignton1,362Devon Central7162236515310531,058
West DevonExbourne3,084Devon Central1,5565831414430029162,399
West DevonHatherleigh2,466Devon Central1,292426120342501581,920
West DevonOkehampton North3,723Devon Central1,5748542136092067362,896
West DevonOkehampton South3,213Devon Central1,24882218213238050272,499
West DevonSouth Tawton1,637Devon Central645405952553033181,274
 Total74,371 31,27715,5986,7691,3281,533087147057,846

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newton Abbot

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newton Abbot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newton AbbotTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TeignbridgeBishopsteignton2,167Newton Abbot9272683350300001,560
TeignbridgeBradley4,152Newton Abbot1,7996754890270002,990
TeignbridgeBuckland and Milber5,923Newton Abbot1,9791,0451,1550860004,265
TeignbridgeBushell5,785Newton Abbot2,0291,0251,0300820004,166
TeignbridgeDawlish Central and North East6,820Newton Abbot2,8071,17681301140004,910
TeignbridgeDawlish South West4,213Newton Abbot1,8696894110650003,034
TeignbridgeIpplepen2,057Totnes8122653900130001,480
TeignbridgeKenton with Starcross2,543Newton Abbot9103805010400001,831
TeignbridgeKerswell-with-Combe4,819Newton Abbot1,9146878360330003,470
TeignbridgeKingsteignton East4,935Newton Abbot2,1368795060320003,553
TeignbridgeKingsteignton West4,385Newton Abbot1,6226828220310003,157
TeignbridgeShaldon and Stokeinteignhead2,076Newton Abbot1,0902121780140001,494
TeignbridgeTeignmouth Central4,219Newton Abbot1,8226445070640003,037
TeignbridgeTeignmouth East3,891Newton Abbot1,6896044470610002,801
TeignbridgeTeignmouth West4,163Newton Abbot1,4037617660670002,997
TeignbridgeAmbrook5,223Totnes2,2637566480930003,760
TeignbridgeCollege4,350Newton Abbot1,5647267670750003,132
 Total71,721 28,63511,47410,601092700051,637

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newton Abbot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newton Abbot

The new seat of Newton Abbot is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newton Abbot
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TeignbridgeBishopsteignton2,167Newton Abbot9272683350300001,560
TeignbridgeBradley4,152Newton Abbot1,7996754890270002,990
TeignbridgeBuckland and Milber5,923Newton Abbot1,9791,0451,1550860004,265
TeignbridgeBushell5,785Newton Abbot2,0291,0251,0300820004,166
TeignbridgeChudleigh5,136Devon Central2,1281,17236373141076413,994
TeignbridgeCollege4,350Newton Abbot1,5647267670750003,132
TeignbridgeDawlish Central and North East6,820Newton Abbot2,8071,17681301140004,910
TeignbridgeDawlish South West4,213Newton Abbot1,8696894110650003,034
TeignbridgeKenn Valley4,951Devon Central2,08593262762114020113,851
TeignbridgeKenton with Starcross2,543Newton Abbot9103805010400001,831
TeignbridgeKerswell-with-Combe4,819Newton Abbot1,9146878360330003,470
TeignbridgeKingsteignton East4,935Newton Abbot2,1368795060320003,553
TeignbridgeKingsteignton West4,385Newton Abbot1,6226828220310003,157
TeignbridgeShaldon and Stokeinteignhead2,076Newton Abbot1,0902121780140001,494
TeignbridgeTeignmouth Central4,219Newton Abbot1,8226445070640003,037
TeignbridgeTeignmouth East3,891Newton Abbot1,6896044470610002,801
TeignbridgeTeignmouth West4,163Newton Abbot1,4037617660670002,997
 Total74,528 29,77312,55710,5531351,0760965254,242

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newton Abbot. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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