Pembrokeshire Mid and South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Pembrokeshire Mid and South: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Stephen Crabb  (CON)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 79,496
Turnout: 72.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,29345.9%
LAB24,53442.8%
Plaid3,2125.6%
LIB1,1732.0%
UKIP1,1572.0%
MIN9201.6%
OTH230.0%
CON Majority1,7593.1%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Pembrokeshire Mid and South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Pembrokeshire Mid and South constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Left9° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%52%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education36%36%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age52.049.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Pembrokeshire Mid and South ranks #210 for "Leave", #359 for "Right", #198 for "National" and #293 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Pembrokeshire Mid and South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Pembrokeshire Mid and South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Pembrokeshire Mid and South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireCarew1,152Pembrokeshire Mid and South443307121605300831
PembrokeshireHundleton1,422Pembrokeshire Mid and South5393941121060001,025
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,185Pembrokeshire Mid and South499274121605400855
PembrokeshireLamphey1,274Pembrokeshire Mid and South493341161904900918
PembrokeshireManorbier1,581Pembrokeshire Mid and South6054421624055001,142
PembrokeshireNarberth1,445Pembrokeshire Mid and South5074183621061001,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,167Pembrokeshire Mid and South456303161605000841
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,346Pembrokeshire Mid and South329560151904700970
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,126Pembrokeshire Mid and South5259032327057001,535
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,359Pembrokeshire Mid and South378496222006300979
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,539Pembrokeshire Mid and South5701,08838300104001,830
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,256Pembrokeshire Mid and South371463132103800906
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,568Pembrokeshire Mid and South5474881623057001,131
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,086Pembrokeshire Mid and South393312151704600783
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,813Pembrokeshire Mid and South7994171725049001,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,318Pembrokeshire Mid and South542281132209300951
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,982Pembrokeshire Mid and South8704532128057001,429
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,580Pembrokeshire Mid and South48641433280178001,139
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,956Pembrokeshire Mid and South6835664231089001,411
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,886Carmarthen1,1181,08978680449002,802
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,915Carmarthen87379655550324002,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,984Carmarthen1,1591,10387700453002,872
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,284Carmarthen75754024380288001,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,156Carmarthen7456592630097001,557
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,589Carmarthen53337113260203001,146
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,495Carmarthen50435216250181001,078
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,259Carmarthen781596116320104001,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,573Carmarthen52035557270175001,134
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,712Carmarthen54043441290191001,235
PembrokeshireAmroth940Pembrokeshire Mid and South40422671302700677
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,865Pembrokeshire Mid and South7155102028071001,344
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,675Pembrokeshire Mid and South6304781927052001,206
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,060Pembrokeshire Mid and South456232101305300764
 Total58,548 19,77016,66195690503,9280042,220

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Preseli Pembrokeshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Preseli PembrokeshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireClydau1,098Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire35527313150125100791
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,420Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire47041927240424111,024
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,189Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire2734504917041271858
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,535Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire395485721801152001,105
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,795Pembrokeshire Mid and South41974331180582411,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,072Pembrokeshire Mid and South57077039300424111,493
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,881Pembrokeshire Mid and South60357745320583911,355
PembrokeshireJohnston1,916Pembrokeshire Mid and South63058833310564211,381
PembrokeshireLetterston1,769Pembrokeshire Mid and South72042921220483511,276
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,118Pembrokeshire Mid and South3793111917050281805
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,380Pembrokeshire Mid and South768603313502314711,716
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,690Pembrokeshire Mid and South46462128240483111,217
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,533Pembrokeshire Mid and South425440272601414411,104
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,641Pembrokeshire Mid and South37770319220392311,184
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,712Pembrokeshire Mid and South50357134320524311,236
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,903Pembrokeshire Mid and South41681829280483211,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,110Pembrokeshire Mid and South79757328290504211,520
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,723Pembrokeshire Mid and South423575252701702001,240
PembrokeshireNewport878Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire2642244312068221634
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,657Pembrokeshire Mid and South39271723180321201,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,678Pembrokeshire Mid and South42667021210373511,211
PembrokeshireSt David's1,408Pembrokeshire Mid and South45040537230722811,016
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,727Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire557474272701134611,245
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,078Pembrokeshire Mid and South4022861316034251777
PembrokeshireScleddau1,130Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire4052591615096230814
PembrokeshireSolva1,445Pembrokeshire Mid and South43842326200775611,041
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,169Pembrokeshire Mid and South4053232117045311843
PembrokeshireWiston1,521Pembrokeshire Mid and South70530112120481901,097
PembrokeshireBurton1,405Pembrokeshire Mid and South50340116230383211,014
PembrokeshireCamrose1,907Pembrokeshire Mid and South68251527290705111,375
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,551Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire51242526240884211,118
PembrokeshireCrymych1,916Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire602467262902134311,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,295Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire4173497616061150934
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,840Pembrokeshire Mid and South60055145310594011,327
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,538Pembrokeshire Mid and South47748236260573011,109
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,781Pembrokeshire Mid and South61051231280554711,284
PembrokeshireMartletwy423Pembrokeshire Mid and South173965501690304
PembrokeshireRudbaxton708Pembrokeshire Mid and South296164810018140510
 Total58,540 18,30317,9931,10584902,7111,2092942,199

The full details of these calculations are given on the Preseli Pembrokeshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Pembrokeshire Mid and South

The new seat of Pembrokeshire Mid and South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Pembrokeshire Mid and South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireAmroth940Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South40422671302700677
PembrokeshireBurton1,405Preseli Pembrokeshire50340116230383211,014
PembrokeshireCamrose1,907Preseli Pembrokeshire68251527290705111,375
PembrokeshireCarew1,152Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South443307121605300831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,865Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7155102028071001,344
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,795Preseli Pembrokeshire41974331180582411,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,072Preseli Pembrokeshire57077039300424111,493
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,840Preseli Pembrokeshire60055145310594011,327
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,538Preseli Pembrokeshire47748236260573011,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,881Preseli Pembrokeshire60357745320583911,355
PembrokeshireHundleton1,422Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5393941121060001,025
PembrokeshireJohnston1,916Preseli Pembrokeshire63058833310564211,381
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,675Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South6304781927052001,206
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,185Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South499274121605400855
PembrokeshireLamphey1,274Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South493341161904900918
PembrokeshireLetterston1,769Preseli Pembrokeshire72042921220483511,276
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,781Preseli Pembrokeshire61051231280554711,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,118Preseli Pembrokeshire3793111917050281805
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,380Preseli Pembrokeshire768603313502314711,716
PembrokeshireManorbier1,581Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South6054421624055001,142
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,060Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South456232101305300764
PembrokeshireMartletwy423Preseli Pembrokeshire173965501690304
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,690Preseli Pembrokeshire46462128240483111,217
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,533Preseli Pembrokeshire425440272601414411,104
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,641Preseli Pembrokeshire37770319220392311,184
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,712Preseli Pembrokeshire50357134320524311,236
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,903Preseli Pembrokeshire41681829280483211,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,110Preseli Pembrokeshire79757328290504211,520
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,723Preseli Pembrokeshire423575252701702001,240
PembrokeshireNarberth1,445Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5074183621061001,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,167Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South456303161605000841
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,657Preseli Pembrokeshire39271723180321201,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,678Preseli Pembrokeshire42667021210373511,211
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,346Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South329560151904700970
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,126Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5259032327057001,535
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,359Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South378496222006300979
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,539Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5701,08838300104001,830
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,256Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South371463132103800906
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,568Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5474881623057001,131
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,086Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South393312151704600783
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,813Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7994171725049001,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,318Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South542281132209300951
PembrokeshireRudbaxton708Preseli Pembrokeshire296164810018140510
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,982Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South8704532128057001,429
PembrokeshireSolva1,445Preseli Pembrokeshire43842326200775611,041
PembrokeshireSt David's1,408Preseli Pembrokeshire45040537230722811,016
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,078Preseli Pembrokeshire4022861316034251777
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,580Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South48641433280178001,139
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,956Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South6835664231089001,411
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,169Preseli Pembrokeshire4053232117045311843
PembrokeshireWiston1,521Preseli Pembrokeshire70530112120481901,097
 Total79,496 26,29324,5341,1731,15703,2129202357,312

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Pembrokeshire Mid and South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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