Rhuddlan and Flint: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Rhuddlan and Flint: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Chris Ruane  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 77,302
Turnout: 70.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB28,99153.3%
CON22,68041.7%
Plaid1,7703.3%
LIB9311.7%
LAB Majority6,31111.6%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Rhuddlan and Flint : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Rhuddlan and Flint constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left9° Left
National Position7° Nat
Social Position4° Con2° Lib
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%52%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC42%46%51%
Average Age51.149.648.5
ABC1 Class42%47%53%

Rhuddlan and Flint ranks #214 for "Leave", #394 for "Right", #193 for "National" and #208 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rhuddlan and Flint: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Rhuddlan and Flint been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Rhuddlan and Flint

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Delyn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Delyn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DelynTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FlintshireArgoed2,161Alyn and Deeside730714910039001,574
FlintshireBagillt East1,474Rhuddlan and Flint428602110032001,073
FlintshireBagillt West1,732Rhuddlan and Flint375845140027001,261
FlintshireBrynford1,693Rhuddlan and Flint749433110039001,232
FlintshireCaerwys1,970Rhuddlan and Flint898467170053001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,470Rhuddlan and Flint639391130029001,072
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,400Rhuddlan and Flint350646100014001,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,611Rhuddlan and Flint297840150022001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,056Rhuddlan and Flint6761,421660063002,226
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,383Rhuddlan and Flint5639773900158001,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,863Rhuddlan and Flint7191,225770064002,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,141Rhuddlan and Flint512984260038001,560
FlintshireGronant1,180Rhuddlan and Flint29453415001600859
FlintshireGwernaffield1,517Alyn and Deeside649387420027001,105
FlintshireGwernymynydd1,371Alyn and Deeside466467410026001,000
FlintshireHalkyn1,341Rhuddlan and Flint46745713004000977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,533Rhuddlan and Flint326736360019001,117
FlintshireHolywell East1,365Rhuddlan and Flint34060119003300993
FlintshireHolywell West1,822Rhuddlan and Flint5216601600129001,326
FlintshireLeeswood1,651Alyn and Deeside484652240042001,202
FlintshireMold Broncoed2,116Alyn and Deeside635764950047001,541
FlintshireMold East1,529Alyn and Deeside367704230020001,114
FlintshireMold South2,083Alyn and Deeside6946077900137001,517
FlintshireMold West2,047Alyn and Deeside4818463400130001,491
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,437Rhuddlan and Flint40560790026001,047
FlintshireNew Brighton2,353Alyn and Deeside782810800041001,713
FlintshireNorthop2,368Rhuddlan and Flint849801300045001,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,182Rhuddlan and Flint39243716001600861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,442Rhuddlan and Flint61236390066001,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824Rhuddlan and Flint632594610042001,329
 Total54,115 16,33220,5721,032001,4800039,416

The full details of these calculations are given on the Delyn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vale of Clwyd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vale of Clwyd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Vale of ClwydTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Conwy and Colwyn523607130034001,177
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire4875381800117001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire1,1329959200256002,475
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5291,073470081001,730
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Rhuddlan and Flint681518360044001,279
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire5684582800106001,160
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Rhuddlan and Flint915933250043001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Rhuddlan and Flint1,203939200053002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Rhuddlan and Flint573502130030001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Rhuddlan and Flint1,3061,697440048003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Rhuddlan and Flint862971190028001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Rhuddlan and Flint1,1017054600123001,975
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Rhuddlan and Flint1,0341,207250029002,295
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Rhuddlan and Flint8371,035270096001,995
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Rhuddlan and Flint1,5842,3057300130004,092
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Rhuddlan and Flint8232,015670060002,965
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Rhuddlan and Flint7171,5431300115002,388
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Conwy and Colwyn53231631003200911
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Conwy and Colwyn43743120002600914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Conwy and Colwyn64034250070001,057
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Conwy and Colwyn5592945003100889
 Total56,892 17,04319,424667001,5520038,686

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vale of Clwyd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Rhuddlan and Flint

The new seat of Rhuddlan and Flint is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Rhuddlan and Flint
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Vale of Clwyd681518360044001,279
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Vale of Clwyd915933250043001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Vale of Clwyd1,203939200053002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Vale of Clwyd573502130030001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Vale of Clwyd1,3061,697440048003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Vale of Clwyd862971190028001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Vale of Clwyd1,1017054600123001,975
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Vale of Clwyd1,0341,207250029002,295
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Vale of Clwyd8371,035270096001,995
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Vale of Clwyd1,5842,3057300130004,092
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Vale of Clwyd8232,015670060002,965
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Vale of Clwyd7171,5431300115002,388
FlintshireBagillt East1,474Delyn428602110032001,073
FlintshireBagillt West1,732Delyn375845140027001,261
FlintshireBrynford1,693Delyn749433110039001,232
FlintshireCaerwys1,970Delyn898467170053001,435
FlintshireCilcain1,470Delyn639391130029001,072
FlintshireFfynnongroyw1,400Delyn350646100014001,020
FlintshireFlint Castle1,611Delyn297840150022001,174
FlintshireFlint Coleshill3,056Delyn6761,421660063002,226
FlintshireFlint Oakenholt2,383Delyn5639773900158001,737
FlintshireFlint Trelawny2,863Delyn7191,225770064002,085
FlintshireGreenfield2,141Delyn512984260038001,560
FlintshireGronant1,180Delyn29453415001600859
FlintshireHalkyn1,341Delyn46745713004000977
FlintshireHolywell Central1,533Delyn326736360019001,117
FlintshireHolywell East1,365Delyn34060119003300993
FlintshireHolywell West1,822Delyn5216601600129001,326
FlintshireMostyn (Delyn)1,437Delyn40560790026001,047
FlintshireNorthop2,368Delyn849801300045001,725
FlintshireNorthop Hall1,182Delyn39243716001600861
FlintshireTrelawnyd and Gwaenysgor1,442Delyn61236390066001,050
FlintshireWhitford1,824Delyn632594610042001,329
 Total77,302 22,68028,991931001,7700054,372

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Rhuddlan and Flint. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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