Thetford and Downham Market: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Thetford and Downham Market: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Elizabeth Truss  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 74,072
Turnout: 66.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,37061.3%
LAB14,11628.5%
UKIP2,4955.0%
LIB2,4655.0%
Green1030.2%
OTH320.1%
CON Majority16,25432.8%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Thetford and Downham Market : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Thetford and Downham Market constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right9° Right
National Position19° Nat7° Nat
EU Leave %68%56%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born90%89%88%
Good Education28%37%39%
Good Job42%53%51%
High SEC43%53%51%
Average Age50.749.448.5
ABC1 Class43%55%53%

Thetford and Downham Market ranks #33 for "Leave", #55 for "Right" and #8 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thetford and Downham Market: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Thetford and Downham Market been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Thetford and Downham Market

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireDownham Villages3,330Cambridgeshire North East1,61034563452600142,103
East CambridgeshireLittleport East3,973Thetford and Downham Market1,595554199608200192,509
East CambridgeshireLittleport West2,580Thetford and Downham Market9084391451032100131,629
East CambridgeshireSutton2,969Cambridgeshire North East1,098424162116640091,873
FenlandBassenhally3,726Cambridgeshire North East1,50758017459280052,353
FenlandBenwick, Coates and Eastrea3,349Cambridgeshire North East1,5743794648590072,113
FenlandBirch2,076Cambridgeshire North East8143029876160041,310
FenlandClarkson1,777Cambridgeshire North East5924003473170061,122
FenlandDoddington and Wimblington3,315Cambridgeshire North East1,6163445550230052,093
FenlandElm and Christchurch3,624Cambridgeshire North East1,46853751147750092,287
FenlandKirkgate1,706Cambridgeshire North East6792763373130031,077
FenlandLattersey2,078Cambridgeshire North East9752494031140021,311
FenlandManea1,675Cambridgeshire North East7931962425110091,058
FenlandMarch East5,540Cambridgeshire North East1,9391,1761072044600263,498
FenlandMarch North5,969Cambridgeshire North East2,2479143429713000383,768
FenlandMarch West5,228Cambridgeshire North East2,084910938510500253,302
FenlandMedworth1,731Cambridgeshire North East6303293468290031,093
FenlandOctavia Hill3,979Cambridgeshire North East1,40684868151320072,512
FenlandParson Drove and Wisbech St Mary3,680Cambridgeshire North East1,54751417658240042,323
FenlandPeckover1,769Cambridgeshire North East7272723269140021,116
FenlandRoman Bank4,764Cambridgeshire North East2,029667731913300143,007
FenlandSt Andrews1,885Cambridgeshire North East82324442314000101,190
FenlandSlade Lode1,918Cambridgeshire North East8892353629150091,213
FenlandStaithe2,032Cambridgeshire North East7184263784150031,283
FenlandStonald1,857Cambridgeshire North East7832408629310021,171
FenlandThe Mills2,115Cambridgeshire North East1,0092304033160081,336
FenlandWaterlees Village4,158Cambridgeshire North East1,57684464823100282,625
FenlandWenneye1,605Cambridgeshire North East7081962958130091,013
 Total84,408 34,34413,0702,3832,1751,0230029353,288

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,152Thetford and Downham Market1,92159210917300002,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,963Thetford and Downham Market2,6201,03313822200004,013
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,987Thetford and Downham Market759422698600001,336
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,337Thetford and Downham Market947518644400001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,567Thetford and Downham Market1,5995659714000002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,801Thetford and Downham Market914233333200001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,850Thetford and Downham Market806306538000001,245
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,557Thetford and Downham Market658309493200001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,891Thetford and Downham Market925271393800001,273
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,633Thetford and Downham Market681302457100001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,576Thetford and Downham Market1,6445398813600002,407
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton1,988Norfolk North West1,000261393800001,338
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,846Thetford and Downham Market6643941057800001,241
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,578Thetford and Downham Market664274507300001,061
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,882Thetford and Downham Market969226383400001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,715Thetford and Downham Market736307436700001,153
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,185Norfolk Mid1,060275567900001,470
BrecklandAshill558Norfolk Mid2468718240000375
BrecklandBedingfield2,252Thetford and Downham Market1,150278474100001,516
BrecklandForest2,267Thetford and Downham Market1,054378514200001,525
BrecklandGuiltcross2,209Norfolk Mid1,024376493800001,487
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,269Norfolk Mid1,152279554200001,528
BrecklandLaunditch26Norfolk Mid13300000016
BrecklandNar Valley1,884Thetford and Downham Market848292527700001,269
BrecklandSwaffham5,456Thetford and Downham Market2,62380713211100003,673
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,116Norfolk Mid52817727190000751
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,817Thetford and Downham Market1,30088822016200002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,473Thetford and Downham Market1,2511,41616318100003,011
BrecklandThetford Castle4,608Thetford and Downham Market1,6251,03125319300003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,427Thetford and Downham Market1,5091,74218321900003,653
 Total77,870 32,89014,5812,3652,572000052,408

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Thetford and Downham Market

The new seat of Thetford and Downham Market is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Thetford and Downham Market
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandBedingfield2,252Norfolk South West1,150278474100001,516
BrecklandForest2,267Norfolk South West1,054378514200001,525
BrecklandNar Valley1,884Norfolk South West848292527700001,269
BrecklandSwaffham5,456Norfolk South West2,62380713211100003,673
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,817Norfolk South West1,30088822016200002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,473Norfolk South West1,2511,41616318100003,011
BrecklandThetford Castle4,608Norfolk South West1,6251,03125319300003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,427Norfolk South West1,5091,74218321900003,653
East CambridgeshireLittleport East3,973Cambridgeshire North East1,595554199608200192,509
East CambridgeshireLittleport West2,580Cambridgeshire North East9084391451032100131,629
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,152Norfolk South West1,92159210917300002,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,963Norfolk South West2,6201,03313822200004,013
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,987Norfolk South West759422698600001,336
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,337Norfolk South West947518644400001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,567Norfolk South West1,5995659714000002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,801Norfolk South West914233333200001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,850Norfolk South West806306538000001,245
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,557Norfolk South West658309493200001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,633Norfolk South West681302457100001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,891Norfolk South West925271393800001,273
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,576Norfolk South West1,6445398813600002,407
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,846Norfolk South West6643941057800001,241
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,578Norfolk South West664274507300001,061
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,882Norfolk South West969226383400001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,715Norfolk South West736307436700001,153
 Total74,072 30,37014,1162,4652,495103003249,581

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Thetford and Downham Market. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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