Poole: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Poole: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Robert Syms  (CON)
County/Area:Dorset (South West)
Electorate:78,394
Turnout:68.5%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,13058.0%
LAB14,64327.3%
LIB6,24111.6%
Green1,1762.2%
OTH5090.9%
CON Majority16,48730.7%

See overview of other seats in South West.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Poole been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Poole: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Poole

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dorset Mid and Poole North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dorset Mid and Poole North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dorset Mid and Poole NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetColehill East3,908Dorset Mid1,718317860000002,895
East DorsetColehill West2,042Dorset Mid1,032131339000001,502
East DorsetCorfe Mullen7,908Dorset Mid3,8197361,545000006,100
East DorsetStour209Dorset Mid113141900000146
East DorsetWimborne Minster4,998Dorset Mid2,0755531,141000003,769
PooleBroadstone8,335Dorset Mid3,7216391,762000006,122
PooleCanford Heath East5,106Poole2,1957471,391000004,333
PooleCanford Heath West4,949Poole2,3306731,063000004,066
PooleMerley and Bearwood7,965Dorset Mid3,8407361,632000006,208
PurbeckBere Regis1,352Dorset Mid736129172000001,037
PurbeckLytchett Matravers2,712Dorset Mid1,331240507000002,078
PurbeckLytchett Minster and Upton East3,058Dorset Mid1,356399782000002,537
PurbeckLytchett Minster and Upton West3,039Dorset Mid1,407326489000002,222
PurbeckSt Martin2,506Dorset Mid1,137254575000001,966
PurbeckWareham4,427Dorset Mid1,774529970000003,273
 Total62,514 28,5846,42313,2470000048,254

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dorset Mid and Poole North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Poole

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Poole, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: PooleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PooleAlderney396Bournemouth West1341073807003289
PooleBranksome East1,041Bournemouth West44121460019005739
PooleBranksome West4,736Bournemouth West1,7081,13654809800343,524
PooleCanford Cliffs7,862Poole3,932926253011100405,262
PooleCreekmoor7,051Poole2,7701,374522011200264,804
PooleHamworthy East4,598Poole1,7641,04821908700473,165
PooleHamworthy West4,894Poole2,0981,22224909000473,706
PooleNewtown7,926Poole2,9281,993784014400375,886
PooleOakdale7,853Poole3,0561,673479013900685,415
PooleParkstone8,218Poole3,5291,524393016300825,691
PoolePenn Hill7,804Poole3,6901,447378015500805,750
PoolePoole Town7,417Poole2,8382,016510017500825,621
 Total69,796 28,88814,6804,43301,3000055149,852

The full details of these calculations are given on the Poole seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Poole

The new seat of Poole is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Poole
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PooleCanford Cliffs7,792Poole3,932926253011100405,262
PooleCanford Heath East5,842Dorset Mid and Poole North2,1957471,391000004,333
PooleCanford Heath West5,482Dorset Mid and Poole North2,3306731,063000004,066
PooleCreekmoor7,112Poole2,7701,374522011200264,804
PooleHamworthy East4,684Poole1,7641,04821908700473,165
PooleHamworthy West5,486Poole2,0981,22224909000473,706
PooleNewtown8,714Poole2,9281,993784014400375,886
PooleOakdale8,018Poole3,0561,673479013900685,415
PooleParkstone8,426Poole3,5291,524393016300825,691
PoolePenn Hill8,516Poole3,6901,447378015500805,750
PoolePoole Town8,322Poole2,8382,016510017500825,621
 Total78,394 31,13014,6436,24101,1760050953,699

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Poole. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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