Penrith and Solway: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Penrith and Solway: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Rory Stewart  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 73,608
Turnout: 70.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,33156.6%
LAB16,75632.3%
LIB3,3916.5%
UKIP1,4002.7%
Green5411.0%
OTH3780.7%
CON Majority12,57524.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Penrith and Solway : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Penrith and Solway constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right6° Left
National Position6° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health46%46%48%
UK Born97%92%88%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job45%49%51%
High SEC49%48%51%
Average Age52.848.648.5
ABC1 Class48%50%53%

Penrith and Solway ranks #289 for "Leave", #165 for "Right" and #216 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Penrith and Solway: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Penrith and Solway been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Penrith and Solway

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Copeland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Copeland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CopelandTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,181Penrith and Solway60618418140000822
AllerdaleDalton1,420Penrith and Solway61624374540000987
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,231Penrith and Solway59322026170000856
AllerdaleKeswick3,992Penrith and Solway1,2421,1992745900002,774
CopelandArlecdon1,178Cumbria West46631220210000819
CopelandBeckermet2,312Cumbria West1,055475423500001,607
CopelandBootle987Cumbria West48117814130000686
CopelandBransty3,871Cumbria West1,634916816000002,691
CopelandCleator Moor North3,157Cumbria West7741,2554112400002,194
CopelandCleator Moor South2,144Cumbria West528896313600001,491
CopelandDistington3,097Cumbria West7661,285515000002,152
CopelandEgremont North3,404Cumbria West9671,280586100002,366
CopelandEgremont South2,855Cumbria West7581,123535000001,984
CopelandEnnerdale774Cumbria West34414639100000539
CopelandFrizington1,956Cumbria West507797233300001,360
CopelandGosforth1,074Cumbria West54717016140000747
CopelandHarbour3,096Cumbria West9341,095675600002,152
CopelandHaverigg1,414Barrow and Furness50041840250000983
CopelandHensingham3,199Cumbria West8011,307635300002,224
CopelandHillcrest2,017Cumbria West812513433400001,402
CopelandHolborn Hill1,893Barrow and Furness672584283100001,315
CopelandKells1,875Cumbria West484747383400001,303
CopelandMillom Without1,055Barrow and Furness52518114130000733
CopelandMirehouse3,434Cumbria West8111,471466000002,388
CopelandMoresby1,057Cumbria West41528815170000735
CopelandNewtown2,673Barrow and Furness1,138631464300001,858
CopelandSt Bees1,374Cumbria West61824970170000954
CopelandSandwith1,878Cumbria West426828213000001,305
CopelandSeascale2,154Cumbria West1,041378492900001,497
 Total61,752 21,06119,3691,4011,093000042,924

The full details of these calculations are given on the Copeland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Penrith and The Border

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Penrith and The Border, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Penrith and The BorderTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,589Penrith and Solway7802005745470041,133
AllerdaleWigton4,641Penrith and Solway1,3721,46319016011100153,311
CarlisleBrampton3,697Carlisle1,45876117111911800112,638
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,668Carlisle7323635816170041,190
CarlisleHayton1,692Carlisle72831564551900261,207
CarlisleIrthing1,582Carlisle7432615118480071,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,226Carlisle1,3106941271075300102,301
CarlisleLyne1,533Carlisle7832064118420041,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,715Carlisle1,6386681281149100112,650
EdenAlston Moor1,655Penrith and Solway69434177222500211,180
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,025Westmorland and Lonsdale4232174615140017732
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,395Westmorland and Lonsdale5162561812017005995
EdenAskham1,139Penrith and Solway5211661001012004813
EdenBrough1,051Westmorland and Lonsdale4761884113120018748
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,114Penrith and Solway597140341011002794
EdenDacre1,132Penrith and Solway45817713712130011808
EdenEamont1,160Penrith and Solway607157371311003828
EdenGreystoke1,117Penrith and Solway577150381114007797
EdenHartside1,013Penrith and Solway503151371012009722
EdenHesket2,470Penrith and Solway1,28233276252200251,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,052Westmorland and Lonsdale94436187252400221,463
EdenKirkby Thore1,235Penrith and Solway5432394715150021880
EdenKirkoswald1,171Penrith and Solway5501944812160015835
EdenLangwathby1,243Penrith and Solway5722185214160016888
EdenLazonby1,136Penrith and Solway594153381112003811
EdenLong Marton965Penrith and Solway506125331010005689
EdenMorland1,040Penrith and Solway4901733912120016742
EdenOrton with Tebay1,075Westmorland and Lonsdale533165421112003766
EdenPenrith Carleton1,223Penrith and Solway5222021161613003872
EdenPenrith East2,138Penrith and Solway82141223429230071,526
EdenPenrith North3,338Penrith and Solway1,283626376434300112,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,078Penrith and Solway3602371421511004769
EdenPenrith South2,001Penrith and Solway709403234302300281,427
EdenPenrith West2,579Penrith and Solway762719282333300111,840
EdenRavenstonedale783Westmorland and Lonsdale4131022579003559
EdenShap1,108Penrith and Solway548173371212007789
EdenSkelton1,163Penrith and Solway633138351011002829
EdenUllswater1,119Penrith and Solway599133371113006799
EdenWarcop1,081Westmorland and Lonsdale4981864613140014771
 Total65,142 28,07812,1653,6411,1421,0310041146,468

The full details of these calculations are given on the Penrith and The Border seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Workington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Workington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WorkingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,710Penrith and Solway1,0331,30994107000232,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,607Penrith and Solway72691839101000191,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,429Penrith and Solway64030516190009989
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,220Penrith and Solway1,0111,02459113000202,227
AllerdaleChristchurch2,561Penrith and Solway9706581013300091,771
AllerdaleClifton1,225Cumbria West29152313180002847
AllerdaleEllen2,508Penrith and Solway715893299100061,734
AllerdaleEllenborough2,900Cumbria West6111,2903749000192,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,681Cumbria West5591,1712983000131,855
AllerdaleFlimby1,309Cumbria West30553916420003905
AllerdaleHarrington2,438Cumbria West7367429892000181,686
AllerdaleHolme1,306Penrith and Solway57529413190003904
AllerdaleMarsh1,235Penrith and Solway56225419160003854
AllerdaleMoorclose3,860Cumbria West8421,6915262000232,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,832Cumbria West7291,812436000072,651
AllerdaleNetherhall2,369Cumbria West5779204087000141,638
AllerdaleSt John's4,118Cumbria West9561,60218672000322,848
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,986Cumbria West8211,72668129000132,757
AllerdaleSeaton3,998Cumbria West1,1251,4156415200092,765
AllerdaleSilloth2,528Penrith and Solway9216723997000201,749
AllerdaleSolway1,244Penrith and Solway51031315180004860
AllerdaleStainburn1,321Cumbria West44839721440002912
AllerdaleWampool1,299Penrith and Solway59926713170002898
AllerdaleWaver1,387Penrith and Solway63329114190002959
AllerdaleWharrels1,183Penrith and Solway49629015150002818
 Total60,254 17,39121,3161,1331,55500027741,672

The full details of these calculations are given on the Workington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Penrith and Solway

The new seat of Penrith and Solway is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Penrith and Solway
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,710Workington1,0331,30994107000232,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,607Workington72691839101000191,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,429Workington64030516190009989
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,220Workington1,0111,02459113000202,227
AllerdaleChristchurch2,561Workington9706581013300091,771
AllerdaleCrummock1,181Copeland60618418140000822
AllerdaleDalton1,420Copeland61624374540000987
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,231Copeland59322026170000856
AllerdaleEllen2,508Workington715893299100061,734
AllerdaleHolme1,306Workington57529413190003904
AllerdaleKeswick3,992Copeland1,2421,1992745900002,774
AllerdaleMarsh1,235Workington56225419160003854
AllerdaleSilloth2,528Workington9216723997000201,749
AllerdaleSolway1,244Workington51031315180004860
AllerdaleWampool1,299Workington59926713170002898
AllerdaleWarnell1,589Penrith and The Border7802005745470041,133
AllerdaleWaver1,387Workington63329114190002959
AllerdaleWharrels1,183Workington49629015150002818
AllerdaleWigton4,641Penrith and The Border1,3721,46319016011100153,311
EdenAlston Moor1,655Penrith and The Border69434177222500211,180
EdenAskham1,139Penrith and The Border5211661001012004813
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,114Penrith and The Border597140341011002794
EdenDacre1,132Penrith and The Border45817713712130011808
EdenEamont1,160Penrith and The Border607157371311003828
EdenGreystoke1,117Penrith and The Border577150381114007797
EdenHartside1,013Penrith and The Border503151371012009722
EdenHesket2,470Penrith and The Border1,28233276252200251,762
EdenKirkby Thore1,235Penrith and The Border5432394715150021880
EdenKirkoswald1,171Penrith and The Border5501944812160015835
EdenLangwathby1,243Penrith and The Border5722185214160016888
EdenLazonby1,136Penrith and The Border594153381112003811
EdenLong Marton965Penrith and The Border506125331010005689
EdenMorland1,040Penrith and The Border4901733912120016742
EdenPenrith Carleton1,223Penrith and The Border5222021161613003872
EdenPenrith East2,138Penrith and The Border82141223429230071,526
EdenPenrith North3,338Penrith and The Border1,283626376434300112,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,078Penrith and The Border3602371421511004769
EdenPenrith South2,001Penrith and The Border709403234302300281,427
EdenPenrith West2,579Penrith and The Border762719282333300111,840
EdenShap1,108Penrith and The Border548173371212007789
EdenSkelton1,163Penrith and The Border633138351011002829
EdenUllswater1,119Penrith and The Border599133371113006799
 Total73,608 29,33116,7563,3911,4005410037851,797

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Penrith and Solway.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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