Sevenoaks: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Sevenoaks: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Michael Fallon  (CON)
County/Area:Kent (South East)
Electorate:74,553
Turnout:72.2%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,51464.2%
LAB11,16020.7%
LIB4,3558.1%
UKIP1,9813.7%
Green1,7853.3%
CON Majority23,35443.4%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Sevenoaks been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Sevenoaks: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Sevenoaks

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Sevenoaks

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sevenoaks, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SevenoaksTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green4,513Sevenoaks2,3286222011011280003,380
SevenoaksBrasted, Chevening and Sundridge4,861Sevenoaks2,452486304871210003,450
SevenoaksCrockenhill and Well Hill1,513Sevenoaks5822847787300001,060
SevenoaksDunton Green and Riverhead3,589Sevenoaks1,743531327781050002,784
SevenoaksEynsford1,498Sevenoaks669181852831000994
SevenoaksFarningham, Horton Kirby and South Darenth3,724Sevenoaks1,68064114678950002,640
SevenoaksFawkham and West Kingsdown4,801Sevenoaks2,336633147941130003,323
SevenoaksHalstead, Knockholt and Badgers Mount2,675Sevenoaks1,5252328046310001,914
SevenoaksHextable3,287Sevenoaks1,49746213073860002,248
SevenoaksKemsing3,241Sevenoaks1,459355293170410002,318
SevenoaksOtford and Shoreham3,485Sevenoaks1,602399223184940002,502
SevenoaksSeal and Weald3,045Sevenoaks1,54735224657780002,280
SevenoaksSevenoaks Eastern2,924Sevenoaks1,208501384661010002,260
SevenoaksSevenoaks Kippington3,561Sevenoaks2,02937111260920002,664
SevenoaksSevenoaks Northern3,030Sevenoaks1,42549240868530002,446
SevenoaksSevenoaks Town and St John's4,351Sevenoaks2,1836155101541310003,593
SevenoaksSwanley Christchurch and Swanley Village4,299Sevenoaks1,90489616894850003,147
SevenoaksSwanley St Mary's3,004Sevenoaks1,1561,01012070400002,396
SevenoaksSwanley White Oak4,603Sevenoaks1,7011,2171941041270003,343
SevenoaksWesterham and Crockham Hill3,284Sevenoaks1,619448125195930002,480
 Total69,288 32,64510,7284,2801,8941,67500051,222

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sevenoaks seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tonbridge and Malling

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tonbridge and Malling, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tonbridge and MallingTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,561Tonbridge9091763541260001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,616Tonbridge1,727620122561280002,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,015Tonbridge1,474693102971000002,466
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,690Tonbridge1,0211754119270001,283
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,966Tonbridge93823515422690001,418
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,258Tonbridge2,6648111771711460003,969
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,502Tonbridge1,728603122541270002,634
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,287Tonbridge1,759540356571480002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,305Tonbridge1,74341472851080002,422
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,527Chatham and Malling1,558767382127870002,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,371Tonbridge2,8188301631531930004,157
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,611Tonbridge1,838591128541300002,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,686Tonbridge1,8155332491031330002,833
Tonbridge and MallingJudd3,594Tonbridge1,5848492641201560002,973
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill5,645Chatham and Malling3,191816193167970004,464
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,167Tonbridge1,7349581721231390003,126
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,516Tonbridge1,4579311711101010002,770
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,693Tonbridge1,491858333541530002,889
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,540Tonbridge8752094122550001,202
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,794Chatham and Malling2,0276684361321010003,364
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,273Sevenoaks1,86943275871100002,573
 Total73,617 36,22012,7093,7881,8542,33400056,905

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tonbridge and Malling seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Sevenoaks

The new seat of Sevenoaks is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Sevenoaks
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksAsh and New Ash Green4,688Sevenoaks2,3286222011011280003,380
SevenoaksBrasted, Chevening and Sundridge4,786Sevenoaks2,452486304871210003,450
SevenoaksCrockenhill and Well Hill1,471Sevenoaks5822847787300001,060
SevenoaksDunton Green and Riverhead3,862Sevenoaks1,743531327781050002,784
SevenoaksEynsford1,379Sevenoaks669181852831000994
SevenoaksFarningham, Horton Kirby and South Darenth3,662Sevenoaks1,68064114678950002,640
SevenoaksFawkham and West Kingsdown4,612Sevenoaks2,336633147941130003,323
SevenoaksHalstead, Knockholt and Badgers Mount2,656Sevenoaks1,5252328046310001,914
SevenoaksHextable3,119Sevenoaks1,49746213073860002,248
SevenoaksKemsing3,216Sevenoaks1,459355293170410002,318
SevenoaksOtford and Shoreham3,471Sevenoaks1,602399223184940002,502
SevenoaksSeal and Weald3,162Sevenoaks1,54735224657780002,280
SevenoaksSevenoaks Eastern3,135Sevenoaks1,208501384661010002,260
SevenoaksSevenoaks Kippington3,696Sevenoaks2,02937111260920002,664
SevenoaksSevenoaks Northern3,395Sevenoaks1,42549240868530002,446
SevenoaksSevenoaks Town and St John's4,986Sevenoaks2,1836155101541310003,593
SevenoaksSwanley Christchurch and Swanley Village4,366Sevenoaks1,90489616894850003,147
SevenoaksSwanley St Mary's3,324Sevenoaks1,1561,01012070400002,396
SevenoaksSwanley White Oak4,635Sevenoaks1,7011,2171941041270003,343
SevenoaksWesterham and Crockham Hill3,439Sevenoaks1,619448125195930002,480
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,493Tonbridge and Malling1,86943275871100002,573
 Total74,553 34,51411,1604,3551,9811,78500053,795

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Sevenoaks. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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