Richmond: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Richmond: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Rishi Sunak  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 81,242
Turnout: 70.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON36,59563.9%
LAB13,41623.4%
LIB3,3715.9%
MIN2,1043.7%
Green1,7403.0%
UKIP60.0%
OTH10.0%
CON Majority23,17940.5%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Richmond : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Richmond constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right2° Left
National Position6° Nat4° Nat
EU Leave %55%58%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job56%47%51%
High SEC59%46%51%
Average Age50.548.548.5
ABC1 Class57%49%53%

Richmond ranks #264 for "Leave", #90 for "Right" and #133 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Richmond: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Richmond been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Richmond

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Richmond

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Richmond, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: RichmondTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RichmondshireAddlebrough1,002Richmond474146370150350707
RichmondshireBarton921Richmond455151210110110649
RichmondshireBolton Castle957Richmond456136280140400674
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton2,317Richmond1,1882966506102101,631
RichmondshireCatterick2,380Richmond1,08633882071010001,677
RichmondshireColburn3,662Richmond1,3917591580123014902,580
RichmondshireCroft964Richmond451136310300300678
RichmondshireGilling West899Richmond442119270110340633
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside1,022Richmond427196440150380720
RichmondshireHipswell4,227Richmond1,9776061360123013502,977
RichmondshireHornby Castle1,348Richmond671189380380140950
RichmondshireLeyburn1,930Richmond9222816502606601,360
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale1,125Richmond586120320310240793
RichmondshireMelsonby1,071Richmond547135290130320756
RichmondshireMiddleham972Richmond534105190110150684
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas894Richmond442114280110340629
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby984Richmond469122590120300692
RichmondshirePenhill857Richmond376114690130320604
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale929Richmond390155380350350653
RichmondshireRichmond Central2,138Richmond79637123607502801,506
RichmondshireRichmond East2,021Richmond78333717306706401,424
RichmondshireRichmond West2,189Richmond83543210007609901,542
RichmondshireScotton3,630Richmond1,772433114044019402,557
RichmondshireSwaledale824Richmond370120280280350581
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons2,267Richmond1,1722705506103801,596
HambletonBagby and Thorntons221Thirsk and Malton12421503030156
HambletonBedale7,296Richmond3,4401,0892250174021105,139
HambletonGreat Ayton4,288Richmond1,92871225105507503,021
HambletonHutton Rudby2,321Richmond1,1373755502903901,635
HambletonMorton-on-Swale2,009Richmond1,0332825202602301,416
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton4,154Richmond1,5299871630123012502,927
HambletonNorthallerton South5,325Richmond2,0001,39520908106603,751
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby2,265Richmond1,1133066302908401,595
HambletonRomanby4,668Richmond2,07891917806604703,288
HambletonStokesley4,579Richmond1,887757401011207003,227
HambletonTanfield2,267Richmond1,1753244402602901,598
 Total80,923 36,45613,3483,35801,73902,105057,006

The full details of these calculations are given on the Richmond seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thirsk and Malton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thirsk and Malton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thirsk and MaltonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RyedaleAmotherby1,638Thirsk and Malton757283591912019131,162
RyedaleAmpleforth1,757Thirsk and Malton8672525824380641,249
RyedaleCropton1,245Thirsk and Malton56522047161101511885
RyedaleDales1,163Thirsk and Malton57016540111201612826
RyedaleDerwent2,815Thirsk and Malton1,2454092532723026192,002
RyedaleHelmsley2,467Thirsk and Malton1,135401992950024171,755
RyedaleHovingham1,351Thirsk and Malton56226359163601410960
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,780Thirsk and Malton1,0925841333366040291,977
RyedaleMalton3,970Thirsk and Malton1,34498319916439054392,822
RyedaleNorton East3,164Thirsk and Malton99072634811123029212,248
RyedaleNorton West2,834Thirsk and Malton93558032710225027192,015
RyedalePickering East2,629Thirsk and Malton9785671963830035251,869
RyedalePickering West2,928Thirsk and Malton1,0946871574332040282,081
RyedaleRillington1,402Thirsk and Malton50631156563302115998
RyedaleRyedale South West1,367Thirsk and Malton731167451211043973
RyedaleSherburn1,617Thirsk and Malton6493316061360851,150
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,407Thirsk and Malton676217561613014101,002
RyedaleSinnington1,375Thirsk and Malton667205521628053976
RyedaleThornton Dale2,646Scarborough and Whitby1,233444100325201291,882
RyedaleWolds1,464Thirsk and Malton7322284016110851,040
ScarboroughFiley5,305Thirsk and Malton1,7321,304256227131071513,772
ScarboroughHertford3,935Thirsk and Malton1,64572915713580030222,798
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,493Thirsk and Malton1,32730976251801071,772
HambletonEasingwold7,972Thirsk and Malton3,5671,38233394158077565,667
HambletonHuby2,769Thirsk and Malton1,41139094322201281,969
HambletonMorton-on-Swale540Richmond263891864021383
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,783Thirsk and Malton1,444363892823019131,979
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,375Thirsk and Malton2,4369432267241061443,823
HambletonThirsk5,478Thirsk and Malton2,4181,0382267344056403,895
 Total78,669 33,57114,5703,8591,5341,102075553955,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thirsk and Malton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Richmond

The new seat of Richmond is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Richmond
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonAppleton Wiske and Smeatons2,267Richmond1,1722705506103801,596
HambletonBedale7,296Richmond3,4401,0892250174021105,139
HambletonGreat Ayton4,288Richmond1,92871225105507503,021
HambletonHutton Rudby2,321Richmond1,1373755502903901,635
HambletonMorton-on-Swale2,009Richmond1,0332825202602301,416
HambletonMorton-on-Swale540Thirsk and Malton263891864021383
HambletonNorthallerton North and Brompton4,154Richmond1,5299871630123012502,927
HambletonNorthallerton South5,325Richmond2,0001,39520908106603,751
HambletonOsmotherley and Swainby2,265Richmond1,1133066302908401,595
HambletonRomanby4,668Richmond2,07891917806604703,288
HambletonStokesley4,579Richmond1,887757401011207003,227
HambletonTanfield2,267Richmond1,1753244402602901,598
RichmondshireAddlebrough1,002Richmond474146370150350707
RichmondshireBarton921Richmond455151210110110649
RichmondshireBolton Castle957Richmond456136280140400674
RichmondshireBrompton-on-Swale and Scorton2,317Richmond1,1882966506102101,631
RichmondshireCatterick2,380Richmond1,08633882071010001,677
RichmondshireColburn3,662Richmond1,3917591580123014902,580
RichmondshireCroft964Richmond451136310300300678
RichmondshireGilling West899Richmond442119270110340633
RichmondshireHawes and High Abbotside1,022Richmond427196440150380720
RichmondshireHipswell4,227Richmond1,9776061360123013502,977
RichmondshireHornby Castle1,348Richmond671189380380140950
RichmondshireLeyburn1,930Richmond9222816502606601,360
RichmondshireLower Wensleydale1,125Richmond586120320310240793
RichmondshireMelsonby1,071Richmond547135290130320756
RichmondshireMiddleham972Richmond534105190110150684
RichmondshireMiddleton Tyas894Richmond442114280110340629
RichmondshireNewsham with Eppleby984Richmond469122590120300692
RichmondshirePenhill857Richmond376114690130320604
RichmondshireReeth and Arkengarthdale929Richmond390155380350350653
RichmondshireRichmond Central2,138Richmond79637123607502801,506
RichmondshireRichmond East2,021Richmond78333717306706401,424
RichmondshireRichmond West2,189Richmond83543210007609901,542
RichmondshireScotton3,630Richmond1,772433114044019402,557
RichmondshireSwaledale824Richmond370120280280350581
 Total81,242 36,59513,4163,37161,74002,104157,233

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Richmond. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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