Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Gary Streeter  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 75,969
Turnout: 74.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority18,86533.5%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position7° Nat4° Nat
Social Position3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education43%40%39%
Good Job53%50%51%
High SEC58%52%51%
Average Age52.350.548.5
ABC1 Class58%54%53%

Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge ranks #318 for "Leave", #72 for "Right", #208 for "National" and #266 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
PlymouthPlympton Chaddlewood6,576Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,6481,795180196580004,877
PlymouthPlympton Erle7,100Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,8291,8173111851250005,267
PlymouthPlympton St Mary10,319Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge4,6022,3132902661820007,653
PlymouthPlymstock Dunstone9,855Plymouth Sutton and Devonport4,2562,2423982641490007,309
PlymouthPlymstock Radford10,025Plymouth Sutton and Devonport4,2512,534287268970007,437
South HamsBickleigh and Cornwood2,210Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,09737110824400001,640
South HamsCharterlands2,199Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,1433774323450001,631
South HamsErmington and Ugborough2,089Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,01035912220380001,549
South HamsIvybridge East4,597Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,8831,018311110870003,409
South HamsIvybridge West4,960Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,44494813160960003,679
South HamsLoddiswell and Aveton Gifford720Totnes37512214715000533
South HamsNewton and Yealmpton4,592Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge2,18080228645940003,407
South HamsWembury and Brixton3,568Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,76160018439620002,646
South HamsWoolwell2,453Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,1565196532470001,819
 Total71,263 31,63515,8172,7301,5391,13500052,856

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Devon West and Torridge

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon West and Torridge, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon West and TorridgeTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
TorridgeAppledore2,332Bideford, Bude and Launceston97835430506000261,723
TorridgeBideford East4,969Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,7121,114664012200583,670
TorridgeBideford North4,822Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,5001,087805011700523,561
TorridgeBideford South4,421Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,3131,24862105600283,266
TorridgeBroadheath1,415Bideford, Bude and Launceston7591441200130081,044
TorridgeClinton1,274Devon Central5401791700320019940
TorridgeClovelly Bay1,337Bideford, Bude and Launceston606195163017007988
TorridgeCoham Bridge1,290Bideford, Bude and Launceston6611431210120016953
TorridgeForest1,436Bideford, Bude and Launceston70916314902800131,062
TorridgeHartland and Bradworthy2,494Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,02937034706800291,843
TorridgeHolsworthy3,237Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,41645843906300152,391
TorridgeKenwith1,424Bideford, Bude and Launceston7771291270130061,052
TorridgeMonkleigh and Littleham1,165Bideford, Bude and Launceston5101601480290014861
TorridgeNortham4,615Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,97580551905600543,409
TorridgeOrchard Hill1,278Bideford, Bude and Launceston632150140016006944
TorridgeShebbear and Langtree1,659Bideford, Bude and Launceston8501801590300071,226
TorridgeTamarside1,418Bideford, Bude and Launceston63520417701500171,048
TorridgeThree Moors1,358Devon Central6821471410270061,003
TorridgeTorrington4,728Devon Central1,713906682013300593,493
TorridgeTwo Rivers1,416Devon Central75513712901400101,045
TorridgeWaldon1,399Bideford, Bude and Launceston63220017101300171,033
TorridgeWestward Ho!1,734Bideford, Bude and Launceston74824921604200261,281
TorridgeWinkleigh1,722Devon Central74421824803600261,272
West DevonBere Ferrers2,897Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,17248737307000372,139
West DevonBridestowe2,276Devon Central1,01529528805600281,682
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,099Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,40738039607400312,288
West DevonBurrator2,995Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,23544841508000342,212
West DevonDartmoor1,829Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge8972101980380081,351
West DevonMary Tavy1,284Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge5851681640150016948
West DevonMilton Ford1,570Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge80117115801500141,159
West DevonTamarside1,436Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge67019316701500161,061
West DevonTavistock North4,115Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,627666586011400473,040
West DevonTavistock South East3,004Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge1,36139836606700282,220
West DevonTavistock South West3,077Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge96757065406700152,273
 Total80,525 33,61312,92610,52601,6230079359,481

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon West and Torridge seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge

The new seat of Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge
Old Seat CON
PlymouthPlympton Chaddlewood6,576Devon South West2,6481,795180196580004,877
PlymouthPlympton Erle7,100Devon South West2,8291,8173111851250005,267
PlymouthPlympton St Mary10,319Devon South West4,6022,3132902661820007,653
South HamsBickleigh and Cornwood2,210Devon South West1,09737110824400001,640
South HamsCharterlands2,199Devon South West1,1433774323450001,631
South HamsErmington and Ugborough2,089Devon South West1,01035912220380001,549
South HamsIvybridge East4,597Devon South West1,8831,018311110870003,409
South HamsIvybridge West4,960Devon South West2,44494813160960003,679
South HamsNewton and Yealmpton4,592Devon South West2,18080228645940003,407
South HamsWembury and Brixton3,568Devon South West1,76160018439620002,646
South HamsWoolwell2,453Devon South West1,1565196532470001,819
West DevonBere Ferrers2,897Devon West and Torridge1,17248737307000372,139
West DevonBuckland Monachorum3,099Devon West and Torridge1,40738039607400312,288
West DevonBurrator2,995Devon West and Torridge1,23544841508000342,212
West DevonDartmoor1,829Devon West and Torridge8972101980380081,351
West DevonMary Tavy1,284Devon West and Torridge5851681640150016948
West DevonMilton Ford1,570Devon West and Torridge80117115801500141,159
West DevonTamarside1,436Devon West and Torridge67019316701500161,061
West DevonTavistock North4,115Devon West and Torridge1,627666586011400473,040
West DevonTavistock South East3,004Devon West and Torridge1,36139836606700282,220
West DevonTavistock South West3,077Devon West and Torridge96757065406700152,273
 Total75,969 33,47514,6105,5081,0001,4290024656,268

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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