Oxfordshire East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Oxfordshire East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: John Howell  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 80,458
Turnout: 75.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON36,52059.8%
LAB12,28220.1%
LIB8,69714.2%
Green1,9023.1%
UKIP1,2092.0%
OTH4320.7%
CON Majority24,23839.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Oxfordshire East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Oxfordshire East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position3° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %44%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education50%43%39%
Good Job64%56%51%
High SEC66%57%51%
Average Age51.149.248.5
ABC1 Class69%60%53%

Oxfordshire East ranks #476 for "Leave", #200 for "Right" and #419 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Oxfordshire East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Oxfordshire East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Oxfordshire East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Banbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Banbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BanburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAdderbury2,139Banbury1,03340657213300211,571
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton2,734Oxfordshire East1,37148367511500202,007
CherwellBanbury Calthorpe3,845Banbury1,4701,017153876600312,824
CherwellBanbury Easington5,538Banbury2,1831,3512861169400394,069
CherwellBanbury Grimsbury and Castle7,749Banbury2,3622,61137515712800585,691
CherwellBanbury Hardwick6,003Banbury2,2481,5713221279400484,410
CherwellBanbury Neithrop4,144Banbury1,1141,574166886900323,043
CherwellBanbury Ruscote6,038Banbury1,5362,4191951289100644,433
CherwellBicester East4,159Banbury1,6971,113136503200263,054
CherwellBicester North4,994Banbury2,1491,1201831027900363,669
CherwellBicester South3,853Banbury1,6278471464069001012,830
CherwellBicester Town3,659Banbury1,2901,035131835900892,687
CherwellBicester West5,267Banbury1,9351,33820714679001643,869
CherwellBloxham and Bodicote4,329Banbury1,874835266897400433,181
CherwellCaversfield2,136Banbury1,07541834201100131,571
CherwellCropredy1,937Banbury96432054363000201,424
CherwellDeddington1,922Banbury878318132343100191,412
CherwellFringford1,663Oxfordshire East89024139281300111,222
CherwellHook Norton1,857Banbury89531987152800191,363
CherwellLaunton2,580Oxfordshire East1,215418194321900171,895
CherwellSibford1,894Banbury92031480342900141,391
CherwellThe Astons and Heyfords3,513Banbury1,72662091635500252,580
CherwellWroxton1,864Banbury93530253332800161,367
 Total83,817 33,38720,9903,4541,5801,2260092661,563

The full details of these calculations are given on the Banbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Henley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Henley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HenleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellKirtlington2,344Abingdon and Oxford North1,04846017463340071,786
CherwellOtmoor1,929Oxfordshire East1,08318814916280051,469
South OxfordshireBenson and Crowmarsh6,415Oxfordshire East2,7519279526116000344,885
South OxfordshireBerinsfield3,156Oxfordshire East1,251741264389300162,403
South OxfordshireChalgrove2,655Oxfordshire East1,06633754628360082,021
South OxfordshireChinnor5,817Oxfordshire East2,940684644627600244,430
South OxfordshireForest Hill and Holton2,798Oxfordshire East1,09344351927430072,132
South OxfordshireGarsington and Horspath2,731Oxfordshire East1,17953324632810082,079
South OxfordshireGoring2,839Oxfordshire East1,301382349268700162,161
South OxfordshireHaseley Brook3,088Oxfordshire East1,52742432825400072,351
South OxfordshireHenley-on-Thames8,953Oxfordshire East3,8151,453799289342001196,817
South OxfordshireKidmore End and Whitchurch2,804Oxfordshire East1,374362237239300452,134
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams2,289Oxfordshire East95339429721710061,742
South OxfordshireSonning Common5,641Oxfordshire East2,7707915225214100194,295
South OxfordshireThame8,867Oxfordshire East3,4511,5851,24723021200266,751
South OxfordshireWatlington3,051Oxfordshire East1,551398250259000102,324
South OxfordshireWheatley3,018Oxfordshire East1,16859339880500092,298
South OxfordshireWoodcote and Rotherfield6,592Oxfordshire East3,4277605635718700255,019
 Total74,987 33,74811,4558,4841,1551,8640039157,097

The full details of these calculations are given on the Henley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wantage

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wantage, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WantageTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey6,614Wantage2,8201,1325201152080004,795
South OxfordshireDidcot North East8,504Wantage3,0652,0827541601040006,165
South OxfordshireDidcot South8,224Wantage2,6032,390721155920005,961
South OxfordshireDidcot West3,971Wantage1,4021,04231774430002,878
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams838Oxfordshire East34414587625000607
South OxfordshireWallingford6,442Wantage2,3761,4754951112130004,670
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell4,127Wantage1,82267138169480002,991
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,447Abingdon and Oxford North90540439743250001,774
Vale of White HorseFaringdon5,866Wantage2,1151,107809511700004,252
Vale of White HorseGrove North4,290Wantage1,52178268478450003,110
Vale of White HorseHendreds2,327Wantage1,03444816913230001,687
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize2,584Wantage1,15433733918260001,874
Vale of White HorseMarcham3,351Abingdon and Oxford North1,39143354829270002,428
Vale of White HorseRidgeway2,295Wantage1,07234720417230001,663
Vale of White HorseStanford2,851Wantage1,24155921721290002,067
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys2,386Wantage1,06438721043260001,730
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay2,286Wantage95644019738260001,657
Vale of White HorseThames1,911Wantage85226022825200001,385
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook5,809Wantage2,0951,02891999700004,211
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton5,142Wantage1,931908641911560003,727
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham5,470Wantage2,695701398281440003,966
 Total87,735 34,45817,0789,2351,2841,54300063,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wantage seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Oxfordshire East

The new seat of Oxfordshire East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Oxfordshire East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CherwellAmbrosden and Chesterton2,734Banbury1,37148367511500202,007
CherwellFringford1,663Banbury89024139281300111,222
CherwellLaunton2,580Banbury1,215418194321900171,895
CherwellOtmoor1,929Henley1,08318814916280051,469
South OxfordshireBenson and Crowmarsh6,415Henley2,7519279526116000344,885
South OxfordshireBerinsfield3,156Henley1,251741264389300162,403
South OxfordshireChalgrove2,655Henley1,06633754628360082,021
South OxfordshireChinnor5,817Henley2,940684644627600244,430
South OxfordshireForest Hill and Holton2,798Henley1,09344351927430072,132
South OxfordshireGarsington and Horspath2,731Henley1,17953324632810082,079
South OxfordshireGoring2,839Henley1,301382349268700162,161
South OxfordshireHaseley Brook3,088Henley1,52742432825400072,351
South OxfordshireHenley-on-Thames8,953Henley3,8151,453799289342001196,817
South OxfordshireKidmore End and Whitchurch2,804Henley1,374362237239300452,134
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams2,289Henley95339429721710061,742
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams838Wantage34414587625000607
South OxfordshireSonning Common5,641Henley2,7707915225214100194,295
South OxfordshireThame8,867Henley3,4511,5851,24723021200266,751
South OxfordshireWatlington3,051Henley1,551398250259000102,324
South OxfordshireWheatley3,018Henley1,16859339880500092,298
South OxfordshireWoodcote and Rotherfield6,592Henley3,4277605635718700255,019
 Total80,458 36,52012,2828,6971,2091,9020043261,042

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Oxfordshire East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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