St Ives: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

St Ives: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Derek Thomas  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 79,494
Turnout: 75.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,35644.0%
LIB22,23537.1%
LAB11,08718.5%
Green1900.3%
CON Majority4,1216.9%

See overview of other seats in South West.

St Ives : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new St Ives constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Left1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%40%39%
Good Job46%50%51%
High SEC47%52%51%
Average Age53.050.548.5
ABC1 Class47%54%53%

St Ives ranks #278 for "Leave", #382 for "Right" and #380 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

St Ives: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for St Ives been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of St Ives

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Camborne and Redruth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Camborne and RedruthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,972Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,101902960350002,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,650Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2201,2481150380002,621
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,441Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1161,1401170990002,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,430Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9981,13519201390002,464
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,008Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9891,049890320002,159
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,488Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth8487577801040001,787
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,739Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,763789950380002,685
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,894St Ives708569610220001,360
CornwallFour Lanes3,543Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1891,1831300430002,545
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,500St Ives9147171060590001,796
CornwallHayle North3,776St Ives1,2631,2691310490002,712
CornwallHayle South3,325St Ives1,1311,0961190420002,388
CornwallIllogan3,728Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2491,0793100390002,677
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,784Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,3881,1641220450002,719
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,365Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1419093250420002,417
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,589Truro and Newquay1,1341,0113870460002,578
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,269Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9731,249920340002,348
CornwallRedruth Central3,013Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1308981040310002,163
CornwallRedruth North4,762Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,3731,8531410530003,420
CornwallRedruth South3,209Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9951,1591140370002,305
CornwallSt Agnes437Truro and Newquay1571104106000314
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage541St Ives22013713018000388
 Total67,463 23,00021,4232,97801,05100048,452

The full details of these calculations are given on the Camborne and Redruth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: St Ives

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of St Ives, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: St IvesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isles of ScillyBryher67St Ives215250000051
Isles of ScillySt Agnes68St Ives215260000052
Isles of ScillySt Martin's108St Ives3310390000082
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,367St Ives397137505000001,039
Isles of ScillyTresco139St Ives38175000000105
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,467St Ives1,539183911000002,633
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,313St Ives793202761000001,756
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,436St Ives7443091,556000002,609
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,085St Ives38710633100000824
CornwallHelston North3,721St Ives1,4302741,122000002,826
CornwallHelston South4,228St Ives1,3064341,470000003,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay3,067St Ives1,135274920000002,329
CornwallLudgvan3,269St Ives1,303221958000002,482
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,678St Ives1,5102411,042000002,793
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,127St Ives1,1142291,031000002,374
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,425St Ives1,275359967000002,601
CornwallPenzance Central3,215St Ives6677451,029000002,441
CornwallPenzance East3,644St Ives7208621,184000002,766
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,958St Ives744509993000002,246
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,363St Ives1,0893101,155000002,554
CornwallSt Buryan3,748St Ives1,4043841,058000002,846
CornwallSt Ives East2,933St Ives1,002256969000002,227
CornwallSt Ives West3,376St Ives9534661,145000002,564
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,721St Ives8725331,421000002,826
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,935St Ives1,6232281,137000002,988
 Total67,458 22,1207,29921,8050000051,224

The full details of these calculations are given on the St Ives seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: St Ives

The new seat of St Ives is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: St Ives
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBreage, Germoe and Sithney3,467St Ives1,539183911000002,633
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,894Camborne and Redruth708569610220001,360
CornwallCrowan and Wendron2,313St Ives793202761000001,756
CornwallGulval and Heamoor3,436St Ives7443091,556000002,609
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,500Camborne and Redruth9147171060590001,796
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth1,085St Ives38710633100000824
CornwallHayle North3,776Camborne and Redruth1,2631,2691310490002,712
CornwallHayle South3,325Camborne and Redruth1,1311,0961190420002,388
CornwallHelston North3,721St Ives1,4302741,122000002,826
CornwallHelston South4,228St Ives1,3064341,470000003,210
CornwallLelant and Carbis Bay3,067St Ives1,135274920000002,329
CornwallLudgvan3,269St Ives1,303221958000002,482
CornwallMarazion and Perranuthnoe3,678St Ives1,5102411,042000002,793
CornwallMullion and Grade-Ruan3,127St Ives1,1142291,031000002,374
CornwallNewlyn and Mousehole3,425St Ives1,275359967000002,601
CornwallPenzance Central3,215St Ives6677451,029000002,441
CornwallPenzance East3,644St Ives7208621,184000002,766
CornwallPenzance Promenade2,958St Ives744509993000002,246
CornwallPorthleven and Helston West3,363St Ives1,0893101,155000002,554
CornwallSt Buryan3,748St Ives1,4043841,058000002,846
CornwallSt Ives East2,933St Ives1,002256969000002,227
CornwallSt Ives West3,376St Ives9534661,145000002,564
CornwallSt Just In Penwith3,721St Ives8725331,421000002,826
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage541Camborne and Redruth22013713018000388
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage3,935St Ives1,6232281,137000002,988
Isles of ScillyBryher67St Ives215250000051
Isles of ScillySt Agnes68St Ives215260000052
Isles of ScillySt Martin's108St Ives3310390000082
Isles of ScillySt Mary's1,367St Ives397137505000001,039
Isles of ScillyTresco139St Ives38175000000105
 Total79,494 26,35611,08722,235019000059,868

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of St Ives.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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