Nottingham West and Beeston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Nottingham West and Beeston: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Lilian Greenwood  (LAB)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 87,438
Turnout: 68.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB35,11758.9%
CON19,75733.2%
LIB2,3413.9%
UKIP1,5502.6%
Green8151.4%
LAB Majority15,36025.8%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Nottingham West and Beeston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Nottingham West and Beeston constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position2° Left4° Right
National Position14° Int8° Nat
EU Leave %43%59%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health50%45%48%
UK Born78%91%88%
Good Education52%36%39%
Good Job53%48%51%
High SEC42%47%51%
Average Age41.149.148.5
ABC1 Class59%50%53%

Nottingham West and Beeston ranks #447 for "Leave", #399 for "Right" and #408 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Nottingham West and Beeston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Nottingham West and Beeston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Nottingham West and Beeston

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Broxtowe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Broxtowe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BroxtoweTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroxtoweAttenborough and Chilwell East5,548Nottingham West and Beeston2,1211,687188100650004,161
BroxtoweAwsworth, Cossall and Trowell4,061Broxtowe and Hucknall1,4501,258167131400003,046
BroxtoweBeeston Central4,369Nottingham West and Beeston1,1491,84113196590003,276
BroxtoweBeeston North4,428Nottingham West and Beeston1,2401,682208127620003,319
BroxtoweBeeston Rylands3,703Nottingham West and Beeston1,0551,49016145260002,777
BroxtoweBeeston West4,350Nottingham West and Beeston1,2191,66923177670003,263
BroxtoweBramcote5,670Broxtowe and Hucknall2,3631,507252103270004,252
BroxtoweChilwell West6,004Broxtowe and Hucknall2,0222,102166148650004,503
BroxtoweGreasley4,964Broxtowe and Hucknall1,9891,459120137170003,722
BroxtoweKimberley5,072Broxtowe and Hucknall1,6961,8938568630003,805
BroxtoweNuthall East and Strelley4,104Broxtowe and Hucknall1,6711,21055102400003,078
BroxtoweStapleford North3,747Broxtowe and Hucknall1,1261,5466255210002,810
BroxtoweStapleford South East3,903Broxtowe and Hucknall1,3661,31217850210002,927
BroxtoweStapleford South West4,163Broxtowe and Hucknall1,1781,7808355250003,121
BroxtoweToton and Chilwell Meadows6,401Broxtowe and Hucknall2,7511,728113141670004,800
BroxtoweWatnall and Nuthall West3,529Broxtowe and Hucknall1,5899564740150002,647
 Total74,016 25,98525,1202,2471,47568000055,507

The full details of these calculations are given on the Broxtowe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Nottingham North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nottingham North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nottingham NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NottinghamAspley12,139Nottingham North1,7344,67479372950006,954
NottinghamBasford11,133Nottingham North2,1423,6511053531270006,378
NottinghamBestwood11,579Nottingham North1,9944,0121233721320006,633
NottinghamBilborough11,557Nottingham West and Beeston2,0903,970151364460006,621
NottinghamBulwell11,113Nottingham North1,9623,90382366530006,366
NottinghamBulwell Forest9,373Nottingham North1,9852,856135307860005,369
 Total66,894 11,90723,0666752,13453900038,321

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nottingham North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Nottingham South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nottingham South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nottingham SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NottinghamBridge9,670Nottingham West and Beeston1,4434,5912511511030006,539
NottinghamClifton North8,495Rushcliffe North and Clifton2,1013,307138169290005,744
NottinghamClifton South9,200Rushcliffe North and Clifton1,8683,927156192780006,221
NottinghamDunkirk and Lenton6,869Nottingham West and Beeston1,3853,04055100650004,645
NottinghamLeen Valley7,073Nottingham West and Beeston1,3043,148172108500004,782
NottinghamRadford and Park13,689Nottingham West and Beeston2,7185,9173101771350009,257
NottinghamWollaton East and Lenton Abbey6,563Nottingham West and Beeston1,1552,913205100640004,437
NottinghamWollaton West9,619Nottingham West and Beeston2,8783,169278105730006,503
 Total71,178 14,85230,0121,5651,10259700048,128

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nottingham South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Nottingham West and Beeston

The new seat of Nottingham West and Beeston is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Nottingham West and Beeston
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroxtoweAttenborough and Chilwell East5,548Broxtowe2,1211,687188100650004,161
BroxtoweBeeston Central4,369Broxtowe1,1491,84113196590003,276
BroxtoweBeeston North4,428Broxtowe1,2401,682208127620003,319
BroxtoweBeeston Rylands3,703Broxtowe1,0551,49016145260002,777
BroxtoweBeeston West4,350Broxtowe1,2191,66923177670003,263
NottinghamBilborough11,557Nottingham North2,0903,970151364460006,621
NottinghamBridge9,670Nottingham South1,4434,5912511511030006,539
NottinghamDunkirk and Lenton6,869Nottingham South1,3853,04055100650004,645
NottinghamLeen Valley7,073Nottingham South1,3043,148172108500004,782
NottinghamRadford and Park13,689Nottingham South2,7185,9173101771350009,257
NottinghamWollaton East and Lenton Abbey6,563Nottingham South1,1552,913205100640004,437
NottinghamWollaton West9,619Nottingham South2,8783,169278105730006,503
 Total87,438 19,75735,1172,3411,55081500059,580

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Nottingham West and Beeston. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (28-Feb-2019 15:34)