Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ruth Smeeth  (LAB)
County/Area: Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 77,687
Turnout: 58.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB22,37149.6%
CON20,94646.4%
LIB9352.1%
Green6941.5%
UKIP1130.3%
MIN460.1%
OTH110.0%
LAB Majority1,4253.2%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position3° Left3° Right
National Position17° Nat7° Nat
EU Leave %72%59%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health42%45%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education25%35%39%
Good Job37%48%51%
High SEC34%46%51%
Average Age48.848.748.5
ABC1 Class36%49%53%

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove ranks #9 for "Leave", #366 for "Right" and #14 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Staffordshire Moorlands

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Staffordshire Moorlands, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Staffordshire MoorlandsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,968Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,1467434203004602,007
Staffordshire MoorlandsAlton1,150Staffordshire Moorlands55918612050170779
Staffordshire MoorlandsBagnall and Stanley1,324Staffordshire Moorlands649180350120180894
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph East5,411Staffordshire Moorlands1,4741,96776025011803,660
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph Moor1,401Staffordshire Moorlands59527324070490948
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph North4,193Staffordshire Moorlands1,639809221018014902,836
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph South1,453Staffordshire Moorlands51836260040390983
Staffordshire MoorlandsBiddulph West4,448Staffordshire Moorlands1,4991,26263051013303,008
Staffordshire MoorlandsBrown Edge and Endon4,196Staffordshire Moorlands1,73379420104706402,839
Staffordshire MoorlandsCaverswall1,474Staffordshire Moorlands70823418060300996
Staffordshire MoorlandsCellarhead2,780Staffordshire Moorlands1,3534364301403401,880
Staffordshire MoorlandsCheddleton4,595Staffordshire Moorlands2,12474569049012103,108
Staffordshire MoorlandsChurnet2,653Staffordshire Moorlands1,1924803401207601,794
Staffordshire MoorlandsDane1,331Staffordshire Moorlands67519213060140900
Staffordshire MoorlandsHamps Valley1,570Staffordshire Moorlands746249160604501,062
Staffordshire MoorlandsHorton1,514Staffordshire Moorlands770213180701601,024
Staffordshire MoorlandsIpstones1,518Staffordshire Moorlands642305170605701,027
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek East4,238Staffordshire Moorlands1,5691,010119055011402,867
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek North4,591Staffordshire Moorlands1,2511,6747004806303,106
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek South4,897Staffordshire Moorlands1,5921,391127064013903,313
Staffordshire MoorlandsLeek West3,968Staffordshire Moorlands1,62076215804909602,685
Staffordshire MoorlandsManifold1,588Staffordshire Moorlands787244170701901,074
Staffordshire MoorlandsWerrington2,751Staffordshire Moorlands1,1206224101206601,861
 Total66,012 25,96115,1331,494054001,523044,651

The full details of these calculations are given on the Staffordshire Moorlands seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend6,794Stoke-on-Trent Central1,5112,025262385100193,870
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,222Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove9957061710080091,835
Stoke-on-TrentBentilee and Ubberley7,547Stoke-on-Trent Central1,5092,459282621900204,297
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park7,527Stoke-on-Trent Central1,7652,2141221352600244,286
Stoke-on-TrentBoothen and Oak Hill4,356Stoke-on-Trent Central1,0321,172731533600142,480
Stoke-on-TrentEaton Park3,149Stoke-on-Trent Central6989932758800101,794
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley3,154Stoke-on-Trent Central5831,0653686220041,796
Stoke-on-TrentFenton West and Mount Pleasant0 000000000
Stoke-on-TrentHanford and Trentham3Stoke-on-Trent South and Stone110000002
Stoke-on-TrentHanley Park and Shelton4,494Stoke-on-Trent Central7721,55076564800572,559
Stoke-on-TrentHartshill and Basford4,559Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1071,225671464000112,596
Stoke-on-TrentJoiner's Square3,534Stoke-on-Trent Central7131,093511133100122,013
Stoke-on-TrentPenkhull and Stoke4,516Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1521,20773774800152,572
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green764Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove2022096132002434
Stoke-on-TrentSpringfields and Trent Vale4,576Stoke-on-Trent Central1,1461,163761703700132,605
 Total58,195 13,18617,0826781,6073760021033,139

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stoke-on-Trent Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stoke-on-Trent North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stoke-on-Trent NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,171Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0431,246500690002,408
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove5,098Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,3221,504560620002,944
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,066Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove938768440210001,771
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,898Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove785784860180001,673
Stoke-on-TrentAbbey Hulton and Townsend17Stoke-on-Trent Central4500100010
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,480Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove3,1422,1561140620005,474
Stoke-on-TrentBirches Head and Central Forest Park40Stoke-on-Trent Central101210000023
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath4,059Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove9301,352370250002,344
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,679Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0941,533420330002,702
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,100Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove9771,234630930002,367
Stoke-on-TrentEtruria and Hanley1,577Stoke-on-Trent Central29754045029000911
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,400Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,2631,198510280002,540
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,318Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,1041,329380230002,494
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,624Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove2,1182,1261040540004,402
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,709Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0971,537500340002,718
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft4,525Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove8791,609420830002,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,151Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove887865440220001,818
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall4,455Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove1,0241,472490270002,572
 Total72,367 18,91421,270916068400041,784

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stoke-on-Trent North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove

The new seat of Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle-under-LymeButt Lane4,171Stoke-on-Trent North1,0431,246500690002,408
Newcastle-under-LymeKidsgrove5,098Stoke-on-Trent North1,3221,504560620002,944
Newcastle-under-LymeNewchapel2,968Staffordshire Moorlands1,1467434203004602,007
Newcastle-under-LymeRavenscliffe3,066Stoke-on-Trent North938768440210001,771
Newcastle-under-LymeTalke2,898Stoke-on-Trent North785784860180001,673
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton3,222Stoke-on-Trent Central9957061710080091,835
Stoke-on-TrentBaddeley, Milton and Norton9,480Stoke-on-Trent North3,1422,1561140620005,474
Stoke-on-TrentBradeley and Chell Heath4,059Stoke-on-Trent North9301,352370250002,344
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Central4,679Stoke-on-Trent North1,0941,533420330002,702
Stoke-on-TrentBurslem Park4,100Stoke-on-Trent North9771,234630930002,367
Stoke-on-TrentFord Green and Smallthorne4,400Stoke-on-Trent North1,2631,198510280002,540
Stoke-on-TrentGoldenhill and Sandyford4,318Stoke-on-Trent North1,1041,329380230002,494
Stoke-on-TrentGreat Chell and Packmoor7,624Stoke-on-Trent North2,1182,1261040540004,402
Stoke-on-TrentLittle Chell and Stanfield4,709Stoke-on-Trent North1,0971,537500340002,718
Stoke-on-TrentMoorcroft4,525Stoke-on-Trent North8791,609420830002,613
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green764Stoke-on-Trent Central2022096132002434
Stoke-on-TrentSneyd Green3,151Stoke-on-Trent North887865440220001,818
Stoke-on-TrentTunstall4,455Stoke-on-Trent North1,0241,472490270002,572
 Total77,687 20,94622,3719351136940461145,116

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stoke-on-Trent North and Kidsgrove. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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