Runnymede and Weybridge: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Runnymede and Weybridge: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Philip Hammond  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 75,618
Turnout: 69.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,03561.2%
LAB13,28125.4%
LIB4,0227.7%
UKIP1,6033.1%
Green1,3992.7%
OTH140.0%
CON Majority18,75435.8%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Runnymede and Weybridge : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Runnymede and Weybridge constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position18° Right11° Right
National Position3° Nat
Social Position1° Con1° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born82%88%88%
Good Education48%43%39%
Good Job63%56%51%
High SEC64%57%51%
Average Age48.549.248.5
ABC1 Class70%60%53%

Runnymede and Weybridge ranks #395 for "Leave", #11 for "Right", #351 for "National" and #343 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Runnymede and Weybridge: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Runnymede and Weybridge been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Runnymede and Weybridge

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Esher and Walton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Esher and Walton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Esher and WaltonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ElmbridgeClaygate5,325Esher and Walton2,0175901,203634900143,936
ElmbridgeCobham and Downside4,872Esher and Walton2,413491582543300273,600
ElmbridgeCobham Fairmile3,540Esher and Walton1,695457377422200242,617
ElmbridgeEsher5,000Esher and Walton2,4755594583012700473,696
ElmbridgeHersham North4,462Esher and Walton1,7868215085810700193,299
ElmbridgeHersham South4,736Runnymede and Weybridge2,2745924565810600143,500
ElmbridgeHinchley Wood3,753Esher and Walton1,680518477273800352,775
ElmbridgeLong Ditton4,699Esher and Walton1,6626121,081535200133,473
ElmbridgeMolesey East4,729Esher and Walton2,119648570645800373,496
ElmbridgeMolesey North4,433Esher and Walton1,793759557804900393,277
ElmbridgeMolesey South5,009Esher and Walton1,8211,088611885100443,703
ElmbridgeOxshott and Stoke D'Abernon4,892Esher and Walton2,626434449482900313,617
ElmbridgeThames Ditton4,696Esher and Walton1,8607226256616000393,472
ElmbridgeWalton Ambleside3,112Esher and Walton1,26163932842220092,301
ElmbridgeWalton Central5,042Esher and Walton2,243742574775100403,727
ElmbridgeWalton North4,834Esher and Walton1,8551,020556744200273,574
ElmbridgeWalton South4,931Esher and Walton2,241659599664700333,645
ElmbridgeWeston Green2,874Esher and Walton1,247421361432900242,125
 Total80,939 35,06811,77210,3721,0331,0720051659,833

The full details of these calculations are given on the Esher and Walton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Runnymede and Weybridge

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Runnymede and Weybridge, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Runnymede and WeybridgeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ElmbridgeOatlands Park4,644Runnymede and Weybridge2,140539298901340003,201
ElmbridgeSt George's Hill4,722Runnymede and Weybridge2,38460515651590003,255
ElmbridgeWeybridge North3,189Runnymede and Weybridge1,28149833638450002,198
ElmbridgeWeybridge South3,379Runnymede and Weybridge1,41044235475480002,329
RunnymedeAddlestone Bourneside4,020Runnymede and Weybridge1,5078121931031550002,770
RunnymedeAddlestone North4,328Runnymede and Weybridge1,675967184106520002,984
RunnymedeChertsey Meads4,404Runnymede and Weybridge1,794888190109550003,036
RunnymedeChertsey St Ann's4,447Runnymede and Weybridge1,730968198113570003,066
RunnymedeChertsey South and Row Town3,885Runnymede and Weybridge1,66271316098440002,677
RunnymedeEgham Hythe4,732Runnymede and Weybridge1,7341,140215116570003,262
RunnymedeEgham Town4,686Runnymede and Weybridge1,7961,04724462790003,228
RunnymedeEnglefield Green East3,978Runnymede and Weybridge1,617715163901560002,741
RunnymedeEnglefield Green West3,776Runnymede and Weybridge1,432770157891540002,602
RunnymedeFoxhills4,164Runnymede and Weybridge1,817733165103520002,870
RunnymedeNew Haw4,322Runnymede and Weybridge1,850704260112530002,979
RunnymedeThorpe4,006Spelthorne1,678698199131540002,760
RunnymedeVirginia Water4,341Runnymede and Weybridge2,19252513396460002,992
RunnymedeWoodham3,865Runnymede and Weybridge1,74062316094470002,664
 Total74,888 31,43913,3873,7651,6761,34700051,614

The full details of these calculations are given on the Runnymede and Weybridge seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Runnymede and Weybridge

The new seat of Runnymede and Weybridge is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Runnymede and Weybridge
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ElmbridgeHersham South4,736Esher and Walton2,2745924565810600143,500
ElmbridgeOatlands Park4,644Runnymede and Weybridge2,140539298901340003,201
ElmbridgeSt George's Hill4,722Runnymede and Weybridge2,38460515651590003,255
ElmbridgeWeybridge North3,189Runnymede and Weybridge1,28149833638450002,198
ElmbridgeWeybridge South3,379Runnymede and Weybridge1,41044235475480002,329
RunnymedeAddlestone Bourneside4,020Runnymede and Weybridge1,5078121931031550002,770
RunnymedeAddlestone North4,328Runnymede and Weybridge1,675967184106520002,984
RunnymedeChertsey Meads4,404Runnymede and Weybridge1,794888190109550003,036
RunnymedeChertsey South and Row Town3,885Runnymede and Weybridge1,66271316098440002,677
RunnymedeChertsey St Ann's4,447Runnymede and Weybridge1,730968198113570003,066
RunnymedeEgham Hythe4,732Runnymede and Weybridge1,7341,140215116570003,262
RunnymedeEgham Town4,686Runnymede and Weybridge1,7961,04724462790003,228
RunnymedeEnglefield Green East3,978Runnymede and Weybridge1,617715163901560002,741
RunnymedeEnglefield Green West3,776Runnymede and Weybridge1,432770157891540002,602
RunnymedeFoxhills4,164Runnymede and Weybridge1,817733165103520002,870
RunnymedeNew Haw4,322Runnymede and Weybridge1,850704260112530002,979
RunnymedeVirginia Water4,341Runnymede and Weybridge2,19252513396460002,992
RunnymedeWoodham3,865Runnymede and Weybridge1,74062316094470002,664
 Total75,618 32,03513,2814,0221,6031,399001452,354

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Runnymede and Weybridge. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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